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先知先觉大本营:Soros,李嘉诚,PIMCO and market wizards
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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午6:22    标题: 先知先觉大本营:Soros,李嘉诚,PIMCO and market wizards 引用回复

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上一次由纯属误会于2013-9-15 周日, 下午11:37修改,总共修改了2次
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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午7:45    标题: 引用回复

Forecaster of the Month

June 11, 2010, 12:05 a.m. EDT
Brusca's predictions are anything but jokes
Top forecaster known for his aphorisms, metaphors and humor
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=0405F70F-BD60-449D-B21A-D3567ED10CEC


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Long-time Wall Street fixture Bob Brusca may be beloved most for his lively language and sense of humor, but his economic forecasts in May were no joke.

His accuracy on 10 key indicators released last month propelled him to the top as he won his first forecaster of the month award from MarketWatch.

Brusca nailed three of the 10 numbers and got pretty close on three others to beat 47 other forecasters in the monthly contest, which is designed to honor those who do the best job of forecasting the numbers that mean the most to the markets.

Brusca's been watching markets, the Fed and the economy since 1977. He's seen actual inflation. He's seen a real double-dip recession up close. He remembers the mark and the franc.

Brusca started Fact and Opinion Economics about four or five years ago to provide institutional investors with his own unique perspective on Wall Street and the economy. He earned his doctorate at Michigan State after getting his undergraduate degree at cross-state rival Michigan.

He was recruited by the New York Fed and the Central Intelligence Agency, but chose the Fed because, he says, he didn't have a trench coat. After five years at the Fed, he was chief of the international economics division and ready to move to the private-sector. He worked at Irving Trust and was chief U.S. economist for Nikko Securities for years before setting out on his own with first one consultancy, then another.

On the Street, Brusca's probably best known for the way he slices through dense rhetoric and self-serving arguments with aphorisms and metaphors, not to mention those awful puns. Brusca says a sense of humor is vital in a business where so many people take themselves so seriously.

"Humor is a way of opening your mind," he says. "The arguments some people make are so hilariously stupid" that sometimes humor is the best way to deflate them.

Many of these "hilariously stupid" arguments are actually thinly veiled attempts to justify a trading strategy. For instance, traders said they were selling off the euro because they were afraid Greece wouldn't get help. Then they sold off the euro because it was getting help. Then they sold off the euro when they decided the help was too much.

"Have you ever heard such a batch of silly nonsense?" Brusca wrote in a recent note to clients. "If you ever wanted evidence that market analysis chases after the facts, vindicating the trades that already are in place in the market, this is it. I've told my daughter more believable bed-time stories."

Sometimes the right metaphor can point to the flaws in your own thinking. Brusca says he's not afraid to change his forecasts, because they aren't pronouncements from the oracle, but just a viewpoint that needs constant tweaking to take new information into account.

For now, Brusca is pretty optimistic about the U.S. economy. He thinks we're heading for better growth and higher employment than most analysts are forecasting.

"We need to have 300,000 or 400,000 jobs per month to make progress on the high unemployment rate," he said. He thinks that's do-able, based on historical experience.

He says the economy will move into self-reinforcing mode, where job growth boosts incomes, which will be spent and thus create more jobs.

"It's a bunch of malarkey" to think the savings rate will magically rise, he said. "People will do what they always do: Spend every penny and then some."

"When the economy has been weak, people have a hard time understanding how it can get better, but it always does," he wrote recently.

The runners-up in the May contest were all former winners: Stu Hoffman of PNC Financial, Stephen Gallagher and Aneta Markowska of Societe Generale, Neal Soss's team at Credit Suisse, and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley.

The median forecasts that MarketWatch publishes each week in the Economic Calendar come from the forecasts of the 10 economists who've scored the highest in our contest over the past 12 months, as well as the forecast of the most recent winner.

Over the past year, the top economists are, in order:

Nigel Gault and Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight;
Maury Harris's team at UBS;
the team at RBS Securities now led by Michelle Girard and formerly headed by Stephen Stanley;
Aaron Smith and Ryan Sweet of Moody's Economy.com;
Spencer Staples of EconAlpha;
Ethan Harris's team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch;
Peter D'Antonio of Citigroup;
David Wyss and Beth Ann Bovino of Standard & Poor's;
John Silvia's team at Wells Fargo Securities; and
David Resler's team at Nomura Securities.

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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午7:50    标题: 引用回复


Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis
(Update2)


June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen and governments are pressured to curb budget deficits that may push the global economy back into recession.

The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”

Soros, 79, said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s with governments under pressure to narrow their budget deficits at a time when the economic recovery is weak.

Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance, according to Bank of America Corp.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.

Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion correctly betting against the British pound. He also wagered that Germany’s mark would appreciate after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and that Japanese stocks would start to fall in the same year. His firm, Soros Fund Management LLC, manages about $25 billion.

Credit default swaps, which aim to protect bondholders against the risk of a default, are dangerous and a “license to kill,” Soros said today. CDSs should only be allowed if there is an insurable interest, he said.

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文章时间: 2010-8-06 周五, 下午2:35    标题: 引用回复


美股评论:股市的国会效应

2010年08月05日


  【MarketWatch弗吉尼亚8月5日讯】预计到本周末的时候,股市将得到一股强大的推动力。这是因为国会的八月假期就要开始了,而他们回到国会山则要等到劳动节过去之后。

  这些与市场之间难道有什么关系么?答案是显然有关,而且关系不小。整体而言,当国会休假的时候,股市的表现要比其他时间好出不少。

  几年之前,辛辛那提大学的弗古森(Michael Ferguson)和密苏里大学的惠特(Hugh Douglas Witte)两位教授进行过一次这方面的研究。他们的研究结果之一就是,“道琼斯工业平均指数史上大约90%的回报率都是来自于国会休会期间。

  具体而言,两位教授指出,道指自1897年至2004年期间,在国会休会期的年平均回报率为5.3%,而在国会正常运转期间的年平均回报率却只有0.4%。

  毋庸赘言,这种所谓的“国会效应”也完全有可能只不过是统计数据层面一种有趣的偶然现象而已。归根结底,国会是否休假和股市表现之间的关联程度还没有达到统计学家所严格要求的必需水平,因此还不能做出确实存在某种模式的结论。

  不过,在两位教授看来,这可绝非只是巧合。当国会在开会的时候,企业和投资者就不得不面对“变数更大的税收和监管环境”,这就意味着风险要比国会休假期间来得更高。

  两位教授指出,正如他们在统计研究中所发现的,当国会开会时,股票市场的整体波动性也要来得更加明显,而众所周知,波动性正是变数的一个优秀指标。

  为此,两位教授引用了罗杰斯(Will Rogers)1930年的一段名言,“当国会在开会的时候,这个国家的感觉和我们看到一个婴儿握住一把铁锤时毫无两样。剩下的,只是在我们将铁锤夺过来之前,他能够造成多大破坏的问题。”

  两位教授并不认为自己的发现只是偶然,还有另外一个原因:当国会在民意调查中的支持率来得较低时,这一趋势就表现得较为明显。他们还专门指出,当国会的支持率低于39%时,所谓国会效应的影响尤其巨大。

  这一点对于我们今日的市场也非常关键,意味着我们这一次很可能从国会的休会当中得到更多的好处。根据PollingReport.com提供的数据,在过去六周当中进行的若干次民意调查显示,国会当前的支持率一直在19%至24%之间徘徊。

  整体而言,从那些纯粹的学院派研究当中,我们可以获得一个重要的投资经验,即股市常常对某些因素非常敏感,而这些因素却是多数投资者正常情况之下根本不会注意到的。比如这个研究就告诉我们,我们想要了解纽约证交所当中正在发生的事情,就必须先了解国会山正在发生的事情。

  (本文作者:Mark Hulbert)

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文章时间: 2010-8-07 周六, 下午9:10    标题: 引用回复


泡沫型复苏:Titanic上最后的Waltz

今年第四季度市场的压力不会小,所以乐观中要警惕,保持一个灵活的心态。
在熊市里搏反弹,见好就收很重要,该放手就得放手,务必戒贪戒鲁戒固执。



The Big Picture:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/follow-up-on-temp-services-hiring/


Follow Up On Temp Services Hiring
By Invictus - August 7th, 2010, 10:00AM

You may recall that last month we picked up on a troubling signpost in the divergence between temporary hiring and private sector payrolls (less temps).
In that post, I produced the following chart (below is from last month’s post, not updated with most current data):



I wrote:

But here’s the thing: Temp jobs are now up 19.6% year over year, a record for the series going back to 1990 (when BLS began tracking it). Private sector jobs less temp jobs are still down 0.7% year over year. Historically — and I’ll admit going back only to 1990 isn’t a particularly robust data set — when temp jobs are up over 10% year over year, private sector jobs (less temp jobs) are running in the range, on average, of +2.4% YoY, not -0.7%. In the 20 year history of the series, never has the year over year gain been 10% or more while the private sector (ex-temp) has been negative.

Again, we may have a problem on our hands as the growth in temporary jobs has run away from the growth of the private sector. Now, temp jobs could continue setting YoY records — I wouldn’t rule that out at all. However, we do need to see the private sector start to kick into gear and play some serious catch up. As I’ve groused many times before, we’re starting to see late-cycle prints in some series, and we’ve barely even begun to put people to work. Very troublesome, to say the least.


Well, Temp Services declined by 5.6k this month in Friday’s NFP report, and the WSJ was all over it:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/08/06/does-the-drop-in-temps-signal-trouble-ahead/?KEYWORDS=temp

Does the Drop in Temps Signal Trouble Ahead?

Temporary-help employment is generally considered a leading indicator for the overall labor market. So July’s decline in temp payrolls is a worrisome indicator for the coming months.


Again, many metrics now have a distinct late-cycle feel to them. Temp Services, for example, is starting to run into some difficult comps, as are many other data points (including, eventually, corporate earnings, which are still coming off a fairly low bar).

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文章时间: 2010-8-08 周日, 上午5:58    标题: 引用回复


naked capitalism:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/08/small-business-sentiment-hits-new-low.html
(Read onto some comments followed in details and examples。。。)


Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Small Business Sentiment Hits New Low


Reader Scott provides yet another example of the disconnect between the cautiously optimistic stock market and those on the economic front lines. A Wells Fargo/Gallup survey of 604 small business owners conducted in early July showed a plunge in already negative readings to new lows. This gloomy outlook matters because small businesses were the biggest source in job creation in the last upturn and are expected again to be the main source of hiring.



Even worse, small business owners expect things to get worse. The main reason for the decline in the index was the decay in the Future Expectations subindex, which is the first time business owners as a whole have been negative about their companies’ prospects for the upcoming year:



42% of respondents anticipate it will be “somewhat” or “very difficult” to borrow, and 22% forecast their financial condition a year out as “somewhat” or “very bad.”

Gallup noted:

The Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index seems to be something of a precursor of future economy activity. It peaked at the end of 2006; matched that peak once more in June 2007 (Double Topped?); consistently declined thereafter as the recession deepened, before bottoming out in mid-2009; and finally, improved modestly until its July 2010 decline.



*******************************************************************************

Gallup Small Business Index:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/141692/wells-fargo-gallup-small-business-index-hits-new-low-july.aspx
(Read on for the details and its implications)



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文章时间: 2010-8-10 周二, 下午12:00    标题: 引用回复


从统计学意义上,美总统任期第三年是股市利好
(19次利好,不等于第20次也一样。就像以前19次白人总统,不能保证第20次也是白人总统一个道理。。。)


  对于那些比较关心美国政治的人们而言,眼下最牵扯他们视线的无疑是将于十一月开始的中期选举了。

  事实上,股市也可以说是最关心这类政治问题的所在之一,而且交易者们常常等不及事情到来,就已经在提前消化各种潜在的可能性了,现在的市场行情某种程度上说来就是在对奥巴马政府第三年任期可能发生的事情进行预测。

  比如说,各种统计资料都显示,总统任期的第三年往往都是这四年周期当中最强势的一年,股市在最近几周当中之所以呈现出良好的势头,一定程度上显然也与这一因素有关。比如上周四就是一个例子,开盘时,由于就业数字大大不及预期,道琼斯工业平均指数一度下跌近70点之多,然而到收盘时,市场却成功地挽回了大部分损失,只下跌了5点而已。

  不过,哪怕有这样的历史规律撑腰,我们也不应该随随便便就感到心安理得,在此之前,我们最好还是仔细研究一下历史记录,看看总统任期的第三年究竟是如何强势的——我们更加不应该忘记,我们现在这个第三年还有其一定程度上的特殊之处,因为我们之前已经经历过了一轮开始于去年三月的爆炸性涨势。

  为了进行这样的研究,我将道指1896年创建以来的全部数据都输入了电脑的统计软件。根据一些总统任期周期理论信奉者的看法,我将每一年的开端设定在第三季度结束的时候,这也就意味着,其实奥巴马总统任期的第三年还有不到两个月的时间就要开始了。

  正如之前的很多研究者们曾经在报告中指出的那样,我发现,在总统任期的这四年当中,市场的表现的确是存在着非常明显的差异。尤其需要指出的是,总统任期第三年与其他年份之间的表现差异已经达到了95%的水平,这就意味着,统计学专家们也会认可确实存在着某种模式的判断。

  具体而言,按照这种从每年10月1日到9月30日为一年的划分方法,美国历史上总统任期的第一年中,道指的平均回报率为8.8%,第二年为0.4%,第三年为15.5%,第四年为4.1%

  接下来就需要进行后续的工作,即确认在前一周期发生巨大涨势的情况之下,总统任期的第三年表现是否会因此有所变化。结果我没有任何的发现,这显然是个好消息,因为这就意味着市场前十六个月的巨大涨势并不会成为负担,并不会成为阻碍我们享受未来潜在涨势的障碍。

  此外,考虑到今日的股市估值显然早已不可与去年三月时同日而语,我决定研究一下市场在总统任期第三年的表现与当时的估值是否有关。结果我还是没有任何的发现,统计结果显示,无论股票的市盈率是高是低,都不会对市场的涨势产生实质性的影响。

  事实上,或许正是由于总统任期第三年的因素对于市场的影响是如此强大,即便是那些著名的熊派也都对未来一年的行情寄予了相当的期望。比如波士顿资产管理公司GMO的首席投资官、著名的格兰汉姆(Jeremy Grantham)就是一个例子。

  今年早些时候,在对自己的委托人们解释了他何以会采取长期看空的立场之后,格兰汉姆就补充道,“千万不要轻易以为市场注定将在总统任期的第三年下跌,仅仅估值过高还不足以成为理由……哪怕是高得厉害。

  事实上,1932年至今,人们前后有十九次试图下这样的赌注,但是一次都没有成功过

  (本文作者:Mark Hulbert)


纯属误会 2010-8-06 周五, 下午2:35 写道:

美股评论:股市的国会效应



History paints a bleak picture
Eerie parallels between current and previous major bear markets

June 1, 2010 By Lawrence G. McMillan

While the market never completely repeats itself, there are major similarities between past severe market dislocations and the current one.
We've been tracking the parallels between 1938-1939 and 2009-2010 for some time now. In addition, we've made some references to longer-term parallels between the current markets and those of the past.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=5B388642-125B-41C0-A4EC-C1FF43718274

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文章时间: 2010-8-20 周五, 下午9:01    标题: 引用回复


Bill Gross slashes government debt holdings, boosts emerging markets

August 13, 2010 By Bloomberg


Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., reduced holdings of U.S. government-related debt in July as yields tumbled.

The company's $239.3 billion Total Return Fund's investment in the debt was cut to 54 percent of assets last month, from 63 percent in June, according to the website of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. The share of emerging-market debt increased to a record 11 percent, from 10 percent. The fund also boosted mortgage debt to 18 percent, the most since September.

(See how Gross' moves compare with other investment gurus:
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=CI&Dato=20100811&Kategori=FREE&Lopenr=811009999&Ref=PH)

The fund has returned 12.8 percent in the past 12 months, beating 70 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It gained 1.95 percent over the past month, a performance superior to 78 percent of competitors. Pimco, a unit of the Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, managed $1.1 trillion of assets as of June 30.

Pimco's U.S. government-related debt category can include conventional and inflation-linked Treasuries, agency debt, interest-rate derivatives, Treasury futures and options and bank debt backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., according to the firm's website.

Related Stories:

* Bill Gross: How to play the yield curve
* Gross calls for U.S. to refinance home mortgages
* Gross urges ‘full nationalization’ of housing finance
* Pimco's El-Erian: Investors should prep for 'major structural changes'
* Japan-like decade of deflation a ‘real threat,' experts say

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文章时间: 2010-8-23 周一, 下午10:18    标题: 引用回复


在2020年之前可能发生的13件大事 2010-08-22

murmur.on.hudson的博客


下面列举出我认为在今后十年内可能发生的13件大事,其中任何一件事情如果发生,都会对社会产生很大的影响,也将为善于跟踪大趋势的投资者提供了不可多得的机会.


在日常生活方面:

1)电视媒体将像报纸一样衰落,人们主要利用便携式电子产品从互联网获得信息和娱乐.

2)学习中文在世界各个国家将越来越流行,人民币在更多的亚洲周边国家开始成为实际的流通货币,中国在非洲和南美洲的影响力也越来越大.

3)经济紧缩和通货膨胀并存(滞涨),农产品 原油 和矿产等大宗商品价格的上升导致了日常消费品价格的上涨.

4)自己种植和养殖农畜有机产品以供家庭消费将形成风气,农田和小型农场的价格上升.

5)随着石油价格的上涨,依赖可再生性能源的小型交通工具将变得更加普遍,更多的人将选择使用新型大众交通设施.

在国际方面:

6)欧洲周边国家(意大利 西班牙 葡萄牙 希腊 爱尔兰)中的一国或多国碍于死板的欧元汇率对其经济和社会所造成的混乱,将选择退出欧元体制,欧元最终解体.

7)日本人口减少的趋势继续恶化,越来越多的老年人卖掉日本国债养老,使常年极低的日本债券利率上升,日本政府被迫减少财政赤字,甚至不得不印发更多的钞票,通货膨胀出人意料地回到日本,日本人的生活水平开始下降.

Cool中国昂贵的房地产市场将大幅走低,出口的增长最终也会停滞,政府的财政和货币刺激措施不但没有起作用,反而造成了恶性的通货膨胀.但中国加大了西部开发的力度,名义GDP开始逐渐接近美国.

在美国方面:

9)美国将参与一场或几场中小型战争或者影子战争,战争的热点区域可能是伊朗 朝鲜半岛 中东地区 巴基斯坦或者委内瑞拉.

10)美国选民早已厌倦了民主和共和两党的无所作为,美国的第三个政党将要出现,首先是第三党的候选人在国会选举中普遍获胜,最终可能选举出独立于民主和共和两党的总统.

11) 越来越多的美国人认为,联储会和华尔街对于美国经济和金融的长期失衡有无可推卸的责任,国会通过了对联储会和华尔街以往的所作所为彻底查帐的法案.JP MORGAN, HSBC, GOLDMAN SACHS 等主要投资银行操纵黄金 白银 股票 房贷等市场的行为被全面审查,有些头面人物将因此获罪.

12)美元将失去世界货币的地位,取而代之的是包括黄金 石油 和主要贸易国家货币在内的一种综合性货币.美元兑黄金价格大幅度贬值,但美元仍然强于其它国家的货币.
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201007&postID=20245

13)美国将经历严重的经济停滞和通货膨胀,但会浴火重生,在新能源 基因工程 或新材料等科技领域的发明中找到新的经济增长点,美国最终会带动全球的经济复苏.

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文章时间: 2010-8-26 周四, 下午12:16    标题: 引用回复

天涯社区 > 天涯论坛 > 经济论坛 > 经济杂谈
我估计8月以后电子制造行业要挂了
http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/develop/1/467731.shtml

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文章时间: 2010-8-29 周日, 上午8:56    标题: 引用回复


他的其它东西做的也很出色,不是简单人物。。。

不过就市场而言,美国政府已经没有跌的本钱了,怎么办是关键。

现在虽然大盘形态不好, 但未必直线跌落。因为一个有戒备的淡季
市场,是很难暴跌的,最好就是通过震荡, 把市场情绪整得很悲观,
那么多头在Q4还有一线希望。



兴登堡凶兆遭质疑 创始人坚持己见
2010年 08月 26日


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704540904575452013459211330.html


Jim Miekka从来没有在华尔街工作过,也没有拿过任何金融类文凭。但突然之间,他就成了一些投资者狂热崇拜的对象。

这位50岁的简报作者在这些日子里受到热捧,都因为他发明了一个预测股市崩盘的市场指标。这个指标根据1937年德国一架乘用飞艇发生的空难而命名为“兴登堡凶兆”。从纽约到伦敦,“兴登堡凶兆”赢得了场内交易员的普遍推崇,于是成了电视脱口秀、博客和新闻报道中的热门话题。


周二,吉姆•米耶卡在缅因州的Orrington Rod and Gun俱乐部


“兴登堡凶兆”迄今已经被触发三次,第一次是在8月12日,自那以来,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)已下跌2.5%。这种走势让曾经是高中体育教师的盲人米耶卡一夜成名,尽管他自己并不愿意光环加身。

米耶卡在他位于缅因州Surry的家中说,我觉得出名的感觉很好,但在获得这么多关注的情况下,这个指标将来表现会怎么样,我表示怀疑。

米耶卡的“兴登堡凶兆”采用了一个代入纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)52周股价水平和移动平均值的公式,另外的标准还包括纽约证交所10周移动平均值上升、一个衡量市场波动性的技术指标呈现为负面。所有这些标准都必须同一天达到才形成“兴登堡凶兆”。

一些人觉得这不过是哗众取宠。华尔街交易员持怀疑态度,因为自米耶卡1995年发明以来,“兴登堡凶兆”被触发而股市并未出现重大下跌行情的情况屡见不鲜。事实上,股市大幅下跌前出现“兴登堡凶兆”的情况只占了大约25%。

兴登堡凶兆受到如此热捧,时值市场不确定性越来越大,预测各异。投资者利用技术图表把握市场方向的倾向已经越来越强烈,特别是在股市一直看不出趋势的时候。

宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)沃顿商学院(Wharton School of Business)金融学教授西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)说,人们是在病急乱投医,一直在找某个“百晓生”似的人物。

在线量化分析公司Fusion IQ首席执行长瑞索兹(Barry Ritholtz)说,兴登堡凶兆是一种不考虑因果关系的后顾性指标。他把它叫做“衰退期色情”(recession porn),说在人心惶惶的市场环境中,投资者会被负面言论和阴谋论所诱惑。

米耶卡对这些担心不以为然。他警告说,兴登堡凶兆中的三个具体指征在本月的出现不是好兆头,更何况连续出现往往预示着股市跌幅更深。他说,市场有可能相比两周前第一次出现指征的时候下跌20%。

米耶卡说,这就像是一朵漏斗云,并不是每一朵漏斗云都带来风暴,但现在我们看到了好几朵漏斗云,所以我肯定觉得我是要呆在防风地窖里了。

涉足股市之前,米耶卡在马萨诸塞州一处矿山做实险时受伤。当时他想研究出一种更好的办法来从岩石中提取矿物质,研究过程中发生了爆炸,后来做眼部手术时因为并发症失明。他说,进入手术室里看到的视力表就是我看见的最后一样东西。

米耶卡说,康复之后,他开始收听主要谈投资的电视节目,并开始拿出自己的钱积极地投资于股市。

他在1989年开发了自己的第一个交易“系统”,现在正在开发其他一系列指标,其中有一个短线五日买入信号,是以两个市场指数过去25日的走势为基础的。

米耶卡的简报名叫“Sudbury Bull & Bear Report”(萨德伯里牛熊报告)。他说,他最新的一个指标非常有效。但他不肯透露指标的名字和相关指数的名称。

市场指标还不是米耶卡唯一的发明。他说,他还开发了人工视觉技术,在此帮助下,他借助声音可以比任何视力正常的枪手都能更好地瞄准标靶。他能够在100码的距离击中全美步枪协会(National Rifle Association)标准的标靶,本周还在200码的距离射中了一只保龄球瓶。

米耶卡还为总部位于佛罗里达州Hernando的组织“失明美国人”(Blind Americans)帮忙。他从该组织的总部徒步130英里走到圣彼德斯堡(St. Petersburg),为之募集资金3,000多美元。期间借助了一种全球定位系统和他的导盲犬佐伊(Zoey),用时一个半星期,一路上只走了几次弯路。

他说,我确实拐错了几次弯,但我总是能够纠正过来。

虽然兴登堡凶兆引起了轰动,但他的投资简报名气不响,只有100名订户,远不如兴登堡凶兆出名。

他说,差不多是五个或七个人来打听,只有一个人成为订户。

Steven Russolillo / Tomi Kilgore

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文章时间: 2010-8-29 周日, 上午10:02    标题: 引用回复


Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation (and a 4th standalone)

Tyler Durden on 08/24/2010 15:17 -0500 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/third-hindenburg-omen-confirmation


The market is now down 3.4% from the August 12 open, when the first Hindenburg Omen was sighted, on route to validating the prediction of a 5% drop. However, in the process it continues getting worse and worse - today we just got a third H.O. confirmation, and a 4th standalone HO event, as the market seems to be getting ever more schizophrenic, with increasing new highs and new lows, while the undercurrent is one of ever increasing implied correlation as noted earlier, as ever more asset managers simply rely on levered beta "strategies" to redeem their year. Unlike 2009, however, this time the trick won't fly, as it appears the market's downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.

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文章时间: 2010-8-30 周一, 上午7:33    标题: 引用回复


Wall Street's year-end targets for the S&P 500

By Edward Krudy and Ryan Vlastelica

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN2712831620100827?rpc=44


NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Some of the most prominent Wall Street forecasters have watched U.S. stocks fall well short of their lofty expectations so far this year, but many are sticking to targets that imply a year-end gain of as much as 30 percent in the S&P 500.

Below is a list of year-end analyst targets for the S&P 500 from prominentfirms.

FIRM Current target

Bank of America (BAC.N) 1,300

Bank of Montreal 1,145

Barclays (BCS.N) 1,210

Citigroup (C.N) 1,175

Credit Suisse (CS.N) 1,220 (Cut from 1,270 on July 28)

Deutsche Bank (DB.N) 1,375

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) 1,200 (Cut from 1,250 on August 9)

HSBC Holdings (HBC.N) 1,200

J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N) 1,300

Morgan Stanley (MS.N) 1,200

Oppenheimer 1,300

UBS AG (UBS.N) 1,150 (Cut from 1,350 on July 7)

Birinyi Associates 1,225 (Cut from 1,325 in August)

AVERAGE 1,228.57



Source: Birinyi Associates, Bespoke Investment Group

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文章时间: 2010-9-01 周三, 上午6:31    标题: 引用回复

Market Analysts Say: False Hindenburg Omen Signal
August 26, 2010 8:43 AM by Elizabeth MacDonald


Way too much attention paid to the Hindenburg Omen, that this dreaded technical pattern flashed a negative signal recently in the markets, indicating a coming crash.

Supposedly two Omen signals flashed fire engine red recently.

But market analysts say that didn’t happen.

Hindenburg Omen Explained

A 50-year old financial newsletter writer, James Miekka built the Hindenburg Omen in 1995 using a calculus essentially based on Norman G. Fosback's High Low Logic Index.

It essentially looks at stocks trading at 52-week highs and lows, and more moving parts that must miraculously line up in syzygy for the Hindenburg Omen to be set alight and then blow to smithereens over the markets.

Logic being that in a healthy market, stocks either set new yearly highs or annual lows, just not both at the same time. An unhealthy market with both new highs and lows portend a “to the lifeboats, stop the market I want to get off” moment.

As if we haven’t had enough of those already.

The Omen’s Criteria

Here are the five criteria for the Omen, named after the crash of the German zeppelin in May 1937, courtesy of my Wall Street traders:

1. The daily number of new 52 week highs in stock trading and the daily number of new 52 week lows on the Big Board are both, emphasis on both, greater than or equal to 2.8% of the sum of the NYSE stocks that climb higher or drop in trading on a given day (84 stocks, NOTE THAT, STOCKS).

2. That the NYSE index is greater in value that it was in trading 50 trading days prior. Initially a rising 10 week moving average was used, but it was ditched for 50 to be more current.

3. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day. The Oscillator is a market breadth signal used to ascertain the growth rate of money coming in or exiting the market—it indicates an overbought or oversold condition.

4. The new 52 week highs can’t be more than double the new 52 week lows (however, it is ok for the new lows to be more than twice the new Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

The Omen Was Not Triggered

Never mind that the Omen is not right 10% of the time, only a quarter of the time.

The Omen wasn’t triggered, say my Wall Street quant sources.

When you look at the trades that supposedly hit the news highs and lows, they were not stocks.

Instead, “the vast majority of ‘stocks’ making new highs were interest sensitive closed-end funds, preferred stocks, or some other kind of fixed income product, which by my pencil are not stocks,” says Raymond James managing director Jeffrey Saut. “Therefore I’ll say the same thing I said two weeks ago, I don’t think a Hindenburg Omen has been registered; and even if it has, its track record is spotty.”

Bullish Signals?

Saut says instead that a bullish signal took place. If you really want to get technical, read this.

“What largely went unnoticed, however, was the Demark buy signal (see below) that was recorded by the SPX late last week. In addition to the Demark signal, there are some other potentially encouraging developments,” Saut says. “The McClellan Oscillator is approaching the oversold level of late June, ditto the Capitulation Index, the SPX closed at the low-end of the Bollinger Bands that have contained decline for over a year, the NFIB Hiring Plans Index just went into positive territory, and investors’ sentiment is bloody awful (read that as bullish),” Saut adds. “In fact, I have not seen retail investors so unwilling to talk about stocks since the fourth quarter of 1974!”

Saut concludes: “While in my view we have not had two Hindenburg Omen “sell signals,” we have indeed experienced two 90% downside days, without a single 90% upside day, over the past two weeks.”

He says: “I think it is a mistake to get too bearish here for the aforementioned reasons. I also think it is a mistake to get too bullish. Indeed, I believe the equity markets will remain mired in the envisioned wide-swinging trading range I spoke of following the first Dow Theory ‘sell signal’ of September 1999. In such an environment, stock selection, combined with the ability to sell mistakes quickly, should be the key to portfolio outperformance. Moreover, I agree with the insightful folks at GaveKal who suggest there are reasonable investment alternatives to the sidelines.” (EMac: Emphasis mine).

The Demark Buy Signal

Tom DeMark, founder and chief executive of Market Studies, created the “DeMark Indicators,” which enjoy an especially zealous following with institutional investors and hedge funds.

The DeMark indicators are mechanical and objective statistical indicators that attempt to anticipate both stock tops and bottoms. For nearly two decades DeMark has been a special advisor to Steven A. Cohen of SAC Capital Advisors, and he has written a number of books spelling out his indicators.

A very perfunctory snapshot of the TD Sequential Set-Up criteria:

• For a Buy signal: nine consecutive price closes that are lower than the closes four price bars earlier.

• For a Sell signal: nine consecutive price closes that are higher than the closes four price bars earlier.


Read more:
http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2010/08/26/market-analysts-say-false-hindenburg-omen-signal

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文章时间: 2010-9-01 周三, 上午9:49    标题: 引用回复

Interesting DeMark' Buy Signal.
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