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Daily SPX (每日S&P500大盘走势)-Futures Options Recommend
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 上午6:14    标题: Daily SPX (每日S&P500大盘走势)-Futures Options Recommend 引用回复

ST (Short-Term = 3~5 days): Oversold
IT (Intermediate-Term = 3~5 weeks): Overbought
LT (Long-Term = 3~6 months): Bull Market Breakdown

Recommended Actions for 10/20/2004:
Selling doesn't seem to be completed yet. So wait till the market gets to more
extreme before jumping in. No actions (neither SPX calls nor puts writing).
For those more adventurous, may Sell-to-Open Dec 850 Puts

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!


上一次由LonesomeK于2004-12-25 周六, 下午8:36修改,总共修改了8次
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lintou






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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 上午11:41    标题: Re: Daily SPX Market Trend 引用回复

Interesting thread and good post. I like you giving the outlook opinion.

It seems you are very safe on position (Dec 850 put).

Looking forward to hearing more from you and good luck.
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午12:01    标题: 引用回复

To me, it is not too important to do serveral "big" winning trades throughout my
investment, Rather, I chase after retrieving consistent returns from the markets.
Again, the key is consistency and the trade-off between the potential gains and the risk.

I have posted couple other messages in 熊牛's "My SPX Options Positions" and Fatcash's
"Index Trading Thread" to explain my basis.

To an investor, resources such as capital/money/seed investment are always limited.
On the other hand, opportunities in the markets are always plentiful. Therefore, we can
NOT afford wasting our resouces, but we can afford letting go some of the opportunities.
Capital preservation is the top priority throughout my investment. I pretty much
consistently take in 25~30% annual returns without incurring too much un-wanted
risks.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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ferrjs






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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午12:25    标题: 引用回复

LonesomeK 写道:
To me, it is not too important to do serveral "big" winning trades throughout my
investment, Rather, I chase after retrieving consistent returns from the markets.
Again, the key is consistency and the trade-off between the potential gains and the risk.

I have posted couple other messages in 熊牛's "My SPX Options Positions" and Fatcash's
"Index Trading Thread" to explain my basis.

To an investor, resources such as capital/money/seed investment are always limited.
On the other hand, opportunities in the markets are always plentiful. Therefore, we can
NOT afford wasting our resouces, but we can afford letting go some of the opportunities.
Capital preservation is the top priority throughout my investment. I pretty much
consistently take in 25~30% annual returns without incurring too much un-wanted
risks.


thanks.
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午6:06    标题: 引用回复

If there are enough interest, I will try to post our daily summary results (when I can find the time and means).
_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午6:39    标题: 引用回复

In the "炒股忠言!", kkk2008 suggested:

"潜水一段时间,看了很多网友的帖子。给大家一句忠言:
经过一番蛮干之后,有了一定经验,无论输赢大家都必须思考的问题:
你有信心重复你的赢钱经历吗?你对明天能否挣到钱感到压力吗?
无法回答以上问题之前,最好先远离股市!
至于未来有两条路:
1)永远离开股市。因为无法回答以上两个问题继续下去终究会输光。
2)找出问题,方法再用坚强的毅力继续实践。

偈语:股市其实跟拉斯维加斯赌场没有很大的区别。开盘之后每一个股票就像一个赌局,有赌大小,有赌牌面,请思考终究挣钱的是谁?谁是赌徒?谁是庄家?是怎样的牌局?你有机会最后笑着离开吗?在股市下注跟在CASINO下注的区别在哪里?如何才能赢到最后?
祝大家好运!"

I agree with the suggestions for the most part. As indicated in many of those books
on stock markets investment, only 20%+ of the investors will come out winning in
the long run, and the rest 80%- will lose some of their seed capitals. This is based on
the assumption that investing in the stock markets is a "zero-sum" game.

On the other hand, investing in the markets gives people hope that they can
whip some handsome returns at the end if they pay "enough" tuitions (meaning:
incurring big enough losses).

You know, if you keep on working as an employee for someone else for the rest of
your life, you would pretty much know exactly where you will end up financially 10, 20,
30 years from now. There is a saying in Chinese/Cantonese: "工字不出头." It is very
hard for an employee to get ahead on the corporate ladder if one doesn't have the
inside track. Investing in the stock markets is one of the ways for people to reach the
promising land. Keep in mind that there are always risks in whatever we do. For instance,
operating a restaurant, the failure rate in the first two years is higher than 85~90%
based on government published data.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!


上一次由LonesomeK于2004-10-20 周三, 下午9:14修改,总共修改了1次
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午9:09    标题: for 10/21/2004 引用回复

ST (Short-Term = 3~5 days): Oversold
IT (Intermediate-Term = 3~5 weeks): Overbought
LT (Long-Term = 3~6 months): Bull Market Breakdown

Recommended Actions for 10/21/2004:
The SPX seems to be poised for a short-term rebound. Sell-to-Open Dec 850 Puts.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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lintou






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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午9:31    标题: 引用回复

LonesomeK 写道:

To an investor, resources such as capital/money/seed investment are always limited.
On the other hand, opportunities in the markets are always plentiful. Therefore, we can
NOT afford wasting our resouces, but we can afford letting go some of the opportunities.
Capital preservation is the top priority

.


精辟!!!!!!!
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8WW



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文章时间: 2004-10-20 周三, 下午9:47    标题: 引用回复

lintou 写道:
LonesomeK 写道:

To an investor, resources such as capital/money/seed investment are always limited.
On the other hand, opportunities in the markets are always plentiful. Therefore, we can
NOT afford wasting our resouces, but we can afford letting go some of the opportunities.
Capital preservation is the top priority

.


精辟!!!!!!!


Good stuff! Keep it coming!

Totally agreed, but it's easier said than done. "I'll wager that a huge number of decisions that everyone makes in the markets are based as much on fear of missing an opportunity as upon any other consideration. And not only in the markets, but probably more generally in life as well."

_________________
风险第一,自主判断,把握热点,顺利退场
Knowledge and patience are not conflicting values - they go hand in hand.
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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 上午12:36    标题: 引用回复

Yes, it is easier said than done. That is the exact reason that I urge people to
be patient.

If this opportunity passes by you and you miss it, let it go and don't chase after
it unless warranted. Wait for the next one that certainly will along before long.
Of course, you need to have certain rules and models in place to recognize the
opportunities. As mentioned in your quote, fear is one of the two sources getting
people in trouble in both life and investing.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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8WW



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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 下午12:57    标题: 引用回复

LonesomeK 写道:
As mentioned in your quote, fear is one of the two sources getting
people in trouble in both life and investing.


What's the other reason? Greed? Hope? Laughing

_________________
风险第一,自主判断,把握热点,顺利退场
Knowledge and patience are not conflicting values - they go hand in hand.
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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 下午1:55    标题: 引用回复

Bingo! It is "GREED".

Together, greed and desperation (fear), these two emotional elements form the
fundamental weakness in our decision making process. I found something said by
Peter Lynch is awakening. I forgot where I read from and how exactly he put it. It
roughly goes like, "when you invest in the stock markets, you are not fighting the
markets or the other investors. Rather, you are fighting against your own self and
the weaknesses inside of you."

Therefore, many stocks trading rules and/or models have been developed to minimize
the effects and influence of these elements. One hopes that one day we could reach
the status of being "cold-blooded" investors: all trading/investment decisions are
not affected by any personal emotions. Again, it is easier said than done.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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8WW



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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 下午7:48    标题: 引用回复

Excellent posts, as always!

From an experienced respectful trader, as I quote, "In the long run, nobody makes money in the markets if one proceeds on the basis of arrogance and greed. And yes, those are two vices with which Warren Buffett has never had to battle."

_________________
风险第一,自主判断,把握热点,顺利退场
Knowledge and patience are not conflicting values - they go hand in hand.
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 下午11:06    标题: for 10/22/2004 引用回复

ST (Short-Term = 3~5 days): Neutral Up
IT (Intermediate-Term = 3~5 weeks): Overbought
LT (Long-Term = 3~6 months): Bull Market Breakdown

Recommended Actions for 10/21/2004:
There is still some head room.
SPX seems to be in a short-term rebound.
Sell-to-Open Dec 875 Puts & 900 Puts (but don't be greedy though, because it
is not the time to go all full force out yet).

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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LonesomeK
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文章时间: 2004-10-21 周四, 下午11:26    标题: 引用回复

At this time, the markets are quite complacent and yet volatility is ready to
increase at any time soon. Therefore the index futures options have rather
low premiums. For most conservative investors, they tend to stay on the sideline
and wait. I feel that as a result of this uncertainty, we should stay as lightly
loaded as targeted so as to minimize the potential risk while at the same time
still picking up a bit of returns from the market.

By the way, kkk2008 asked the question regarding the Quantum Fund in another
thread "炒股忠言". I recall the Quantum Fund is related to George Soros. On
the other hand, Warren Buffett operates the Berkshire Hawthaway, Inc. Hope
this helps.

In addition, I realize there are some people who may not be very conversant
with the terms and investment vehicle discussed in my posts (or, any comments
and/or questions for that matter). Just ask. I will try to provide answers to
the best of my ability/knowledge. If I don't know or don't have an answer, I
will also say so.

Best wishes to everyone.

p.s. Is this website accessible from inside China, say, Beijing and Guangzhou? Thanks.

_________________
Life is both Grand and Simple.
Happy Trading and Investing!!!
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