茶香股谈 :: 阅读主题 - 2010 对冲基金观察:Money Flow,GS & Meredith Whitney
茶香股谈首页 茶香股谈
北美华人谈股论经学习交流的网上茶馆。
 
 帮助帮助   搜索搜索   会员列表会员列表   团队团队   注册注册 
 个人资料个人资料   登录并检查站内短信登录并检查站内短信   登录登录 

茶香股谈首页  -> 资料区 ->  财经新闻
2010 对冲基金观察:Money Flow,GS & Meredith Whitney
发表新主题     回复主题 分页 上一页  1, 2, 3, 4
阅读上一个主题 :: 阅读下一个主题  
作者 正文
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-11-18 周五, 下午4:48    标题: 引用回复


Best Hedge Funds: Jim Simons' Medallion Fund

Insider Monkey: http://twitter.com/#!/insidermonkey


Jim Simons’ Medallion Fund is the best hedge fund that we have come across. The fund’s returns are so spectacular that Jim Simons became one of the world's richest people. Medallion Fund employs high frequency trading and exploits inefficiencies in the stock market. One strategy it uses takes advantage of the inefficiencies in the execution of large transactions. One of its algorithms determines whether a very large order is executed and front-runs it. As a result, Medallion experiences high transaction costs and high expenses; that’s why it charges a 5% fixed fee. On top of that it charges a performance fee, initially 20% but after 2000 it was increased to 36% and then to 44%.




Currently the fund’s investors are current and past employees and their families, so the fund’s 44% performance fee is a little irrelevant. Simons himself owns between 25-50% of Renaissance Technologies (RenTec), and he is also the largest investor in the Medallion Fund. So when Medallion reports a 50% return in a given year, the return is really close to 100% for most of the fund’s investors. Nevertheless, we’ll use its “net returns” to analyze Medallion’s alpha.

We obtained Medallion’s annual returns from several sources; when they weren’t available we estimated them using its cumulative returns. The main source is Rachel and William Ziemba’s Scenarios for Risk Management and Global Investment Strategies. Medallion’s annual returns since March 1988 are shown in the table above.

We used monthly net returns from January 1993 to April 2005 to calculate Medallion’s alpha. Our results indicate that Medallion’s returns weren’t correlated with the market, small caps, value stocks, or momentum stocks. Jim Simons’ Medallion Fund had a monthly alpha of 2.49% and an annual alpha of 34%. We have never seen a hedge fund achieve such a high alpha, so the Medallion Fund is the best hedge fund we have seen so far. Jim Simons’ alpha is even better than was Warren Buffett’s when he was much younger. If Simons had started investing 20 years earlier than he did, he would have been the richest man on the planet.

Disclosure: http://seekingalpha.com/article/244313-best-hedge-funds-jim-simons-medallion-fund



Here is an assessment of the overall hedge fund industry:

Hedge fund IRR has been pathetic By Simon Lack
http://www.absolutereturn-alpha.com/Article/2720404/Hedge-fund-IRR-has-been-pathetic.html?ArticleId=2720404&LS=Lack


Front running retail and mutual buys/sells is a tax.

david varadi and I here at css analytics have come pretty close to reverse engineering the medallion fund's returns. a rolling 5-year correlation analysis shows that our systems returns was 100% correlated to medallion's returns from 2002-2007.

[slide 1] dl.dropbox.com/u/12156...

A very simple ensemble performs surprisingly well in walk-forward testing.

Only has 3 components
short-term mean reversion
Intermediate mean reversion
Long-term trend

Transaction costs around 2% annually.

[slide 2] dl.dropbox.com/u/12156...

By looking at the returns of the Medallion fund, we can get a rough idea what’s driving the returns and the type of strategies being utilized.

Keep in mind that our simple little ensemble only consists of 3 basic components applied to a single market (S&P 500). Returns would be even better if improvements were included and applied to multiple markets.

[slide 3] dl.dropbox.com/u/12156...

Medallion’s returns since 2003 have become highly correlated with our simple ensemble model.

Because the ensemble has increasingly allocated to short-term mean-reversion strategy since 2003, we can deduce that mean-reversion type strategies have been driving Medallion Fund’s returns in recently years.

cheers,

henry

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-03 周二, 下午6:22    标题: 引用回复


高盛五问2012美国经济


Charts见链接:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-five-key-questions-2012


一年前,我站曾报道高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius的团队对2011年美国经济提出了10个问题并进行解答。年终回顾,他们预测对了其中的7个。

今年,Hatzius团队再一次就2012年的美国经济形势提出了五大问题,并给出了自己的答案。他们预测明年欧洲衰退将使美国经济增长减少1%,美国房价将探底,联储将于上半年进一步宽松。

1, 美国经济会回暖上行吗?

高盛回答:不会。美国经济的潜在增长可能弱于我们预期的四季度3.3%;石油供应紧缺将成为全球经济增长的限速阀;财政政策依然会拖经济后腿;欧洲衰退的影响有可能增强。



2, 欧债危机将多大程度上减缓美国经济增长?

高盛回答:我们的估计是1%,但不确定性很大。一方面,我们还没有看到任何影响;

另一方面,公共和私人部门的“节俭悖论(paradox of thrift)”导致的欧洲经济体经济稳定策略失败,将使欧洲经济面临下行危险,进而影响到美国。



3,美国房市2012年会探底么?

高声回答:会的。随着供应过剩的逐步削减和估值回归“均衡”,我们预期房价将在2012年底前探底。





4,与美联储的目标相比,通胀会过高或过低吗?

高盛回答:会远低于联储的目标。商品价格上升动力减弱,依然存在很大的产能过剩,我们认为2012年底核心通胀率将回落到1.25%,明显低于美联储的目标。



5,美联储会进一步宽松吗?

高盛回答:会的。

我们认为联储会进一步宽松,因为今年的真实GDP增长将减缓,而通胀水平也会将至目标线以下。由于产出水平与潜力相比还有很大差距,我们认为这是联储将进一步宽松的重要信号。2012年上半年会通过购买机构按揭债券(也可能国债)的方式进行宽松。我们还预期联储官员会在1月24和25日的FOMC会议上为联邦基金设定利率预测和官方通胀目标。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-17 周二, 上午6:08    标题: 引用回复


Fund Flows: Investors Go Defensive

Utilities, bonds experience inflows in the final weeks of 2011, pointing to a conservative bias for 2012

By Janet Levaux, AdvisorOne, January 3, 2012


Investors ended 2011 by taking more defensive positions, especially in bonds, a strategy that some analysts at EPFR Global expect should continue in 2012.

In the final week of December, EPFR Global says, U.S. equity and bond funds attracted “the bulk of what fresh money was committed,” totaling about $2.4 billion. Fund groups associated with Europe, the emerging markets and other riskier asset classes extended the outflow streaks that, in some cases, stretched back to the second quarter of 2011.

Equity funds tracked by the Boston–based research group took in a total of $412 million for the week ending Dec. 28, while bond funds drew $1.98 billion. For the full year, U.S. bond funds had net inflows of $62.3 billion in 2011 vs. $171.6 billion in 2010. They attracted about $9.04 billion in assets in the final quarter of last year.

Globally, bond fund flows were $6.3 billion in the fourth quarter and $110.7 billion in 2011 vs. $354.3 billion in 2010.

Overall, says EPFR, “the pendulum swung with often dizzying speed between risk aversion and hunger for yield” in 2011. The two constants, the group notes, were “aversion to European bonds and appetite for debt carrying an implicit or explicit guarantee from the U.S. government, with Europe bond funds posting record-setting outflows while mortgage-backed bond funds enjoyed record inflows.”

High-yield bonds and municipal bond funds saw about 20 weeks of outflows in early 2011, but then ended the year with more than 15 weeks of inflows. Flows into U.S. bond funds, for instance, were spurred on by events in Europe, which “triggered a flight to safety.” Investors also recovered their appetite for municipal debt and put over $14 billion into this fund group during the final four months of the year.

Emerging-market bond funds also had a mixed year, while European bond funds “suffered net redemptions [in] 46 of the year’s 52 weeks and broke their previous full year outflow record set in 2008,” with about $30 billion in net outflows in 2011.

Other Investments

As for equity funds, U.S.-focused funds took in $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. For the year, though, they had net outflows of $76 billion–up from outflows of $49 billion in 2010.

Equity funds concentrated in emerging-market investments had outflows of $7 billion in the final quarter of 2011. For all of 2011, they lost $47 billion–after attracting nearly $96 billion in 2010.

The developed economies overall saw their equity funds lose about $2.6 billion in fourth quarter. The full-year flows were -$31.4 billion vs. inflows of nearly $9 billion in 2010.

Money-market funds had inflows of close the $40 billion in final quarter of 2011, though they had outflows of nearly $110 million for all 12 months of last year. (They lost $500 million in 2010.)

Gold and precious-metals funds had outflows $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter, though they had total inflows of $8.1 billion for the year. That was down about 50% from previous year’s $16 billion.

Utilities-sector funds experienced inflows of close to $260 million in Q4’11 and almost $4 billion in 2011 vs. outflows of $1.3 billion in 2010. “During the final week of December, utilities-sector funds were “the only group to post inflows, capping a year that saw these funds take in 272% of the previous inflow record set in 2006,” according to EPFR.

The Dow Jones Utility Average ended 2011 up 14.74% in 2011, its best yearly performance since 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.53% last year.


The Investment Company Institute (ICI) Fund Flow Estimates

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466843-dorsey-wright-money-management/252805-fund-flows

Asset Class Performance in The Past


3 iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate Index
6 iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund
9 iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund
11 iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond TLT


Sector and Capitalization Performance

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行


上一次由纯属误会于2012-1-17 周二, 上午7:00修改,总共修改了5次
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-17 周二, 上午6:09    标题: 引用回复

TrimTabs Says Inflows Into Checking and Savings Accounts Eight Times Higher Than Inflows into Stock and Bond Mutual Funds and ETFs in First 11 Months of 2011. Retail Investors Shun Speculation and Stuff Money under the Mattress.

http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/01/13/trimtabs-says-inflows-into-checking-and-savings-accounts-eight-times-higher-than-inflows-into-stock-and-bond-mutual-funds-and-etfs-in-first-11-months-of-2011-retail-investors-shun-speculation-and-st/

Sausalito, CA – January 13, 2012 – TrimTabs Investment Research said today that in the first 11 months of 2011, investors poured eight times more money into checking and savings accounts as they did into stock and bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

“The Fed is doing almost everything in its power to entice investors to speculate in overpriced asset markets,” said TrimTabs Executive Vice President David Santschi. “But retail investors aren’t taking the bait.”

In a research note, TrimTabs explained that $889 billion poured into checking and savings accounts in the first 11 months of 2011 (complete data for December 2011 is not available). This inflow was more than eight times greater than the $109 billion that flowed into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs.

“It’s remarkable that inflows into checking and savings accounts outstripped inflows into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs in each of the first 11 months of 2011,” said Santschi.

Santschi added that in the latest three months from September 2011 through November 2011, the $139 billion inflow into checking and savings accounts was almost 13 times higher than the $11 billion inflow into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs.

“Most portfolio managers desperately want to believe the economy will improve so they can pocket bigger bonus checks for 2012 than they’ll be taking home for 2011,” said Santschi. “But the economy isn’t likely to get off to the races as long as investors are stuffing most of their money under the mattress.”




Source: Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, and TrimTabs Investment Research.

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-17 周二, 上午6:29    标题: 引用回复


Mutual, ETF, and Foreign Fund Flows

http://www.bearseatbulls.com/charts/mutual-etf-foreign-fund-flows/

Net Flow of Money in U.S. Mutual Funds, Traded ETFs, and Foreign Ownership of U.S. Securities















_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-17 周二, 上午6:35    标题: 引用回复


The Most Important Trend to Watch in 2012

By Larsen Kusick, analyst, Phase 1 Investor
Monday, January 9, 2012

One of the market's most important sentiment indicators is inching closer to buy mode...

According to research firm Lipper, investors have been pulling money out of stock mutual funds for six-straight months now.

To understand why this trend is so important, consider the amount of money involved...

Since the beginning of June, investors pulled a total of $152 billion out of stock-based mutual funds. That's the biggest round of selling in a six-month period since March 2009. Back then, investors responded to the financial crisis by pulling $188 billion out of stock-based mutual funds.

Looking back, March 2009 turned out to be the best time in decades to buy stocks. From the end of March 2009, the S&P 500 gained 40% over the next year. Riskier small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, surged more than 60% over the next 12 months.

The other notable fact about the selling trend: it's the longest streak we've seen since the six months ending in December 2008. Although the stock market swung wildly for a few more months, investors who were willing to buy at the start of 2009 made a fortune.

Over the long run, it pays to buy when "the crowd" is selling. Take a look at the chart below. It shows the mutual fund "flow" data since mid-2008. (I used a rolling three-month average to smooth the data.)




You can see the cyclical nature of investor sentiment toward stocks. Investors pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of the stock market during the financial crisis. Once the selling was exhausted, the market rallied.

In 2010 and early 2011, investors fell in love with stocks again, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars back into stocks. After buying peaked in April, the S&P 500 fell more than 15%. (International stock indexes did much worse.)

Money goes into stocks, money comes out of stocks... It's like watching the tide. There's no guarantee the flow of money out of stocks will end this month or next. The important thing is to recognize where we are in this cycle.

Sooner or later, investors will start shifting back into stocks. Once the cycle shifts back into bull mode, you can bet on double-digit gains in the market – and even triple-digit gains in riskier small-cap stocks.

Of course, "the crowd" will end up buying AFTER the market has spent months moving higher.


Friday, January 13, 2012
Stocks: Possibility Of A Correction Approaching - Part II (对于2012非常乐观的估计 by Tiho @ Short Side Of Long,值得回来反复验证查对!)



http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2012/01/stocks-possibility-of-correction_13.html

2. Investors Are Negative On Risk

Retail investors shown by mutual fund flows in chart above, are selling stocks at the fastest pace since middle 2002 and late 2008 - both of which marked major bottoms. What a horrible mistake this will turn out to be for the next several quarters or so. Add to that hedge funds having had an awful year, losing between 4% to 8% on average in 2011. That should make us all think that these managers will be chasing some performance in 2012, as their net long exposure is now as low as early 2009.

Underinvestment due to fear, with high levels of cash which does not yield anything, seems to be the name of the game for most fund managers.
Merrill Lynch Survey is showing exactly that, with managers holding large cash levels indicating lots of fire power on the sidelines to push risk assets higher.


_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-3-23 周五, 下午1:49    标题: 引用回复


高盛鼓吹:现在是百年难遇的买股时机

2012-03-23


高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)指出,股市正处于「百年难得一见」的买进良机,未来数年股市的报酬将高于债券。

高盛分析师欧本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)和华特斯彼勒(Matthieu Walterspiler)在21日发布的「全球策略报告」中说,以目前估值来看,现在是对债市「长期多头告别」(long good bye)并对股市「长期买进」(long good buy)的时机,因为他们预期股市未来几年将启动一波涨势。

高盛说,大胆由债市转向股市有其风险,包括各国推行紧缩措施、银行业和消费者的去槓桿,以及已开发国家老年人口日增等。

但高盛强调,即使未来企业盈余表现可能比过去十年弱,但情况或许没有目前股价所反映的那么糟。这家投资业者指出,信用紧俏风险以及投资支出与人口趋势对股市估值的冲击被「过度夸大」,科技和薪酬管控等因素将避免企业利润继续下滑,至少下滑幅度「不会像现在股价价位反映的那么大」。

高盛认为,强劲的企业资产负债表、和新兴经济体的人口成长,都说明股市估值应该更高,全球也能避开类似日本经济停滞一段时间的窘境。

这份报告说:「我们的全球预测显示,全球成长可能会在未来十年迈入巅峰期,如果未来的经济成长确实更强,就可能证明当前偏低的股市估值太过悲观。」这份报告提供比华尔街许多分析更长期的观点;金融业者通常会提供对当年市场走势的看法。

汇丰公司(HSBC)本周也说,近来的经济数据和其他指标显示,股市表现将优于债券,建议短期内股票和高收益债券可续抱。但汇丰也警告股市等风险资产的涨势似乎日渐趋缓,倘若经济数据逐步改善的趋势骤止,建议大举减持风险资产部位。

Jefferies集团首席全球股市策略师达比预测,第一季过后,全球股市可能随投资人获利了结而回档修正5%到9%。

MSCI AC世界指数今年来已大涨12%,本季涨幅可望创2010年第三季以来最大。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-1-14 周一, 下午11:02    标题: 引用回复


投资者踊跃入市,美股看好

信源:世华财讯|编辑:2013-01-14


过去的这一个星期进入美国股票基金的钱数是11年来最高,很多基金经理说这可是一个标志,说明投资者对美国股市的信心恢复了。

在同一星期里涌入世界股市的新钱达222亿,是自2007年九月以来最高的,在历史上讲也是第二高点,最高的一次是发生在1996年。

自从一月一日美国议会扭转了财政悬崖之后,标普500指数上涨了3%。去年标普500的总回报率为16%。

投资者对于美国股票的胃口增大当然是说明对美国经济的信心上升了,但是同时也说明人们找不到什么可以替代股票回报的投资产品。因此,一些分析人士并不认为股市会大涨,他们指出很多散户对股市仍然有顾虑,特别是即将到来的美国债务上限问题。

债券基金经理们说近年来债券的上涨可能不会持续下去,他们不再看好企业债券和所谓的“垃圾债券”。着名的债券基金公司Loomis Sayles & Co副总裁Dan Fuss警告投资者要改变投资组合了,因为未来的利率走势将是上期处于上升的。他指出:整体来看美国股票要比债券更适合投资。

回顾2012年,美国股市的回报率远远超过货币市场基金和一些债券,因此Credit Suisse AG的策略专家Barbara Reinhard说投资者可能会对股市更有信心,他们会把资金从债券转移到股市。

Credit Suisse的一份报告中说,从心理角度讲,投资者受投资失败的影响大,比如在金融危机中亏了钱的人现在还不愿意回到股市;同时,那些在债券中赚到了钱的人也不愿意离开债券市场,尽管债券已经明显开始走下坡。不过这些人迟早会认识到股市表现不错,会追进去。

纽约经纪行Cadaret Grant & Co的总裁Arthur Grant说上个星期还不是转折点。他认为一个星期还不足以改变人们的心理。

目前还有很多的资金停放在无风险的产品里,这些钱随时可以回到股市,但是人们还在观望,因为眼下最大的风险是来自美国政府。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-3-15 周五, 上午6:08    标题: 引用回复


这次牛皮一个劲地吹是有内在原因的。 从去年QE3 以来,债券市场和风险市场的形势产生了质的变化。从对比图中可见,35%的债券资金流
出,部分流入了股票市场。 现在还在流出。 所以如果光从TA上来刻舟求剑,完全是自己忽悠自己。资本市场,资金流说了算。 把资金从债券
里逼出来,是大本的原想,也是市场情绪趋于看多美国市场,大牛市看来是刚刚才开始。



Capital Markets Bond Index vs S&P 500 (Weekly Chart / 3 Years)

Money Outflow vs Money Inflow


_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-3-15 周五, 上午7:25    标题: 引用回复


近13天…350亿美元舍债就股


【经济日报╱编译余晓惠/综合外电】
2013.03.13


华尔街分析师一致认为,2013年最火红的话题就是大量资金由债市转进股市,尤其美国经济可望加速成长的预期更助长这个趋势。过去三、四个月确实已经出现这样的迹象;最近13天也有350亿美元流入股票基金。

拜投资人风险胃纳增加所赐,全球股市走高,美国道琼工业指数和日本日经225指数都在最近几周屡次改写新高。同一时间,传统的避险投资遭到抛售,指标性的10年期公债殖利率年初以来上涨逾50个基点,目前如今超过2%。

虽然有些人反对大轮动的说法,但避险基金桥水联合的创办人达里欧(Ray Dalio)认为,2013将是改变的一年:长期藏在床垫下、存在银行帐户的现金,将投入股票等风险性资产。2013年确实有大量资金流入股市,但令人意外的是,债券基金尚未流失大量资金。

美银美林(BofA Merril Lynch)投资策略长哈内特(Michael Hartnett)观察客户的投资部位,认为债转股的大轮动已经展开。他说:「过去13天来,已有350亿美元流入股票基金(当中的190亿美元流向只做多头的股市)。」

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-4-13 周六, 下午9:35    标题: 引用回复

有意思的是,不少人认为高盛报告经常忽悠人,但当大家都以为高盛言论不可信之际,2012年末A股却如其所料果真大涨,
所以只要是大部分人所想的到的结论,那往往一定是错的。大家不要反坐高盛的思路,而是要反坐自己的思路。奇准无比。


高盛:2015年底前全球股市回报率表现强劲为牛市

新浪财经 2013年04月13日


摘要:

高盛在最近发布的一份报告中预计,在2015年底前全球股市回报率表现强劲,除日本以外的亚洲股市的年化总回报率将到达21%。
高盛集团预计,从现在起到2015年底为止,除日本以外的亚洲股市的年化总回报率为21%左右;欧洲股市为19%,日本15%,美国为9%。
就股指而言,高盛集团预计标普500指数到2015年底将从目前的1581点上升至1900点;欧洲斯托克600指数预计将从最近交易中的291点攀升至430点。



  北京时间4月13日凌晨消息,高盛在最近发布的一份报告中预计,在2015年底前全球股市回报率表现强劲,除日本以外的亚洲股市的年化总回报率将到达21%。

  就股指而言,高盛集团预计标普500指数到2015年底将从目前的1581点上升至1900点;欧洲斯托克600指数(Stoxx Europe 600 Index)预计将从最近交易中的291点攀升至430点。

  高盛集团分析师在报告中指出:“我们预计,亚洲将继续呈现出强劲的增长势头;而与此同时,欧洲和美国也将逐步远离金融危机所创造出来的悬崖。按照我们的预期,美国的增长率将在今年第四季度达到符合以往趋势的水准,而且这种增长率将是可持续的;而欧洲则 要到这一预测周期的末期才能恢复到这一水平,这反映了欧元区内部不平衡性所带来的逆风。”

  高盛集团称,在全球所有地区中,股市的增长都将主要以公司利润的增长为推动力。据预计,这一预测周期中欧洲市场上的公司利润增长速度将比危机以前的水平高出25%,除日本以外的亚洲地区高出90%。

  高盛集团指出:“对日本公司利润进行建模研究的难度是最高的,原因是该国经济在过去几年时间里已经发生了多次结构性的改变,公司利润则一直都处于波动性很高的状态。在未来,日本当局重大的政策改变将令形势变得更加复杂,原因是该国首相安倍晋三正在推进 各种措施以终结通缩。我们认为,新政策及其将会带来的日元走软的结果将推动公司利润强劲增长,令股本回报率发生阶段性的改变。”

  所谓“股本回报率”(Return on Equity),是一项评估公司盈利能力的指标,可以用来比较同一行业内不同企业的盈利能力。

  高盛集团指出,上述乐观的增长预期是以当前的经济复苏形势为基础的;如果经济复苏进程中出现任何令人失望的因素,则这些预期都将随之偏离轨迹。分析师称:“我们判断,市场已经在很大程度上考虑到了当前的经济环境,因此除非经济复苏进程继续下去,否则我们预期的回报率不太可能持续实现。

(文武/编译)


Goldman Sachs: Strong equity returns globally through 2015
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/12/goldman-sachs-strong-equity-returns-globally-through-2015/



  高盛最近观点:

  高盛:日本股市一年内还可上涨20%

  高盛建议卖空美国10年期国债

  高盛下调今明两年金价预期

  高盛:全球经济增长再度加速放缓

  高盛:美国制造业复兴是虚构的

  高盛:美国2014年经济增速或加快至2.9%


http://finance.sina.com.cn/world/20130413/051115136654.shtml

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-4-14 周日, 上午3:13    标题: 引用回复


Goldman cuts US Q1 GDP tracking estimate from 3.2% to 2.9% after today's weak retail sales data

StreamingNews, April 12, 2013


2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 4/26
Release For: Q1:13

GDP @ 8:30 AM ET, Friday Apr 26
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=22&month=4&year=2013&cust=mam&lid=0

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-7-26 周五, 下午9:32    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 写道:

年内股市崩盘的概率有多大?

财经网|2013-06-17


7. “嘀嗒,嘀嗒……轰!”InvestmentNews预计债市崩盘就在眼前

几个月前,InvestmentNews头版标题振聋发聩,你彷佛听到了警笛在呼啸。它用大号粗体字警告:“嘀嗒,嘀嗒……轰!”读者是九万名信任InvestmentNews预测的专业财务顾问。

这是2008年来最强烈的一次警告:“当债券这个定时炸弹爆炸,你客户的投资组合会变成什么样子?”问的是“当”,而不是“如果”。没错,他们预计债券炸弹会很快爆炸。

醒醒吧,InvestmentNews认为数百万美国人面临着极端的危险,他们“不知道自己即将遭遇什么……嘀嗒,嘀嗒……轰!”



Whitney Says Wall Street's Biggest Layoffs Ahead

July 25, 2013 (Bloomberg) -- Meredith Whitney, chief executive officer of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, talks about Detroit's decision to file for bankruptcy,
the municipal bond market and the outlook for financials. Whitney speaks with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance."
Ralph Schlosstein, chief executive officer of Evercore Partners Inc., also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-8-16 周五, 上午4:37    标题: 引用回复


高盛:标普500指数12个月内将上涨8%至1825

2013-8-13


高盛称,随着经济增长复苏,标普500指数将在未来12个月上涨8%,至1825点。

高盛首席美国证券分析师David Kostin建议购买大部分收入来自美国国内的公司的股票。随着数据显示零售数据连续第四个月增长,标普500指数周二上涨。零售数据意味着,随着就业增长,美国家庭正在增加开支。

“需要关注的真正的问题是,加息是经济好转的反映,”Kostin表示,“现在最好的策略就是留在美国市场,从现在到今年底。”

美国证券分析师在年初对股市的上涨普遍过于谨慎,而随着标普500指数飙升至新高,高盛、美银和瑞信都提高了年终的预测目标。彭博的市场分析师调查显示,目前的预测表明,截至12月份标普500指数将回撤10%至1677点。

Kostin预计,标普500指数将在2013年达到1750点,2014年达到1900点。纽约时间周二,该指数上涨了0.28%,至1694.17点,今年总共上涨了19%。

FOMC决策层一直在讨论放缓QE的步伐,美联储的货币刺激政策已经帮助标普500指数从2009年的熊市低点上涨了150%。美联储已经表示,经济数据将决定每月850亿美元的购债计划是否削减。

标普500指数现在的市盈率是16.3倍,接近2010年5月以来的最高水平。彭博的数据显示,这一估值仍然低于1998年以来的平均水平。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2014-1-14 周二, 上午5:52    标题: 引用回复


高盛警告股市跌幅会大于10%

WSJ|2014-01-14
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101331228


Goldman Sachs(高盛)的分析人士认为股市目前这个高度,很可能出现一个较大的调整,因为企业的业绩增长跟不上股价增长。

本星期一高盛的市场策略专家指出S&P500指数已经升得太高,有67%的机率会下跌,下跌幅度可能超过10%。

目前多数人都是看好股市的,而对股市悲观的只是少数。少数人士中包括Deutsche Bank的David Bianco和Wells Capital Management的Jim Paulsen,他们认为股市上涨的空间是有限的,2013年股市上涨了29%,应该出现一个调整。

高盛的策略专家说目前S&P500处于比较合理的价位,今后股市是否能够再升就要看美国企业的利润增长如何,目前S&P500的股价与业绩比值为15.9%。

不过也还是有亮点,高盛认为到2014年底S&P500会升到2100点,2016年升到2200点,也就是说三年涨20%。只是目前来讲投资者可能会遇到一些波动,因为美国企业很难增加利润。

目前S&P500企业的股价与业绩比值为15.9倍,高盛认为这个数字的增长空间也不大。

从历史记录看,在1976年以来,S&P500企业的股价与业绩比值达到17只有两次,一次是科技泡沫时,另一次是2003-04之间的四个月。

高盛指出除了那两次以外,美国股市的股价与业绩比基本上没有超过17的,另外还有通货膨胀和债券回报率的反作用,因此升到17的可能性很小。



http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/13/goldman-sachs-stock-valuations-are-lofty-by-almost-any-measure/
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/01/13/goldmans-kostin-stocks-are-starting-to-look-overvalued/

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
显示文章:   
发表新主题   回复主题 茶香股谈首页  -> 资料区 ->  财经新闻 所有的时间均为 美国东部时间
分页 上一页  1, 2, 3, 4
4页,共4

 
论坛转跳:  
不能在本论坛发表新主题
不能在本论坛回复主题
不能在本论坛编辑自己的文章
不能在本论坛删除自己的文章
不能在本论坛发表投票
不能在这个论坛添加附件
不能在这个论坛下载文件