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原油与能源业 BP Oil Spill:Profit from the Crisis
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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午7:41    标题: 原油与能源业 BP Oil Spill:Profit from the Crisis 引用回复


自4月20日BP深海钻井平台Deepwater Horizon爆炸起火以后,在墨西哥湾
发生的这个有史以来最大的oil spill 事故已经进入midway。受其影响,石油工
业深受打击,拖累许多优质油企股价暴跌。我觉得这将是一个从Deep Crisis 中
寻找巨大获利的一个绝佳机会,特开此New Thread关注事件和形势的进一步发展。。。



BP Oil Spill @ Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill


BP股价的走势:



OIH(Oil Service Sector)的相应走势:

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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午8:46    标题: 引用回复


Offshore Oil Exploration



















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Oil Sands






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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午9:06    标题: 引用回复


Down More Than BP Since the Start of the Spill

Bespoke Investment Group,June 02, 2010


The recent peak in the S&P 500 occurred just around the time that the public became aware that oil was gushing into the Gulf of Mexico after an oil well blowout took down the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig. The S&P 500 made its bull market closing high on Friday, April 23rd.

The well blowout occurred on April 20th, but it wasn't until the weekend of the 24th and 25th that news of oil gushing from the damaged well really hit the wires. BP, the company held responsible for the spill, really began to tank the following Monday (the 26th), and it is now down 39.01% since its April 23rd close.

BP has basically lost 40% of its value since the disaster in the Gulf began, but there are 19 other companies in the S&P 1500 that have lost even more over this time period! And they're not all Energy companies either.

Below is a list of the worst performing S&P 1500 stocks since the close on April 23rd, with BP included. No company really wants to be associated with BP at the moment, but in terms of stock performance the names below all find themselves in the same or even worse position.



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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午9:11    标题: 引用回复


Great info on ATPG: SURFACE BLOWOUT PREVENTERS with SID

2010-05-31


---- the power of web 2.0 information gathering. Again, this proved that financial analysts from big firms are no match to information gathering power of internet. Internet a lot of times will beat field experts on their own since there are a lot of experts on internet and they are connected, motivated and united. It is the same principle of open source movement on computer industry.


**********************************

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=1612&tid=62946&mid=62946&tof=4&frt=3#62946



You guys are COMPLETELY missing the point
30-May-10 07:13 pm

It's not whether or not the rig is floating or still. It's whether or not the MMS can be sure that the technology on the rigs are safe enough to permit drilling.

In this case, the thing that *MATTERS MOST* is what kind of Blow out Preventers it has. The Deep Water Horizon had Subsea blowout preventer a mile below the sea.

ATP Titan has SURFACE BLOWOUT PREVENTERS with a SUB-SEA ISOLATION DEVICE. It's the SAFEST DESIGN TECHNOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE. If they Stop the Titan from Drilling, they'd have to STOP ALL OCEAN DRILLING because they're not as safe.

If the Horizon incident had happened on the Titan, it would be IMMEDIATELY CONTAINED because:

1) The Blowout Preventer is on the Surface, allowing more time for reaction.
2) even if the explosion occurs, the Blowout preventer would be easily accessible if the Titan does not sink because it's at the surface.
3) the SID can be remote activated via droids to remotely shut off the well, even if the Riser breaks. IT would take less than a day to do this.

Needless to say, if this same exact situation on the Deepwater Horizon happened on the Titan, it wouldn't be an issue at all.

If the technology can be proven safe, it will be allowed to drill. Otherwise, it won't. PERIOD.


***************************************************

Here's a research paper completed just in April of this year. I've quoted some relevant parts

The entire doc is here, dated April 2010: http://www.mms.gov/tarprojects/640/aa.pdf

Page 21: "The use of the SID in conjunction with the SBOP may not necessarily imply the day rate savings that would come from using the simple SBOP configuration. However, the advantages of this system lie in the ADDED SAFETY OF DRILLING IN ULTRA-DEEPWATER where shallow
gas or well control may be an issue. IF A GAS KICK PASSES THE SUBSEA STACK, IT CAN BE HANDLED BY THE SURFACE STACK. (btw. This is the *EXACT* Scenario of what happened at the Deepwater Horizon but BP was unable to deal with) This could be considered a driver for using this configuration over a Subsea BOP in ultra deep drilling campaigns"

Page 21: "IN ADDITION TO VESSEL AND PERSONNEL SAFETY, RISK TO THE ENVIRONMENT IS REDUCED, AS THE WELL IS ABLE TO BE SEALED BELOW THE RISER, IN CASE OF RISER FAILURE OR BLOWOUT ". this is in regards to the SBOP+SID system versus a traditional Subsea BOP.

Deep Water Horizon had a Subsea BOP, while the ATP Titan has the SBOP+SID Combo. This research was done by MMS itself in April. Instead of speculating on what we think is safe, how about we take it straight from the horse's mouth?


***************************************************

It's pretty eerie how applicable the paper was to the BP disaster. Here're some more tidbits:

"it is important to note that the SID, if designed correctly has the potential to greatly reduce the consequence of a catastrophic blowout event by preventing the well from flowing uncontrollably for extended periods. " - Page 21.

In other words, it would mitigate the *exact* scenario that BP is having problems with. This is pretty eerie, considering that the paper was finalized just 3 weeks before the BP disaster.

"Activation of the SID allows the well to be sealed, and the vessel to move away from the location in case of an emergency disconnect situation. In addition to vessel and personnel safety, risk to the environment is reduced, as the well is able to be sealed below the riser, in case of riser failure or blowout [15]. THE TIME TO RUN THE SID TO THE GROUND IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COMPARED TO RUNNING A SUBSEA BOP AND LOWER MARINE RISER PACKAGE (LMRP)"p.21

What's BP doing now that the top kill failed? Yep. Running a Lower Marine Riser package.

"One potential way to avoid this would be by using a subsea isolation device (SID), which is essentially a set of shear rams, above the wellhead, where a traditional SSBOP would usually
sit. However this is not deemed necessary in all cases. A respondent to the survey noted
that “additional fail safes are not required if the proper design, manufacturing and in-service monitoring and inspection practices and procedures are in place to ensure the riser is designed, built and operated to reduce risk to as low as reasonably practicable” - Page 5.

In other words. A SID isn't even required. But ATP went above and beyond regulations to ensure that their platform is safe. Also note that regulations only call for designs that can handle 100 year Metoocean events. The Titan was designed to handle 1,000 year events. Again, above and beyond the current regulation for safety.

Other things of note:

-There has never been a case of failure for DDRs (dedicated drilling risers, like those used on the titan) in the GOM. Ever.

What's the significance? The significance is that with the Moratorium, Obama now has made sure that out of ~40 drilling facilities in the Gulf, only 9 will remain. The 9 remaining are all production platforms with the stability required for SBOPs. If they shut down ATP for safety reasons, it would mean that the *ENTIRE* GOM drilling is halted, because every other rig/platform is less safe than the Titan. With 30+% of US oil supplies coming from deepwater GOM... I somehow doubt a complete shut-in will happen.

Which brings me to my next point. With only 9 platforms remaining... Obama just took out 75% of ATP's competitors. Leases from now on will be cheaper. If a major wants to drill a field, they may be forced to route their production through the Titan, or build one of their own. It takes at least 3 years to build a production platform from scratch and install it on site. This means ATP's titan is now one of the only games in town. This could actually be a net positive for ATP.

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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午10:10    标题: 引用回复


相关讨论帖:



MA45 的ATPG(by James007)
http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=38250&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

BP, RIG, ATPG watch(by JRun)
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=8836

贼牧师又栽了
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=8812&hilit=fall+in+love

small insider buy at atpg
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1974423

真正的蓝筹-BP
http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=39518&hilit=

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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午10:11    标题: 引用回复


BP处理墨西哥湾原油外泄 紧张形势犹如作战

2010年 6月 3日 星期四 18:17


路透休斯顿6月1日电---上周三,也就是美国历史上最严重的漏油事件进入第五周,BP首席执行官Tony Hayward将自己锁在公司位于休斯顿的美国总部三楼的一个房间内.

接下来的五个小时内,Hayward、BP的高层、高级工程师和在这之前两天飞抵休斯敦的美国能源部部长朱棣文,一同反覆讨论阻断原油泄漏的最新计划.每日数千桶石油从墨西哥湾底部一个破裂油井中喷出.

该方案被称之为"顶封法"(top kill),是将钻探泥浆注入破裂的油井,来阻止石油的流动,从而为用水泥砌封井顶创造条件.该技术在其他油井上曾奏效,但还未在五千英尺水下失控的油井中试过.该方法的风险是,注入泥浆带来的额外压力可能破坏油井顶部,从而导致流入海洋的原油增加.

即便如此,Hayward和他的团队还是认为计划成功的可能性为60-70%,他们希望为这次破坏力极大的漏油事件画上句号,同时BP长达五周,暴露在媒体聚光灯下的梦魇或许将消散.


他们工作的空间大小约为30英尺(9公尺)乘30英尺,通常用做培训室.泄油事件不久後,BP危机办公室徵用这个房间,并命名为"介入室".电线从天花板蛇落在廉价桌子上.捆绑电线的黄色胶带写有"警告"的字样.这些桌子刷成白色,由木板拼合而成,桌上满是笔记本电脑.不厚的?上挂着墨西哥湾地图和海床图表.

隔壁是几乎相同的房间,命名为"控制室",另一组工程师研究收回泄漏在外原油的各种策略.

介入室的团队研读测试结果,以察油井是否能承载压力.气氛"紧张".商讨间歇时,BP的美洲区总监Bob Dudley在房间外狭窄的过道对路透称,"这有点像美国航空暨太空总署(NASA),在讨论阿波罗13号任务."

沉着冷静的Dudley一向不夸夸其谈.他之前是TNK-BP的主管,该公司是BP和俄罗斯一些政治寡头组建的合资公司,而在这些政治寡头展现敌意後,Dudley被迫逃离俄罗斯.他谈论起那段历史,就像一名石油工人说起自己妻子化妆品的挑选.不过在休斯顿的那个下午,其眼神中闪过一丝紧张.

"这相当激动紧张,"他说.

快到下午一点的时候,一群着休闲高尔夫衬衫和棉线裤的员工,聚集在外边等待决议.Hayward拍板,泄油出事地点上方的船舶接到实施"顶封"的命令.随着钻探泥浆流入井顶,指挥中心的士气有所振奋.

然而对于BP和每个人来说遗憾的是,顶封未能奏效.若这是在NASA,这更像是"挑战者"号失事的灾难,而非阿波罗13号成功解救.

BP股价挫跌,分析师预计泄漏在8月减压井完工之前都不会止住,无论是Hayward和BP,还是墨西哥湾附近水域、沙滩和湿地,都面临空前的险境.

除了在封堵油井喷涌上面临技术性挑战外,公众怒气与日俱增,以及备受批评的奥巴马政府渐感不耐,都是BP必须面对的现实.

总统除了加强语言上的攻势并对BP采取更强硬的立场之外,似乎一时难有别的作为,但要求白宫担起此次事故责任的政治压力仍然不断.

总之,对于BP和不擅于与媒体打交道的Hayward而言,未来数月的形势不会轻松,只会更为严峻和复杂.路透记者在BP休斯敦总部逗留四日,并在上周末与Hayward一道赴事故现场,得以近距离一窥这家四面楚歌的公司现状.


**潜水艇和按摩师**

"顶封"开始数小时後,休斯敦的BP员工似乎比前两日更忙碌了,办公室里希望暗涌.一些人甚至面露微笑.

BP的常设危机管理中心,位于公司西休斯敦20层总部办公楼中,负责对飓风等危机事件做出应对.目前,包括艾克森美孚、壳牌、Anadarko和雪佛龙员工在内的500-600人忙碌于这个24小时运营的中心.每12小时换一次班,不过加上交接时间,多数人的工作时间至少在13个小时.

办公楼位于风景如画的园区,水鸭和天鹅在人工湖中悠闲自得,多层停车场中停满高档轿车、SUV以及欧洲奢华品牌车.

"介入室"及"控制室"在总部的中心位置,此外还有一间"蜂巢",在这不透光的房间里,有一堵?为挂上了多个屏幕.各个屏幕从不同角度展示水下遥控载具 (ROV)记录的情况.

约十几位员工在蜂巢中通过悬挂于天花板的麦克风,与泄漏事故水域的船上ROV操控人员对讲."有点像小孩玩电脑游戏,只不过风险要大上许多."BP高级副总裁Kent Wells说道.

沿着走廊往里是"同步作业室",工程师在室内协调危机处理船舶的行动.在"顶封"开始之日,在泄漏油井上面方圆1英里的水域,聚集了十数艘大型船舶,包括鉆井船、供货船以及工作平台.

在连结所有房间的走廊的尽头有一间单独的理疗室,在那里,员工可以享受到BP为他们准备的按摩服务."我们的员工工作太辛苦了,必须有一些减压手段."Wells说道.午後"顶封"开始後,两台按摩椅空在那里.

指挥中心多数员工都是中等年龄的男性白种人.少数几个女性员工大多担任辅助性职位,如行政助理或接待员等.专家们来自世界各地,所以这里掺杂着美国口音、挪威以及英国腔调.为了使员工更易于了解他们的同事所负职责,一些员工穿着的红色汗衫後面都印有其职位.

指挥中心还包括美国海岸警卫队队员.他们穿着海军蓝制服和沉重的黑军靴,提醒人们政府也在付出努力.但警卫队员通常都无事可作."顶封"一开始,他们就把自己关在一个沿着走廊的小封闭房间内,似乎周围的事情与他们毫不相干.


**CEO态度谨慎**

淤泥注入井内後几小时,Hayward穿着其标志性的开领衫走出介入室.在英国最大的金融公关公司主管及BP新闻部主管陪同下,Hayward在同步作业室对路透社及当地电视台做了简短表述.

Hayward身後,五个大型平板电视滚动播放着海底录像.其中一个画面显示,鉆井泥浆正从井的顶端迸出,另一个画面显示一个带有标度盘和操纵盘的黄色控制板,上面还用红色字母写着Cameron International Corp公司的名字.这家公司生产的防喷装置不过关,BP最初曾将此次石油泄漏归罪于这家公司.

在美国政府的压力下,BP还将漏油井视频片断放到网站上."顶封"法正在进行,Hayward对任何试图将漏油量变化解读为成败迹象的人提出警告.并非所有人都把他的警告给听进去了.几天后,BP公司一位知情人称,"对冲基金正就此进行相关交易".

Hayward似乎有些紧张和谨慎."操作正在按计划进行,"他表示.


**事故影响**

4月20日Deepwater Horizon鉆井平台爆炸,造成11人死亡,并导致灾难性的漏油事故.

迄今,事故致使BP市值缩水约650亿美元,并冲击扩大墨西哥湾以及美国其他地区深海钻探的行业计划.由于环境灾难迟未平息,此事可能对美国人以及其他人对深海钻探的看法产生深远影响.

起初,对于BP走捷径、收入重要性高于安全的指控,公司做出的回应是将其归咎于在墨西哥湾油井的合作夥伴.但现在,BP称其只专注于止住漏油.

不过BP员工背背地里却呈现辩护甚至是顽抗的心态.上周一位员工发现同事在看CNN电视节目.她尖锐地问道,"他们还在指控我们掩盖事实吗?"

随着公众的怒火膨胀,BP新闻部已将所有媒体电话直接转到语音信箱,部分原因在于许多电话都要求暴力处置Hayward.公关部门人员表示,最不堪入耳的电话多半在清晨时段拨进来,这个时候打电话的似乎都有些醉意.

人们在美国报纸的网站上发表评论,称Hayward是个"混帐东西","说话带着势利的口音".

"我完全理解,为什麽所有人对于泄漏无法堵住而感到愤怒和沮丧,"Hayward上周末对路透表示,"我也愤怒并沮丧着.我希望尽我所能让泄漏尽快停止. 我们正在竭尽所能控制泄漏,并将继续这样做.实际情况是,这是一个高难度的技术挑战."


**奥巴马亲临海滩**

在"顶封"开始两天后,Hayward乘坐白色猎鹰公务飞机从休斯敦起飞,经过一小时的飞行後在路易斯安那州的Houma机场降落.他跳进雪佛兰 Suburban车,飞车穿过停车场来到一辆拖车前,那里许多医务人员为预定乘坐直升机飞往泄漏地点的每一个人进行呼吸功能检查.

而後,Hayward和他的行政助理以及一位新闻部人员驱车来到直升飞机场,这座灰色一层楼建筑的候机室是由多个预制的小房间衔接在一起构成.

那天上午稍早他离开休斯敦时,美国总统奥巴马就已经到达路易斯安那同海岸警卫队,州政府官员见面,并视察当地海滩.

这个缓慢推进的大灾难让白宫无法置身事外.民意调查显示,60%的美国人对政府的反应感到不满意.墨西哥湾地区的许多人认为,政府本应更快地行动以控制石油泄漏,并采取更多举措为数以千计的渔业工人提供帮助.

这也是Carol Terrebonne的看法;在路易斯安那Golden Meadow地区一个以捕虾为业的渔村里,他那家狭窄的虾店就在路边.Terrebonne在奥巴马到访该州一天后说,"两个人(奥巴马和 Hayward)都该受到指责...在石油流入我们这片湿地之前,他们本该采取更多的措施,他们本来可以马上带来大型除油工具."

周五上午天气晴朗,奥巴马和海岸警卫队指挥官Thad Allen在Fourchon海滩会见了当地官员.在海滩的入口处,还书写着"开心,安全,请帮助保持海滩清洁".

总统走到水边,水面上布满了亮色的吸油海棉,看起来有一点像拉拉队的彩球,此外还有一个细长的管状栅栏,用于收集漏油.在与官员们交谈後,奥巴马叫过媒体记者,指着那些冲上沙滩的黑色粘球."如果你们能看见这些小黑球,这些就是他们所谈论的沥青球."他说."显然在我们成功终止漏油前,就有诸多问题要处理."

站在总统身边的是拉福什(LaFourche)县的主管官员Charlotte Randolph.奥巴马解释说,Randolph经常到这篇海滩来垂钓."我们要确保她能回到这里."

一位记者问这位主管,这些沥青球是不是天然的."现在你所见到的所有石油都要算到BP头上."Randolph说.

当日稍後,有人问奥巴马他对"顶封"的作用信心如何."我只能说最优秀的精英都在为这事付出努力,我们将继续努力,直到泄漏被堵上."


**当我们住在同一星球**

Hayward也是菁英成员之一.在受训成为地质专家之後,他离开大学并加入BP,在2007年5月升到最高职位.前任执行长John Browne是被迫下台,此前他承认曾向法院说谎,藉以阻止英国媒体报导关于断袖恋情的细节.

Browne的明星光环在2005年的BP德州厂区发生爆炸而受创,当时造成15名员工死亡,而事後安全主管单位将责任归咎于这位执行长的缩减支出提案. 一年之後阿拉斯加油管漏油,事後公司也承认当中有部分是受缩减成本影响,再加上多个重大计划延宕,更增添公司难堪.

在同僚眼中,Hayward致力于将重心放在产油的基本细节.在他上任之後数月,他宣称BP的营运表现"很糟糕".在宣示要改变公司运作方法後,Hayward称他将会让BP从鉆油井到确保安全工作条件等各个细项都要建立标准化的精简流程.

这位BP的领导人有着满头的深棕色头发与稚气的脸庞,再加上他朴实的态度,意味着他能够轻易地让人猜测他的年龄比他实际的53岁要小上许多.不过这场危机持续拖延,他的面容也开始看起来更显憔悴.在"封顶"行动展开的当晚,他工作到凌晨四点,在没有睡觉的情形下赶往录制晨间电视节目."我想要尽快解决这件事的心情比任何人都要急切."他向路透表示."我希望恢复正常生活."

和擅于站在镜头前表现的Browne不同的是,Hayward不喜欢受到媒体的瞩目.许多美国民众对他在危机初期发表的评论提出批评,认为他似乎淡化了漏油的严重性.在不熟悉美国政治环境下,Hayward在拿捏发言内容时有着一番挣扎.

"美国有将坏消息泛政治化...以及流于感性的倾向."全球第二大原油公开上市企业皇家荷兰/壳牌石油集团(RDSa.L: 行情)美国事业前主管John Hofmeister表示."那些常驻在外的高阶主管投入辩论,他们对战场并不熟悉,不知道或者是不了解这里的机制是如何运作.他们在体验细微差异上有极大的困难."

不过BP高阶主管已然推动其大老板知名度升高,近期他已经开始进行例行的电视访问.在他第一次前往鉆油船Discoverer Enterprise时,Hayward有着路透记者及摄影师的陪同,另外美国广播公司(ABC)也派了三人摄影团队上船;先前Discoverer Enterprise试图解决漏油事件,但并未成功.

在Houma直升机停机坪上,大型的Sikorsky直升机准备降落时,路透向他询问他如何应付铺天盖地而来的媒体报导,以及不分昼夜的专访要求时,Hayward耸了耸肩,称"我们就住在这世界上."随後则是一声长叹.


**寻找代罪羔羊**

BP所面对的世界情势快速变迁.奥巴马总统已经扩大一份有关新的深水油井规范的备忘录,同时对现有的鉆油活动提出更为严格的管制.

瑞士信贷估算,BP清理成本可能达到98亿美元.法务方面的挑战则可能使其支出再多个数十亿美元.分析师甚至已经开始揣测BP是否可能成为皇家荷兰/壳牌或者是艾克森美孚(XOM.N: 行情)的猎物;过去产业高阶主管多认为这类并购案是无稽之谈,因监管单位不太可能予以通过.


BP此前犯下的关键性错误,使其处境更加糟糕.该公司开始称泄漏到海湾的原油为每日1,000桶,与美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)开始的预估一致,後来才公布为每日泄漏5,000桶.

但一些科学家给出了更大的流量估计,特别是BP後来每天从泄漏石油中获取5,000桶後,还有几千桶石油持续泄漏进海洋,许多华府人士和美国各地民众开始斥责该公司对泄漏程度有所隐瞒.

上周初一个独立的美国政府主导调查小组称石油泄漏可能在每天12,000至19,000桶之间,BP的信誉遭到进一步打击.该小组5月27日公布其调查结果,称估计有65万-70万桶石油泄漏进海湾,大大超过Exxon Valdez在美国阿拉斯加Prince William海湾事件中26万桶的漏油规模.

美国环保团体国家野生动物联盟(National Wildlife Federation)的Miles Grant告诉路透,"我们对石油泄漏事件本身感到难过,同时也对没有从BP获得准确的信息而感到沮丧."

此前,Hayward努力把BP从油井泄漏事件中撇清,在4月30日的访谈中告诉路透"这不是属于我们的事故".他把这样的说法重复了数天."这不是我们的鉆井,不是我们的设备,不是我们的人、我们的系统,也不是我们的工艺,"他在5月3日这样告诉英国广播公司(BBC).他称,最好把责难归于防喷设施制造商,或者BP雇来鉆井的Transocean公司.

但美国众议院能源和商业委员会公布的关于调查该事件的文件凸显了BP在油井设计中的作用,以及BP经理人在鉆井实施中扮演的角色.参议员David Vitter称,BP似乎"犯了诸多错误,有投机取巧之嫌."

当然海湾沿岸许多人都这麽认为."我认为是BP投机取巧的工程师的错误,"61岁的Rick Murdoch称.他是阿拉巴马州一只租船的船长,本打算五六月在路易斯安那水域捕鱼,但现在却成了一场空.

令人更加愤怒的是,美国内政部监察局的一份报告详细描述了负责管理海上鉆井的美国矿产资源管理服务局(Minerals Management Service)的腐败文化.上周奥巴马称,美国监管层和石油官员之间的关系一直"过分密切".

Hayward上周站在Discoverer Enterprise鉆井船的甲板上,白色塑料安全帽下汗水直淌,他似乎对成为众矢之的感到很不自在.他称,"我不会再根据模棱两可的事实、暗示和虚假传言进行臆测.我们需要等待了解真相,然後决定是谁的错误,在什麽时後犯了错,但最为重要的是:如何保证这不再发生?"


**垃圾弹**

"顶封法"实施49个小时後,搭载着Hayward、一位路透记者和摄影师以及ABC人员的直升机飞向Discoverer Enterprise鉆井船,飞机从Houma起飞,向南飞越广阔的密西西比三角洲.几百英尺下方,广袤的绿色湿地上运河交错,是几十年前石油工业为便利海上作业而挖掘的.後来,随着鉆井设备更加远离海岸线,就不再需要穿过沼泽地了.但三角洲受到的伤害却再也无法弥补.

Hayward对控制泄漏管道的最新尝试仍然持乐观态度.除常规的"封顶法"外,BP还尝试了"垃圾弹"(junk shot),向井中注入较重的材料,例如橡胶屑和高尔夫球等,以将其堵住."我们已经把它打倒,但还没有击中要害,"Hayward称.

登上鉆井船後,Hayward与BP和Transocean的官员会面.这艘鉆井船长度约相当于三个美式足球场,很像一艘上面固定着一个巨大井架的油轮. 鉆井船周围的水面上停泊着数十艘船舶,忙着阻止石油泄漏或防止扩散.Hayward称,周围约有1,000-1500人在防止石油扩散.

"这是我进入石油工业30多年以来所见过的最不同寻常的情况,"他称.

BP在鉆井船的代表George Walker是个有37年石油工业经验的高个子德州人.爆炸後他向他的老板解释了情况."我们尽了全力,"他颤抖着下唇说.

随後当一名记者问Hayward,控制泄漏的技术是不是应该早点开发时,Hayward的语气中隐隐现出防卫的意味."我们有这样的技术.只是在目前的情况下尚未开展,因为20年以来,深水鉆井没有出现过这种情况.所以说,技术是有的,我们正在部署."

白宫发言人吉布斯当天下午乘坐空军一号返回芝加哥时对记者称,总统对"封顶法"持乐观态度."我们对此抱有希望,我认为未来若干小时後,我们将会知道进展到什麽程度,"吉布斯称."总统相信我们正在取得进展."

Hayward从直升机里低头看着海湾平静的水面,也满怀希望.他已经看到海面上混进分散剂的原油形成的一道道彩虹图案和斑驳的棕色痕迹,但他宁愿专注于更广的海域.

"很多水面是乾净的,"他称,好像在说服自己情况将会好转."你能看到一些银光,但这个地方大部分海面意外清澈."

而不到24小时後,BP宣布"封顶法"失败.(完)

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文章时间: 2010-6-04 周五, 上午11:37    标题: 引用回复


BP Oil Spill的阴影之下,天然气、太阳能和风能股会有一波长达数月的利好行情。




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文章时间: 2010-6-07 周一, 上午9:21    标题: 引用回复


英国石油公司收集漏油超预期 高管称不会辞职

2010年06月07日 新华网


  美国海岸警卫队官员5日说,英国石油公司成功“盖帽”墨西哥湾漏油油井后24小时内共收集6000桶原油(71.89,0.38,0.53%),超出先前所预期的每天1000桶。

  英国石油公司首席执行官托尼·海沃德6日说,自己不会因漏油事件辞职。

  超预期

  英国石油“切管盖帽”控漏方案的实施5日继续呈现积极进展。

  美国海岸警卫队司令、原油泄漏事故救灾总指挥萨德·艾伦当天在新闻发布会上说:“过去24小时内,共收集6000桶漏油。”

  前一天,艾伦估计漏油收集量为每天1000桶左右。

  “眼下目标是在保持现有收集量的基础上,进一步提高,”艾伦说。

  英国石油租赁的钻井平台“深水地平线”4月20日爆炸后沉入墨西哥湾,底部油井持续漏油。

  漏油之初,英国石油一度在漏油点上方安放“控油罩”,希望借助虹吸管向海面船只输送漏油。不过,由于井口压力太大、温度过低,漏油凝结成“油晶”,无法上输。

  “盖帽”方案是“控油罩”方案的改良版。英国石油在全新漏斗状装置中设置排气阀,控制装置内压力,防止“油晶”形成。

  “他们现在做的是缓慢提高收集量,输送漏油至海面,”艾伦说,“他们希望把收集量提高到最大值,随后逐渐关闭排气阀。”

  艾伦没有透露最大收集量具体数值。

  成现实

  漏油之初,一些专家担心浮油蔓延会严重损伤沿岸野生动物。眼下,羽毛遭浮油浸透的各种鸟类证明,担心已经成为现实。

  在路易斯安那州“福特·杰克逊鸟类恢复中心”,英国石油公司雇佣工作人员为157只各种鸟类清理粘附在羽毛上的浮油,包括颇为珍稀的褐鹈鹕。

  美国政府5日公布最新数据,显示清理人员已在墨西哥湾海域发现有547只鸟死亡。一些科学家说,一些鸟死亡后因为沉入海底无法统计。因此,实际死亡数量可能远超现有统计数字。


(蒋骢骁)

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文章时间: 2010-6-09 周三, 下午8:16    标题: 引用回复


BP Oil Spill:
The new number is 100,000 barrels - 200,000 barrels per day.

I repeat. 100,000 barrels - 200,000 barrels per day is pouring into Gulf of Mexico.

The math is staggering: 100,000 barrels X 42 gallons per barrel = 4,200,000 gallons per day. And today being day 50, the volcanic oil rupture has released 210,000,000 gallons in to the gulf coast of the United States. Using the upper limit of the new scientific estimates, we could be talking about 8,400,000 gallons of light Louisiana crude per day poisoning the gulf coast.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ybenjamin/detail??blogid=150&entry_id=65378#ixzz0qO69l200

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文章时间: 2010-6-09 周三, 下午9:01    标题: 引用回复


BP Trades as Junk, Credit-Default Swaps Invert: Credit Markets



June 10 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc bonds and credit-default swaps are trading as if the energy company has lost its investment-grade credit rating as costs mount from the cleanup of the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

BP’s $3 billion of 5.25 percent notes due in 2013 fell as low as a record 89.94 cents yesterday, pushing the yield to 7.57 percentage points more than Treasuries. The spread compares with the average of 7.26 percentage points for junk bonds, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. The cost to protect $10 million of London-based BP debt for one year with credit-default swaps almost doubled to $512,000, according to CMA DataVision. It was $29,000 on April 30.

“That’s just pure out panic,” said Michael Donelan, who oversees $3.5 billion of bonds at Ryan Labs Inc. in New York. “That’s like, ‘Get me out of here now.’ What the market is pricing in now is increased regulatory oversight and heavy, heavy punitive damages.”

Debt investors are losing confidence in BP’s creditworthiness as the company fails to contain the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. BP said June 7 it has spent $1.25 billion so far, or about $27 million a day, related to the accident. Credit Suisse Group AG estimated the total cost may reach $37 billion.

Fannie Mae, Citigroup

Credit-default swaps on BP debt implied a rating for the company of Ba2 as of June 8, nine steps lower than its actual grade of Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service, based on data from the ratings firm’s capital markets research group. The implied rating was as high as A3 on May 28, the data show. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.

Losses in bonds of BP, The Woodlands, Texas-based Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Transocean Ltd. of Vernier, Switzerland, the other two companies involved in the oil spill, have sparked a 2.34 percent drop in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Corporate Energy index since April. A global broad corporate bond index is down just 0.24 percent in the same period.

Elsewhere in credit markets, two-year interest-rate swap spreads, a measure of bank risk, fell to the lowest in three weeks. Fannie Mae, the U.S.-supported mortgage company, plans to sell $3 billion of five-year benchmark notes after issuing $1 billion in a reopening of two-year debt, and Citigroup Inc. issued $1.88 billion of securities.

The difference between yields on two-year Treasuries and the rate to convert fixed payments to floating narrowed as much as 3.6 basis points to 38.4. Two-year interest-rate swap spreads soared to a 13-month high of 52.25 basis points on May 24 as investors fled all but the safest government securities. The spread had dropped as low as 9.63 on March 24, the narrowest since 1993.

Emerging Markets

The average spread on Merrill’s Global Broad Market Corporate index rose 1 basis point to 199 basis points, or 1.99 percentage points, yesterday. The yield was 4.08 percent.

Fannie Mae’s five-year notes will be sold tomorrow, according to an e-mailed statement from the Washington-based company. Citigroup’s 6 percent debt maturing in December 2013 yields 5.43 percent and pays 425 basis points more than similar- maturity Treasuries, Bloomberg data show.

Spreads on emerging-market bonds narrowed 1 basis point to 337 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. The gap has ranged from a low of 230 basis points on April 15 to as high as 346 on May 20.

The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 2.3 basis points to a mid- price of 131.8 basis points as of 5:48 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. That’s the highest end-of-day level since July 14, according to CMA.

European iTraxx

In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index linked to the debt of 125 companies fell 4.7 basis points to 135.75, Markit prices show. It reached the highest since May 2009 on June 8, CMA prices show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index fell 1 basis point to 151 basis points today, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

The indexes typically rise as investor confidence deteriorates. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.

BP has seven bonds with a face value of $10.6 billion in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch energy index. The spread on the bonds widened an average of 162 basis points to 541 basis points yesterday. The gap on the index is 239.

Anadarko bond spreads surged 37 basis points to 501 on average, and Transocean surged 42 to 539.

‘His Life Back’

Ian MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University in Tallahassee, estimated the well is leaking 26,500 barrels to 30,000 barrels a day into the Gulf, six times more than the figure used by BP and the government from April 28 to May 27.

“The piece of news that seems to have broken the camel’s back was an increase of estimated spill volumes,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.

Investors should be “underweight” oil and gas debt, a change from “marketweight,” Lebas wrote in a June 7 report, amid greater regulation and a halt to drilling to projects.

President Barack Obama said this week he would have fired BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward for saying he wanted to end the leak because he wanted “his life back.” Obama said he has made three trips to the Gulf to find out who to hold responsible, “so I know whose ass to kick.” Lawmakers led by Representative Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat, wrote to Hayward urging him to stop paying dividends and cancel an advertising campaign in the U.S. until the cleanup is done.

“They’re getting a lot of flak from politicians, and that’s raising concerns about the dividend,” said Peter Hitchens, an analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co. in London. “Operationally, they seem to have turned the corner.”

BP Bond Spreads

As recently as the end of April, BP bond spreads averaged 46 basis points. The increase amounts to an extra $33 million in interest a year on every $1 billion BP borrows. BP has about $24.9 billion of debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, with $1.32 billion due this year and $5.96 billion maturing in 2011. The year’s debt payments are split between two issues in November, Bloomberg data show.

The 5.25 percent BP notes due in 2013 fell 5.75 cents to yield 7.89 percent as of 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. That compares with 9.45 percent for high- yield, high risk corporate debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

Short-Term Protection

Anadarko’s $1.75 billion of 6.45 percent bonds due in 2036 tumbled 5.75 cents to 76.5 cents for a yield spread of 4.63 percentage points, Trace data show. Credit-default swaps on its debt increased 221 basis points to 655. Transocean’s $1 billion of 6.8 percent securities due in 2038 fell 4.75 cents to 80.25 cents, for a spread of 4.58 percentage points. Credit-default swaps on its debt jumped 98 basis points to 613.

Banks and other trading partners may be buying short-term protection from losses on derivatives they have with BP, said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California.

One-year credit swaps are trading 125 basis points more than the annual cost to protect the bonds for five years in a so-called inverted curve, according to CMA prices. Derivatives used for hedging foreign-exchange risk used by companies such as BP tend to be shorter-dated, Backshall said.

BP uses derivatives to hedge its exposure to energy price swings as well as to take proprietary positions, according to its 2009 annual report. “The contracts may be entered into for risk management purposes, to satisfy supply requirements or for entrepreneurial trading,” the company document says.

Counterparties

BP’s largest category of derivatives is related to natural gas prices. Next are contracts based on oil prices. The company also has exposure to currency and interest-rate derivatives.

Its largest derivative positions are classified as level 2, such as swaps, in which prices may be determined but aren’t derived from listed markets like futures exchanges, which is the standard used for level 1 values, the report shows.

BP’s derivatives assets classified as level 2 at the end of last year were $13.1 billion, while its level 2 liabilities were $11.6 billion. By comparison, level 1 assets were $290 million and level 1 liabilities were $173 million.

BP’s exposure to counterparties, or what could be lost if they all failed to pay their obligations to the company, totaled $49.6 billion for financial assets at the end of 2009, according to the annual report. It had $549 million in collateral against that potential loss, it said.

Alan Haywood, chief operating officer of BP’s IST Global Gas unit, part of the arm that trades in oil, natural gas, chemicals, finance and shipping, is a board member of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association, the OTC market’s trade and lobbying group, according to ISDA’s website.


To contact the reporters on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 9, 2010 21:37 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-6-10 周四, 上午8:01    标题: 引用回复


Oil Spill Trajectory Hindcast/Forecast


Fascinating animation via the College of Marine Science at the
University of South Florida based on West Florida Shelf ROMS:

http://ocg6.marine.usf.edu/~liu/Drifters/latest_roms.htm

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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午11:23    标题: 引用回复


今天Offshore Issues在BP带领下,继续全面上涨。但是OIH指数lagged。。。


果然,BP 的赔偿最高封顶还真是非常地忽悠人的
来源: duye 于 10-06-11 09:23:14
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1991052



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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午11:35    标题: 引用回复


Bikinis Meet Hazmat Suits as Florida Weighs Closing Beaches






June 11 (Bloomberg) -- A sheen of oil off of Pensacola Beach, a week after tar balls from the BP Plc spill began washing ashore, may force Florida to do the unthinkable: Close beaches.

Government officials must balance potential health dangers from oil arriving on the northwest Florida coast against the prospect that banned beaches would drive away visitors and cripple the state’s $60 billion tourism business.

Their decision so far has been to keep the coastline open even as crews paid by BP work to clean up the muck.

“We are swimming in it, we are lying out right next to it,” said Emily Boswell, 27, a veterinary technician from Pensacola, after spending a day at nearby Pensacola Beach. “Why are there people in hazmat suits and we are in our bikinis?”

State and local officials say there have been no beach closings because the sand and sea remain safe.

“There’s no imminent public health issue to warrant a closure at this time,” Nancy Blum, spokeswoman for the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in Tallahassee, said in an interview.

Robert McKee, a Fort Lauderdale, Florida, lawyer representing clients suing BP, said it’s “a significant probability” that the state will have to start closing beaches. He compared the situation to “Jaws,” the 1975 movie based on the book by the same name in which a killer shark terrorizes an island resort town. The fictional town’s mayor hushes up the danger to avoid scaring away tourists.

‘Shark in Waiting’

The oil is like “the shark in waiting,” he said. “If they give the warnings, they destroy their economy, and if they don’t give the warnings, they are complicit with the cause of the harm.”

Government officials say they are carefully monitoring the arrival of oil that has spewed from the BP well since a drilling rig exploded on April 20.

State health officials issued warnings on June 8 that swimmers at Perdido Key, near the Alabama border, enter the water at their own risk because tar balls were too numerous to avoid. County officials said all beaches remained open and that the advisory doesn’t ban swimming.

Pensacola Mayor Mike Wiggins told reporters on June 9 that a flyover he did of the area the previous day showed an oil sheen that could “easily” reach the coast as soon as today.

Larry Johnson, a Pensacola City councilman, said that while beaches “are safe as of now,” he worries about children who might not know to stay away from the balls and clumps of oil.

Closing beaches would be “economically devastating,” said Robert Rinke, president of Levin and Rinke Resort Realty in Pensacola Beach.

‘A Last Resort’

“That would be a last resort,” he said in an interview. “Officials would do everything they could to keep the beaches open as long as there wasn’t a public-safety issue.”

Florida environmentalists such as Manley Fuller said closings may be inevitable.

“Obviously they don’t want to do that, but they may be forced to,” Fuller, president of the Florida Wildlife Federation, said in an interview

Even with the beaches open, charter fishermen, hotels, restaurants and other businesses that rely on tourists are seeing sales plummet in what is supposed to be their busiest time of the year.

“It’s like the oil is holding everybody hostage,” Johnson, the city councilman, said.

Costing $10.9 Billion

The spill could put 195,000 Floridians out of work and cost the state $10.9 billion should the area that includes Pensacola lose half its tourist traffic, according to estimates by Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

While the tar balls already on the beaches aren’t highly toxic, the oil spreading through the Gulf and chemical dispersants used by BP will affect Florida’s shores for decades, said Richard Snyder, head of environmental diagnostics and bioremediation at the University of West Florida in Pensacola.

“This will cascade into the future and be with us for years,” he said in an interview.

Marty Hurd, a 29-year-old waitress from Prescott, Arkansas, said that’s why she brought her three sons, ages 2 through 8, to Pensacola Beach now.

“We brought our kids down here to see the ocean because they might not get to see it again for a long time,” Hurd said in an interview yesterday. “If the oil comes in here, it’s going to ruin it.”

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文章时间: 2010-6-23 周三, 下午10:04    标题: 引用回复


墨西哥湾漏油事故恶化 大量原油再度喷出

2010-06-23


美国墨西哥湾原油泄漏事故23日再次恶化:原本用来控制漏油点的水下装置因发生故障而被拆下修理,滚滚原油在被部分压制了数周后,重新喷涌而出,继续污染墨西哥湾广大海域。

英国石油公司表示,上述故障的是水下机器人与漏油围堵装置发生碰撞的结果。目前,技术人员正在抓紧检查有关设备,以找到重新压制住油流的办法,并且在飓风季节开始前完成。

《华盛顿邮报》报道,过去几周中,在上述水下装置的帮助下,救援人员每天可回收大约1.7万桶泄漏的原油(事发油井每天漏油量约为3.5到6万桶原油)。与此同时,还有相似数量的原油在海面上被人工引燃烧掉。

可惜的是,在上述压制漏油装置发生故障后,回收泄漏原油的工作被迫暂时停止,人们只能眼睁睁看着大量石油重新涌入海中,这场严重的生态灾难依然看不到尽头。

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