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2010 对冲基金观察:Money Flow,GS & Meredith Whitney
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文章时间: 2010-6-01 周二, 下午1:00    标题: 引用回复

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124690424&ps=cprs

从100K到 120m, 无法相信 ...

Ledley and Mai were two guys in their early 30s who decided to start their own hedge fund with just over $100,000. They quickly made more than $15 million by betting on financial events that are extremely unlikely to occur — and therefore didn't cost much to bet against.

By betting against subprime mortgages, Ledley and Mai's $15 million investment ballooned to $120 million


--------------------------------

过去30年最牛的financial advisor靠large cash position取胜

其实很多FUND赚的还是管理费。 这个就跟开中餐馆一样,是个business而已。做好生意比做好TRADE重要得多。

two things in the industry:
how to create a great business
how to create a great investment strategy

A great business is, it can sell shit to its customers and customers still love it. Many people can do it in the industry, relationship is the key
A great investment strategy is, a much harder task. You need go to the open market and fight, to get money to your pocket. Few people can do it. Even those post great returns curve over years. They overall may still lose money on a PNL basis(great % at lower AUM and then a sudden blow up at higer AUM, net net PNL maybe negative, which is the case for Tiger)

To be successful in this industry, you need have both, or at least the first one. I met a football coach nearby, who used to be a portfolio manager for $100M or so. He retired 10 years ago. He told me he doesn't get along well with a guy down the street. Who manager $20B, have a research team, wear nice suit everyday and go out with private jet to meet client, play golf etc. He only charge 1% manage fee and his 10+ head count research team do all the stock picks for him. BUT, he never used them. He always re-balance once a index re-balance, so net net, he just under perform index consistently for 1% or so. It is still a good business, nice $10+M income and life style. Of course a great business is just this one + a genius trader, but it is hard to get one and it is too risky to get one too. So he is not bothering to get one at all.

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上一次由纯属误会于2010-8-14 周六, 上午7:05修改,总共修改了1次
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文章时间: 2010-6-01 周二, 下午1:35    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 写道:
Goldman Sachs Says Sell-Off Consistent With Past Corrections, Sees S&P 500 at 1,300
May 24, 2010 2:57 PM EDT



S&P 500 Drop Is Temporary Slump, JPMorgan’s Lee Says (Update1)
By Rita Nazareth and Lori Rothman


June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The five-week drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 is consistent with a temporary pullback within a bull market, said Thomas J. Lee, the chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“It is a pretty normal correction in a bull market,” Lee said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It pays up to be a slow buyer here. If you start to get enough positive headlines to offset the negatives, that would be a way to build confidence. Investors are seeing good opportunities to buy, and that could be as a sign of potential capitulation as well.”

The S&P 500 has fallen 11 percent from a 19-month high on April 23 on concern that widening budget deficits in Europe could derail global growth.

When you have these types of corrections, the groups hit the hardest are the ones that bounced back the most,” Lee said, citing energy and raw-materials shares as the ones poised to recover faster. S&P 500 companies in those industries have fallen 16 percent and 13 percent, respectively, since April 23.


Last Updated: June 1, 2010 13:14 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-6-01 周二, 下午1:38    标题: 引用回复


Analysts Forecasts See 25% Stock Gain Defy El-Erian
(Update2)
By Lynn Thomasson


June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest monthly drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since February 2009 is ratifying Mohamed El-Erian’s prediction for a new normal of below-average returns. Analysts say not so fast.

Combined price estimates from more than 2,000 forecasters tracked by Bloomberg show the S&P 500 will rise 25 percent in the next year, the fastest projected rate since February 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rally above 1,350 will be led by industries most tied to the economy, according to analysts who boosted individual share projections by an average of 0.9 percent in May, the 14th straight monthly increase.

The estimates show Wall Street firms are discounting El- Erian’s assertions as well as Europe’s credit crisis and instead focusing on economists’ growth projections, which call for U.S. gross domestic product to expand 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2011. Analysts are telling investors to buy landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc. and tractor maker Deere & Co. to benefit from the fastest expansion in six years.

“There’s a lot of potential demand embedded in analysts’ expectations that I think will be very real,” said David Goerz, who oversees $17 billion at Highmark Capital Management Inc. in San Francisco. “Traders are trying to layer on a debt crisis similar to what they saw in 2008 and drawing the same conclusions, even though it couldn’t be more different.”

Estimates for companies in the S&P 500 show profits may jump 19 percent in 2010, the most since 1995, and 18 percent in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index trades for 13.4 times 2010 per-share earnings forecasts, compared with an average multiple of 16.4 times reported income since 1954.

Highest Since 2008

Should analysts’ forecasts for a 25 percent gain in the S&P 500 come true, the gauge would climb to 1,361 by next May, the highest level since June 2008. The projected advance reflects individual share-price estimates for all the companies in the index, adjusted according to their weighting. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent to 1,081.45 as of 9:59 a.m. in New York today.

More than 77 percent of S&P 500 companies beat first- quarter profit estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The surprises failed to keep the S&P 500 from tumbling 8.2 percent in May as Spain lost its AAA credit grade and bank funding costs increased to the highest levels since July.

The retreat cut the rally that began almost 15 months ago to 61 percent from as much as 80 percent at its peak on April 23. The plunge came as the London interbank offered rate for three-month dollar loans rose for 13 consecutive days through May 27 to 0.538 percent in a sign banks are becoming more reluctant to lend, the British Bankers’ Association reported.

Odds of Default

Credit default swaps on Greece signal a 45 percent chance the country will fail to repay its debt within five years even after the European Union pledged almost $1 trillion to ease the region’s budget crisis. The Athens Stock Exchange Composite Index has dropped 29 percent this year, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has lost 12 percent and the S&P 500 has fallen 2.3 percent.

“Structural changes are often omitted from analysts’ assessments until the evidence is truly overwhelming and the implications have already imposed themselves,” El-Erian, who oversees $1.1 trillion as chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg. “Structural changes are among the hardest things for analysts to identify and to price.”

‘Groundless’ Reports

The S&P 500 climbed 0.2 percent to 1,089.41 last week. Since falling as low as 1,040.78 on May 25, the benchmark index for American shares rallied 4.7 percent after China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said a report that it may reduce holdings of euro assets was “groundless.” The agency has $2.4 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest.

None of the 13 U.S. equity strategists tracked by Bloomberg News has reduced his prediction for the S&P 500’s level at the end the year. The average outlook is for the measure to close at 1,268 on Dec. 31, a 16 percent gain.

“Growth is coming through pretty well and there’s obviously some spillover from what’s going on abroad, but it’s probably not enough to move the needle,” said Myles Zyblock, the chief institutional strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto. “We went from no worries at all to very pervasive worries about everything, so that might be a good time to scale back in a little bit.”

‘Best in Class’

AvalonBay shares may rise 10 percent to $108 in the next year, according to Paula Poskon, who covers developers for Robert W. Baird & Co. in McLean, Virginia. Poskon told investors to buy the Arlington, Virginia-based company on May 25. Her stock-price forecast is the most bullish among 14 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

“As the global chaos brought a broad selloff to the market, it felt like it put best-in-class, high-growth stocks on sale,” said Poskon, whose picks have earned investors 38 percent over the past year. “I’m a believer in the growth story in the second half of 2011, 2012 time frame.”

Credit Suisse Group AG, based in Zurich, and Jefferies Group Inc. of New York are among at least 10 firms that lifted price estimates for Deere in May, pushing projections to $72.20 a share, Bloomberg data show. That implies a 25 percent climb by May 2011 for the world’s biggest farm-equipment maker. Rising demand for tractors and combines led Moline, Illinois-based Deere to raise its annual profit and sales forecasts on May 19 for the second time this year.

Buying Opportunity

Steve Leuthold, who oversees $4.2 billion at Leuthold Group LLC, said the S&P 500’s 11 percent retreat since April 23 represents a “huge buying opportunity” in a May 20 report. The firm recently bought semiconductor stocks on speculation the shares are cheap relative to the industry’s earnings prospects, said Director of Research Doug Ramsey in an interview from Minneapolis.

“There’s no way the European debt problems are going to be enough to derail the growth that’s taking place in our economy and in Asia,” said Ramsey, who estimates the S&P 500 will rally at least 19 percent by year-end. “We’re in the camp that hasn’t revised down because of the pullback.”


Last Updated: June 1, 2010 10:01 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 下午10:10    标题: 引用回复


分析师:美国股市比V形反转还好 预期2012年创新高

2010年05月31日


  欧洲债务危机可能让大西洋彼岸的经济成长减缓。中国大陆正采取措施,为过热的经济降温。美国房屋市场看来仍疲弱。似乎有充份的理由,让自己成为 股市空头,尤其过去一年,股市已大幅上涨。

  別这么說,Formula资本公司创办人James Altucher說。经济与市场将持续让人惊讶,他說。

  其实,他称未来经济复甦将呈打钩状(右边较左边长许多),而非传言已久的V形反转。「争论已经结束,V形已经出现,现在的问题是,涨势是否会持 续 我认为会,」他說。

  他为何如此自信?

  1.就业市场正在改善。「临时工人数已连续七个月增加,」创2004年以来最快速度。平均每小工资与每周工时亦均上升,美国上个月增加了29万 个就业机会,为四年来最大增幅。此外,他还指出,「过去四个月,小本经营与新创企业的就业人数增加了190万人。」

  2.4月汽车销售较去年同期增加25%。「连丰田汽车销售也较去年同期增加27%。」

  3.成屋销售簽约指数较去年同期增加12%。

  Altucher有信心,这些因素都将变成创记录的获利,预期明年底,S&P 500指数将创新历史高点。「我知道民众听了可能会笑我,但是这一切都将获得证实,他說。

  那么该如何从中获利呢

  「买进有三项特色的股票。即获利高于预期,营收高于预期,及调高本季获利预估的企业,」他說。

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文章时间: 2010-6-09 周三, 下午3:35    标题: 引用回复


Cohen Expands SAC Trading Team as Hedge Funds Groom Successors


June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Steven A. Cohen, the 53-year-old founder of SAC Capital Advisors LLP, picked four of his best people earlier this year to help select investments for the $2 billion he personally oversees at the hedge-fund firm.

Louis Bacon, 53, bolstered the ranks at his Moore Capital Management LP by recruiting four senior managers in the past 20 months, while Thomas Steyer, 52, designated Andrew Spokes as his likely successor in the event he leaves Farallon Capital Management LLC, which he started in 1986.

The appointments show how some of the most successful hedge-fund managers are preparing for the time when they scale back their roles or retire. They are surrounding themselves with experienced traders in an effort to keep clients from pulling out after they are no longer running the funds.

“There’s an evolution in the hedge-fund industry where the baby boomers are handing over more and more responsibilities to a younger generation,” said Matias Ringel, head of research in New York at CMA North America, which provides research and advice to investors. “They’re in their fifties now and likely thinking more seriously about retirement.”

An earlier cohort of hedge-fund entrepreneurs, including Julian Robertson and Michael Steinhardt, shut their firms after deciding they no longer wanted to invest money for clients. Robertson, 77, who returned an average of 25 percent annually over two decades, closed Tiger Management LLC in 2000 after losses and investor withdrawals cut assets to $6 billion from $22 billion two years earlier. Steinhardt, 69, shut his business in 1995 following a 28-year run in which he posted average annual gains of 24 percent.

Founder’s Role

Hedge funds are built on the reputations of their founders, and persuading investors to stay after they depart will be a challenge, according to Jean Keller, chief executive officer of Geneva-based 3A SA.

“Most of them are intrinsically linked to their charismatic and entrepreneurial founders,” said Keller, whose firm has $2.2 billion invested in the private partnerships on behalf of clients. “Few hedge funds will succeed in a management transition.”

John Horseman, 51, who started Horseman Capital Management LP in 2000, told clients in November that he would step down this year, leaving fund managers Russell Clark and John-Paul Burke at the helm. Assets in Horseman Global, the London-based firm’s biggest fund, fell to $444 million last month from $3.67 billion in October, mainly on client withdrawals, according to an investor.

Carol Brown, a spokeswoman for Horseman Capital, which oversees about $1 billion, declined to comment.

Willingness to Change

Cohen started SAC Capital -- the name is derived from his initials -- in 1992 with $25 million, and the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm now oversees $12 billion. Adding the four senior traders will allow him to focus on fewer investments, mentor employees on portfolios and manage risk, according to an April 28 letter sent to investors.

“I have always felt that one of the keys to the firm’s success over the years has been our ability and willingness to change the organization,” Cohen, who turns 54 on June 11, said in the letter.

The traders selected by Cohen each has responsibility for an industry -- energy, technology, media and health care -- and for discussing investments with the rest of the firm’s managers and analysts, according to the letter. The sector heads, whom the letter didn’t name, will also continue to run their own portfolios.

Concern for Investors

“There’s no positive spin on him bringing in people to help on his portfolio,” said Peter Rup, chief investment officer at Artemis Wealth Advisors LLC, a New York-based firm that allocates money to hedge funds for clients. “It suggests that he is stepping back, managing less capital over time, and that’s not exactly in the best interests of his investors.”

Cohen, in an interview in next month’s edition of Vanity Fair magazine, said, “I don’t have to sit at the desk. Seriously, I’ve got nothing left to prove.”

Jonathan Gasthalter, a spokesman for SAC Capital, declined to comment.

Bacon, who started Moore Capital in 1989, hired Greg Coffey in November 2008 as co-chief investment officer of his European business, a new position. Coffey, 39, was a top-performing emerging-markets trader at GLG Partners Inc. whose resignation triggered $2.2 billion in withdrawal requests. In January 2010, Bacon added Jean-Philippe Blochet, 46, a co-founder of London- based Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, as a senior fund manager. Brevan Howard is Europe’s largest hedge-fund firm.

Matthew Carpenter, 43, who ran a unit at Citigroup Inc. that traded U.S. stocks with more than $1 billion of the bank’s own money, joined in May as Bacon’s head of equity trading, a post that had been empty since Stanley Shopkorn gave it up in 2000. Carpenter’s deputy at New York-based Citigroup, Matthew Newton, 40, also joined Moore, which oversees $14 billion.

‘Key Man’

Shawn Pattison, a spokesman for New York-based Moore, declined to comment.

At Farallon, co-managing partner Spokes was named the firm’s second so-called key man at the start of the year. That means investors have the right to withdraw their money if either manager leaves the San Francisco-based firm. Its hedge funds would be liquidated if both Spokes, 45, and Steyer stepped down.

Mary Beth Grover, a spokeswoman for the $20.7 billion firm, declined to comment.

The hedge-fund industry has seen assets rise more than 10- fold to $1.55 trillion since 1994, according to New York-based Credit Suisse Tremont Index LLC. Firms that once employed a couple dozen people now employ hundreds. SAC Capital, which started with nine people, now has about 800 employees.

Preserving the DNA

“Hedge funds are growing up and have been transitioning from a one-man, talent-based business to something more institutional,” said Jaeson Dubrovay, partner at Aksia LLC, a New York-based firm that advises clients on hedge-fund investments. “If the founder selects and trains four or five lieutenants by steeping them in the culture of the firm, then his DNA will continue. It’s a 5- or 10-year process, but it can work.”

Firms that have expanded their senior ranks include Bruce Kovner’s Caxton Associates LLC and Israel Englander’s Millennium Management LLC.

Kovner, 65, promoted Andrew Law in 2008 to the new post of chief investment officer of the $8.6 billion firm. Law, 43, who is based in London, has worked at New York-based Caxton since 2003.

Englander, whose firm manages $7.4 billion, hired Michael Gelband two years ago from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as head of fixed income. Gelband, 51, joins Chief Risk Officer David Nolan, 61, and Jonathan Larkin, 35, head of equities, in helping Englander allocate money and set risk limits for the firm’s 120 trading teams.

Difficulty Retaining Talent

Englander, 61, started New York-based Millennium in 1989 and stepped away from directly trading money after five years.

Kathy Lacey, a spokeswoman for Caxton, and Tripp Kyle, a spokesman for Millennium, declined to comment.

Developing senior management is difficult at hedge funds because successful traders often want to build their own firms, reputations and legacies, according to Ellen Schubert, chief adviser to consultant Deloitte LP’s asset-management services practice in New York.

“It’s hard to keep good portfolio managers in the stable,” she said.

Simons, Shaw

James Simons and David Shaw are examples of big-name hedge fund founders who engineered their own exits without shutting their companies.

Simons, the 72-year-old mathematician who started Renaissance Technologies Corp. after leaving academia in 1977, retired at the end of last year and turned over responsibility for the firm to former co-presidents Bob Mercer, 63, and Peter Brown, 55. Renaissance, based in East Setauket, New York, oversees $15 billion.

Shaw, who started New York-based D.E. Shaw & Co. in 1988, ceded oversight of his firm to a six-person committee in 2002, when client assets were $2.36 billion. The firm has grown to $22 billion, according to its website. Shaw, 59, who has a doctorate from Stanford University, spends most of his time as a chief scientist at D.E. Shaw Research, which conducts research in computational biochemistry.

Both Renaissance and D.E. Shaw use computer models to trade, a style known as quantitative investing, although D.E. Shaw has more than a third of its assets in discretionary investments. Spokesmen for both firms declined to comment.

Easier for Quants

“It’s easier for the founders of the quant firms to pass on the reins since their businesses are mainly model-driven,” said Guido Bolliger, Paris-based chief investment officer of Olympia Capital Management, which invests $2.7 billion in hedge funds for clients. “But for most of the macro funds and some of the stock-pickers, it will be more difficult.”

Macro fund-managers seek to profit from broad economic trends by trading everything from bonds to commodities.

“It’s good that veteran managers are thinking about deepening the benches but it’s not going to be easy,” Bolliger said. “While there are a lot of smart people in the hedge-fund world, there are not that many geniuses. The proof will be in the pudding in terms of performance.”


To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: June 9, 2010 00:00 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-6-09 周三, 下午8:04    标题: 引用回复

* WSJ. JUNE 9, 2010

Bacon Feels Market's Wrath
Star at Moore Capital Turned More Hopeful on Europe, Lost 9.2% in May


By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN And JENNY STRASBURG


Even the biggest of star investors suffered as global markets tumbled.

Louis Bacon, who has scored annual gains of about 20% on average over the past two decades, shouldered losses of 9.2% in May in his biggest hedge fund, according to investors. It was the fund's weakest one-month performance in its history, and makes Mr. Bacon one of the higher-profile investors recently snared in the European debt crisis.

Mr. Bacon's fund, Moore Global Investments, underperformed the industry's average decline in May of 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 7.6% loss for that month.

May was the worst month for hedge funds since November 2008, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. Nearly every strategy lost money. Big funds managed by SAC Capital, Paulson & Co. and Third Point Management lost between 2.3% and 5.6% in the month, say people familiar with the funds. Their woes ranged from concentrated bets on consumer companies to financial-company wagers. With markets in flux, performance could snap back; Mr. Bacon, for example, has scored big gains in the past after periods of weakness.

The average hedge fund was up 1.3% for 2010 through May, compared with a 6.4% decline for the big Moore fund.

Mr. Bacon, who earlier in the year had a bleak outlook regarding European markets, stumbled in dialing back his pessimism, according to investors. He also was too bearish on U.S. Treasurys, they say.

Also distinguishing the recent slump for Moore: Mr. Bacon's own trades went awry in the past month, rather than those of others at the firm, according to people close to the matter, leading to the bulk of the recent losses.

The losses come as Mr. Bacon's firm, Moore Capital Management, has been responding to regulatory scrutiny. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently fined Moore $25 million to settle accusations that a former portfolio manager at the firm tried to manipulate futures prices, and that Moore failed to supervise the manager. Moore neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.

In March, the U.K. Financial Services Authority accused a London-based execution trader working at Moore, who's now on administrative leave, of participation in an insider-trading ring. The accusations don't involve funds managed by Moore, and it is cooperating with the probe, the firm has said. Lawyers for the trader said he's "working to clear his name."

Mr. Bacon built Moore into a $14 billion powerhouse thanks to savvy "macro" investments, or trades in global currency, commodity and other markets based on anticipating political, economic and market shifts.

The trading difficulties are generating buzz on Wall Street because of Mr. Bacon's track record, and cautionary notes he sounded this spring about the European debt crisis.

In a mid-April letter, Mr. Bacon warned his investors of a "potential breakdown" of the European Monetary Union. He predicted "long-term disastrous consequences" for the union and Europe resulting from Europe's efforts to help Greece, and equated the efforts to "socializing their ills and taxing once again the prodigious northern European workers."

But Mr. Bacon, who urges his traders not to become too closely attached to investment positions, soon adjusted his own view, according to people familiar with the matter.

When European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund in early May announced a $955 billion effort to prop up Greece and other euro-zone governments facing debt troubles, Mr. Bacon began eliminating some hedges on Moore's positions, these people say. He also became more worried about U.S. Treasurys, laying some bets against them.

European and global markets were crushed in May. Investors quickly flocked to Treasurys, seeking safety, sending prices higher and hurting Mr. Bacon's bearish wagers.

The losses caught his investors by surprise. The secretive billionaire, who mostly resides in London but spent $175 million in 2007 to buy the 171,000-acre Trinchera Ranch in Colorado from the Forbes family, is known for limiting trading losses and keeping a lid on his portfolio's volatility.

Some say they're sticking with Mr. Bacon, and there aren't signs of a rush to the exits by clients, according to people close to the matter.

During the past 20 years, the firm suffered just three negative years—1994, 2002 and 2008, when Moore Global lost 14%, 4.4% and 4.6%, respectively, according to investors.

In 2008, as markets collapsed, Mr. Bacon told clients that the firm was hurt by its losses in stocks and emerging markets, but Mr. Bacon's own macro wagers were profitable.

In recent years he has hired industry stars, including Greg Coffey, a former GLG Partners Inc. heavyweight, to augment his trading staff.

This year started well for Mr. Bacon. Moore scored gains of about 2% the first quarter.

In the April letter, Mr. Bacon told clients that he and Moore's traders were finding "fertile area for profits," despite the global turmoil. The firm was making wagers connected to different recovery timelines for various countries and regions, he wrote.

Other Moore traders also lost money in May as markets turned. Mr. Coffey's emerging-market fund dropped about 2% in May and is down 7.5% in 2010. A $3 billion fund Mr. Bacon runs, Moore Macro Managers, is up almost 4% this year.

For his part, Mr. Bacon isn't letting the brutal period change the way he trades. He continues to spend more than 15 hours a day working. And while some rivals are cutting their exposure to markets on the heels of last month's results, Mr. Bacon has told traders not to reduce their appetite for risk.

That is partly because many of his colleagues' trades have been working. Mr. Bacon, by contrast, has exited his own losing trades in recent days.

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文章时间: 2010-6-10 周四, 上午11:05    标题: 引用回复

这个是暂时做多EUR的信号。 Laughing


Goldman Sachs Slashes Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts

Last update: 6/10/2010


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Thursday revised its forecasts for the euro's exchange rate against the dollar sharply lower, reflecting continuing political risks and expectations of a wider gap in economic performance between the euro zone and the U.S. The U.S. bank--one of the most widely followed in financial markets--now expects to see the euro trading at $1.15 in three and six months' time from $1.35 earlier. In 12 months it expects to see the euro at $1.25, again from $1.35 earlier. "The likelihood of continued policy mishaps remains very high in the near term and as a result the euro will probably remain under pressure," the bank said in a monthly report to clients. At 1143 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.2047, according to EBS.


-By Clare Connaghan and Katie Martin, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0) 20 7842 9496, clare.connaghan@dowjones.com (END)

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文章时间: 2010-6-11 周五, 上午8:06    标题: 引用回复


Ex-Lehman Traders’ Fund Had Best Month by Shorting
(Update1)
By Bei Hu


June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Omnix Multi-Strategy Fund, run by two former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. traders, returned 6 percent in May, when hedge funds globally posted the worst month since 2008, by placing more bearish than bullish bets.

The Asia-Pacific-focused fund’s net-short position, the difference between short and long investments, peaked at 50 percent of its almost $25 million assets under management in May, said Paul Penkett, 39, Omnix’s Hong Kong-based co-founder and chief investment officer. The Eurekahedge Asian Hedge Fund Index is estimated to have dropped 4.2 percent during the month.

Omnix expected
tightening measures in countries like China,
the deepening sovereign debt crisis, and
regulatory changes to reverse last year’s stimulus-fueled market rally
, Penkett said.

“We felt that the Hong Kong and China markets, equities specifically, would do poorly,” he said in an interview yesterday. “The key beneficiaries of Chinese demand would do poorly as well, specifically the commodity-related names and the Australian market.

The Omnix fund outperformed in a month when the debt crisis in Europe reduced the appetite for risky assets, pushing the MSCI World Index down 9.9 percent and hurting bonds. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index dropped an estimated 2.3 percent, the worst monthly return since November 2008 when the collapse of Lehman two months earlier led the gauge down 2.7 percent.

The Omnix fund shifted from a neutral net position to having a net-short position in mid-April, building up shorts after market moves confirmed the manager’s views, Penkett said.

‘Act II’

Hedge funds increased short positions, or betting against Lehman’s stock, in the week leading up to the Wall Street firm filing for bankruptcy in September 2008. Lehman’s shares on loan surged 82 percent to 128 million shares as of Sept. 11, 2008, from 70.9 million shares on Sept. 2, Data Explorers said at the time. Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection on Sept. 15.

The world has just entered “Act II” of a crisis that is “far from over” with Europe’s fiscal woes worsening and governments under pressure to cut budget deficits, billionaire investor George Soros said in Vienna yesterday.
http://www.gaofamily.com/viewtopic.php?p=57859#57859

Hedge funds managed by Paulson & Co., Viking Global Investors LP and Moore Capital Management LLC, among the best long-term investors in the industry, lost money in May.
http://www.gaofamily.com/viewtopic.php?t=11032&start=15

“May serves as a reminder that managers that maintain a nimble and flexible balance sheet can expect to outperform in certain periods of heightened uncertainty,” said Alexander Kalis, a managing partner of London-based Think Alternative Advisors LLP, which provides research and consultancy services on Asian alternative investment products.

Short Positions

At the end of April, the fund was devoting 36 percent of its assets to shorting stocks and bonds in Hong Kong and China, compared with 26 percent of long investments, according to its newsletter that month. Shorting typically involves selling borrowed securities expecting their prices to fall.

Short positions in commodity-related stocks and bonds, such as those of Australian resources companies, represented 24 percent of the fund’s assets in late April. It was also bearish on Japan, a major exporter to China.

It shorted stocks and bonds of financial companies, mostly in Australia, in anticipation that their reduced use of leverage and closer regulatory scrutiny will erode their return on equity, Penkett added. The S&P/ASX 200 Finance Index tracking 39 such stocks ended May down 10 percent.

It bought put options on some indexes and single stocks, believing the market underpriced volatility, or price swings, Penkett said. The fund sold some of the options after market volatility increased in May. A put option gives the owner the right to sell a specific amount of a security by a certain date.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of U.S. stock options better known as the VIX, hit 48.20 on May 21, more than tripling its April 12 low.

Penkett, Cheng

Last month’s best ever gain for the Omnix fund brought its return to 7 percent this year through May. Eurekahedge Asian Hedge Fund Index retreated 1.3 percent in the same period.

The fund ended the month with a 12 percent net long position, after closing some short trades to lock in profit as market volatility picked up and securities prices dropped.

Omnix Capital Ltd., the fund’s management company, was set up in January 2009 by Penkett and Stephen Cheng, 40.

Penkett was until 2008 a Hong Kong-based managing director of Lehman where he led a 15-person team that focused on equity, credit and volatility trading in Asia-Pacific.

Cheng ran UBS AG’s Asia fixed-income research team in Asia- Pacific and led its credit trading team in Asia until 2007. He was a member of Lehman’s Asia equities proprietary trading team before starting Omnix.

“In contrast to previous years, many hedge fund managers are now more mentally prepared for the possibility of severe market turmoil and have adapted their portfolio construction accordingly,” said Kalis.


To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 11, 2010 03:40 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-6-18 周五, 下午3:13    标题: 引用回复


Monsters in the Market


In today’s exchanges, strong programs prey on weak ones, humans are hard to find, and the SEC struggles to keep up.
By Timothy Lavin
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/monsters-in-the-market/8122/





On the third floor of Citigroup’s Manhattan headquarters, at the far end of a trading floor overlooking the Hudson River, Young Kang, Citi’s global head of algorithmic products, leans over a terminal and monitors the progress of a canny and powerful beast named Dagger. Bred and trained in secret by Citi’s financial engineers, Dagger can stalk through more than 20 markets, public and otherwise—hunting for anomalies, buying and selling, prowling through mountains of historical data—all at the behest of Citi’s clients. Amid the trading-floor din, Dagger fulfills its duties in flickering silence, with a speed and acuity no human can match.

“It’s self-learning,” Kang says. “The numbers keep updating, the strategy keeps adjusting itself. It gets smarter.”

And it makes a lot of money. Algorithms like Dagger can exploit the smallest inefficiencies in the market. They can parse trades in millionths of a second. Some species can detect other algos embarking on predictable trading strategies, and ruthlessly adjust their techniques. They’re growing ever more complex, subtle, and sophisticated. And as they become more popular, they’re creating some serious headaches for regulators.

By some estimates, algorithms now trigger 70 percent of all trades in U.S. equities. The speed and volume of everyday trading have propelled the market into a new and esoteric dimension, and rendered traders in the pits largely obsolete. Average daily share volume on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 181 percent between 2005 and 2009, while the time required to execute a trade on its electronic systems dropped to 650 microseconds.

Such changes have a lot of people worried, including the Securities and Exchange Commission. It released a wide-ranging paper earlier this year seeking suggestions on how to restructure the entire equity market, and created a Division of Risk, Strategy, and Financial Innovation in part to help monitor new technologies. A market collapse in early May—in which automated-trading systems exacerbated a sell-off that drove the Dow down more than 900 points in less than an hour, before it quickly recovered—gave two worries new public salience: that the proprietors of these algos may not be in full control of their creations, and that the strategies they pursue are, in some cases, fundamentally warping the financial markets.

In January, the NYSE fined Credit Suisse $150,000 for “failing to adequately supervise the development, deployment, and operation of a proprietary algorithm.” The fine was a pittance, but more troubling was that the bank didn’t even know that its malfunctioning algo (which sent hundreds of thousands of cancel-and-replace requests for orders that hadn’t been made) had crippled some of the NYSE’s trading stations until regulators called them the next day. This spring, a newsletter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago warned: “Although algorithmic trading errors have occurred, we likely have not yet seen the full breadth, magnitude, and speed with which they can be generated. Furthermore, many such errors may be hidden from public view.”

Bernard Donefer, a finance professor at Baruch College and the author of a study in the most recent Journal of Trading called “Algos Gone Wild,” contends that the speed of these equations, and their ability to reach so many markets simultaneously, could turn even a minor coding error into a spiraling disaster. “Another 1987,” he told me, referring to the epic crash caused in part by simpler automated-trading schemes. This view puts Donefer in the minority in the financial community, which tends to have more faith in firms’ internal risk controls. But he thinks that without better regulation, more algo-gone-wild scenarios are inevitable. He notes that while controls at big firms, like Citi, are generally exemplary, second- and third-tier firms present a graver risk.

The SEC wants to hire a lot more staffers, both for its new risk division and for its trading division, and it is considering new methods of tracking algorithmic trades; Donefer and others have suggested a tagging system for the biggest traders, which the SEC says is on the table. The commission also may soon outlaw a practice called “naked access,” in which some broker-dealers offer their clients direct access to exchanges—allowing them to potentially bypass risk controls—in pursuit of faster trading.

A more widespread worry, now getting increased attention from regulators and Congress, is a strategy known as high-frequency trading. Employers of this technique apply algorithms and other automated technology, along with real-time market data, to buy and sell so quickly (in microseconds) and in such quantities (millions of trades a day), that they engorge themselves on penny differentials in prices. These traders argue that they supply the market with needed liquidity and tighter spreads. Regulators tend to agree, for the most part; free markets have always rewarded better information, speed, and creativity. But this technology unloads on such a massive scale, and so quickly, that they fear it could feed a dangerous and self-reinforcing volatility.

At least a few high-frequency traders have learned to make a killing by detecting the more simplistic algo strategies deployed by basic pension funds and mutual funds, buying the next stock the funds plan to buy, and then selling it to them at a higher price. This may not be illegal, but it’s almost certainly unfair to the funds’ investors. “It is increasingly clear that there are quite a number of high-frequency bandits in the high- frequency-trading community who pump up volume statistics, front-run investor orders, increase transaction costs, and hurt real liquidity,” David Weild, an adviser at Grant Thornton and a former vice chairman of Nasdaq, told me. *

These changes in trading technology raise a more fundamental question: If the majority of trades racing back and forth are simply lines of code swapping with other lines of code, moved by indicators obscure to even the mortal authors of the algorithms themselves, what exactly is the financial market? “The market structure’s totally changed, and it’s distorted what we do,” says Joe Saluzzi, the co-head of equities trading at Themis Trading and a vocal opponent of some high-frequency strategies. “The machine thinks for itself.”

Correction: The print version of this article incorrectly stated that David Weild was vice president of NASDAQ. He was vice chairman.

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文章时间: 2010-6-23 周三, 上午6:31    标题: 引用回复


Meredith Whitney said that she is data-driven...



Housing Double-Dip to Slow Economic Recovery: Whitney
Monday, 21 Jun 2010

The US economy faces a perilous second half as a new set of problems hits real estate and thwarts any chance for a strong recovery, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.


While stopping short of predicting a full-blown double dip in the broad economy, Whitney said one is certainly in store for the housing market.

"People doubt there's a double-dip in housing," she said. "It's amazing."

The primary reason she cited for another leg down in housing is that banks are getting more aggressive foreclosing on delinquent borrowers. That in turn will push more inventory into the market, pressuring prices and ensuring that economic growth will be tepid at best.

"Banks are actually accelerating their foreclosure programs, accelerating their short-sale programs. People who have been paying their mortgage now have to start paying rent," Whitney said. "You'll see a real leg down in supply displacement when you foreclose and you have to sell."

Consumer behavior has exhibited traits Whitney said she's never seen before.

Primary among the anomalies has been the trend of homeowners not paying their mortgages and instead paying down other bills and increasing their personal spending.

Elsewhere, problems from state and local governments also will weigh on the national economy, particularly in the way that they are "cutting jobs in a material way for the first time on record."

"They're squeezed from all sides and there's really nowhere to turn," she said.

Whitney also said financial regulation reform and policy-making that is not friendly to the middle class will hurt growth.

"The populist incumbents argue that we've got to get money to redistribute wealth," she said. "This squeezes the middle class further down the food chain. The unintended consequences of this are maddening."

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文章时间: 2010-7-02 周五, 下午1:28    标题: 引用回复


S&P Cuts '500' Target, Says Bear Market Looms

CNBC: Thursday, 1 Jul 2010 | 12:02 PM ET


Standard & Poor's has cut the target price for its broad 500-stock index and is recommending that investors reduce their exposure to US stocks as a possible bear market develops.

In a note to clients, the firm has reduced its full-year target price for the S&P 500 [.SPX 1020.63 -6.74 (-0.66%) ] from 1270 to 1190, a cut of 6.2 percent though still a healthy 17 percent bounce from current levels.

S&P said investors should reduce their exposure to US equities from 45 percent to 40 percent and increase bond allocation to 30 percent from 25 percent. The company is owned by McGraw-Hill [MHP 27.77 -0.36 (-1.28%) ].

"High volatility, caused by global growth concerns and sovereign debt worries, increase the range of investment outcomes, in our view, and merits a larger-than-average fixed income allocation," the note said.

A stock market rally likely won't happen until autumn, but a bear market could occur in the meantime, with little support for the S&P until it reaches 950, with a possible fall as far as 883, the firm said.

A bear market is a 20 percent drop from the recent high, which would take the S&P to about the 975 level. The market is currently in correction mode, which is a 10 percent drop.

"Major chart support for the major indices is giving way, suggesting to us that this correction may morph into a bear market," the note said.

"We think the market is likely to remain weak into the fall months, with a potential bottom in September or October," the firm said, but later added, "We then see a strong rally during the last two to three months of the year."

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文章时间: 2010-7-03 周六, 上午11:48    标题: 引用回复

July 2, 2010, 10:13 a.m. EDT
Where's a hedge fund to go?
Commentary: Bonus taxes, financial reform state battles cloud picture


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's not an easy time to be running a hedge fund.

Not only do the markets stink, everyone it seems is thinking up new ways to tax these purveyors of sophisticated finance. New York is considering a new tax. Congress is thinking up new levies, and now the European Parliament is considering new bonus rules for the industry, according to FINalternatives. See FINalternatives story on EP plan.

Under the plan, cash would not be king. It could only represent 30% of a "regular" bonus and one-fifth of a "large" bonus. A new regulator will decide which is which. And then there's this: a three-year deferment period for 40% of those payouts.

The move in Europe comes after efforts in the U.S. market to squeeze hedge fund profits. Taxes on carried interest and enterprise value -- when a fund's owners decide to sell -- are being considered in Congress.

In New York, Gov. David Patterson is considering a tax on out-of-state hedge fund managers who work in New York but live out of state. Mayor Michael Bloomberg has criticized the move and Connecticut lawmakers have used the issue as an appeal to lure more hedge funds to the Constitution State. Read WSJ story on NY hedge fund tax plan.

Hedge funds did receive at least one reprieve in recent days. The plan to tax banks and the fund industry to pay for the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill was scrapped. That news came as a bit of relief to Todd Groome, chairman of the Alternative Investment Management Association who said in a statement Monday his industry shouldn't be singled out. "Hedge funds had nothing to do with the cause of the crisis."

That's a matter of debate. What isn't is the fact hedge fund professionals are having a financial crisis of their own right now -- one that may hurt their pocketbooks.

-- David Weidner

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文章时间: 2010-8-06 周五, 上午11:24    标题: 引用回复


The smart money is staying on the sidelines when it comes to putting their money back in American assets.




Why Winning Hedge Funds Are Wary
Investors who dodged the crisis are uncertain about what's ahead

BusinessWeek, Money Managers, August 5, 2010


The promise of hedge funds is that they have the freedom to move quickly in and out of different assets, and to bet prices will go down as well as up. That flexibility allows them to make money in any kind of market. In the turbulent conditions since 2007, however, few have delivered consistent profits.

Of 2,799 hedge funds studied by PerTrac Financial Solutions, a New York investment-software company, only 321 (11.5%) were agile enough to post gains every year since 2007 and in the first part of this year. Among the best performers: Perella Weinberg Partners Xerion, managed by Daniel J. Arbess, up a total of 95 percent from January 2007 through May; Waterstone, up 84 percent through June; and Banyan Capital, up 56 percent through June.

Notably absent from the consistent winners list: managers with top long-term returns, such as Steven A. Cohen, Louis M. Bacon, and Kenneth C. Griffin, who each posted their worst losses ever in 2008. Then there are the almost 3,300 hedge funds that have shut down since the start of 2007. As a group, hedge funds gained an average 10 percent for investors in 2007 and lost a record 19 percent in 2008 before rebounding 20 percent last year, according to Hedge Fund Research. The industry has lost 0.21 percent this year through June.

The winners made money through a combination of prescient investment calls, executing smaller trades with shorter time durations, which enabled them to get out of unprofitable positions sooner, and raising cash before markets slumped in 2008. Arbess, who manages $2.1 billion at Xerion, started shorting collateralized-debt obligations (CDO) tied to subprime mortgages at the end of 2006. David Gerstenhaber of Argonaut Macro Partnership, profitable every year since its launch in 2000, bet in the middle of 2008 that European interest rates would fall and in September of that year shorted the euro.

What do these managers see ahead? In interviews and investor letters, they say they expect the U.S. and European economies to slow. Gerstenhaber, 49, plans to bet against industries that do poorly when the economy loses steam, such as materials, energy, and homebuilding. He and Arbess favor investments tied to emerging markets.

Shawn Bergerson, founder of Waterstone Capital Management, says he's betting against consumer-related stocks because he sees Americans curtailing spending and reducing debt amid high unemployment. "While I'm not expecting a major economic crisis or a disaster, the consumer is in a weak position," says Bergerson, 45, who oversees $1.17 billion from his office in Plymouth, Minn.

With the outlook so unclear, the $1.65 trillion hedge fund industry is taking less risk, using less debt, and making fewer trades, according to data from securities exchanges and brokers including Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Chase. Laurence Benedict, founder of $804 million Banyan Capital in Boca Raton, Fla., says he has reduced the size of his trades to about a third of what they usually are, and to the lowest since October 2008, because of uncertainty over the economy. "It's difficult to get conviction in this environment," says Benedict, 48, who holds trades for no longer than five days. "There will be more clarity by the third quarter following the release of economic indicators."

The bottom line: Even some hedge fund managers who have proven their ability to anticipate trends lack conviction about the economic outlook.


http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_33/b4191043699550.htm
Kishan is a reporter for Bloomberg News.

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文章时间: 2010-8-06 周五, 下午9:35    标题: 引用回复

Meredith Whitney:美国房地产双底衰退将妨碍经济复苏
2010年06月21日


  华尔街知名银行业分析师梅里迪斯-惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)周一表示,因一些新的问题冲击房地产行业并破坏经济强劲复苏的机会,美国经济下半年将危险重重。

  虽然惠特尼并没有预计广义经济将会出现全面的双底衰退,但她表示住房市场将进入双底衰退是可以肯定的。“人们不相信住房市场会出现双底衰退”,她称,“这很令人诧异”。

  她认为住房市场将再次衰退的主要原因是,银行对于欠款的贷款人将采取更严厉的违约对策。这反过来将让市场出现更多住房库存,令房价承压并保证经济至多以温和的速度增长。

  “事实上银行正在加快它们的违约程序,加速它们的亏损出售项目。过去一直支付抵押的人们现在不得不开始支付房租”,惠特尼表示,“当你违约并不得不出售房子时,住房供应不会减少。”

  惠特尼称消费者行为显示出其从未见过的特征。异常行为主要表现为消费者趋向于不支付他们的抵押,而用现金支付其他费用并增加个人开支。

  其他方面,国家和地方政府的问题也将令国家经济承压,尤其是它们正在“首次创纪录地一再减少工作职位”。她表示,“它们被各方挤压,也无计可施”。

  惠特尼还表示,对中产阶级不太有利的金融监管改革和政策制定将伤及经济增长,“对中产阶级的挤压进一步打压了食物链,所导致的意外后果是令人恼怒的”。

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文章时间: 2010-8-06 周五, 下午9:46    标题: 引用回复

Goldman Sachs:下调美国2011年经济增长速度预期
2010年08月06日


  高盛集团经济学家周五下调了对2011年美国经济增长速度的预期,并表示美联储对高失业率的回应将是“又一轮非传统的货币宽松措施”,其中包括收购更多资产等。

  以Jan HatziusEd McKelvey为首的高盛集团经济学家称,他们仍旧认为,今年下半年美国实际GDP的平均年率增长速度将为1.5%;但经济学家同时预计称,到明年年底为止,经济增长速度将(比此前预期的)更加缓慢。根据他们的预测,2011年美国经济的平均年率增长速度很可能为1.9%,不及此前预期的2.5%,主要由于美国国会拒绝扩大经济刺激性措施。

  根据高盛集团经济学家的预测,美联储将在下周召开的货币政策制定会议上宣布继续实施非传统性货币宽松措施的“最初步骤”

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