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2010 财经述评:美股,汇市(美元/欧元/日元),与新兴市场
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性别:性别:男
年龄:99
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加入时间: 2009/11/10
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文章时间: 2011-5-12 周四, 下午1:20    标题: 引用回复


俄罗斯零售外汇行业政策现状

2011-04-29

和白雪皑皑的西伯利亚林海深处一样,俄罗斯的外汇零售行业政策一度少为国人知。今天和你一起分享其中的事实。

俄罗斯的零售外汇行业已经成为新兴力量。比如,软件提供商–迈达克公司Metaquotes Corporation,已成为全球交易软件的领头羊,而福瑞斯ForexClub也是接受美国严苛监管的海外知名经纪商。不过,在俄罗斯这片全球最大的国土上,有俄罗斯政府力量的介入吗?

事实上,在俄罗斯,也有着政府监管落后于金融创新的尴尬。美国如此,瑞士如此,以色列如此,俄罗斯也如此。所不同的是,美国在2000年和2008 年两次强化了行业监管;瑞士自2009年起把零售外汇纳入FINMA监管之下;而以色列刚刚通过了立法,由以色列证券委员会强制降低杠杆,启用隔离账户等保护投资者利益。

而在广袤的俄罗斯大地,政府监管还是没有覆盖到。虽然俄罗斯拥有众多的外汇交易者和杰出的EA程序员,有着发达的互联网科技基础,但对于网络交易,显然俄罗斯政府还没有充足的准备。

每隔数月,俄罗斯的政府机关–金融服务管理局(FSFM)就会发出声明,强调它不是外汇经纪商的官方监管机构。外汇通在此特别提醒交易者的是,虽然一些俄罗斯外汇经纪商声称它们拥有FSFM的营销工作许可证,但这不意味FSFM就是俄罗斯外汇经纪商的政府监管部门。

俄罗斯的零售行业自律组织名叫KROUFR,与美国的国家期货协业(NFA)有些许的类似。它的网址是 http://www.kroufr.ru/eng,不过,论起行业地位,KROUFR还是相当地稚嫩:

其一、在数十家俄罗斯外汇经纪商公司中,只有七家经纪商参与。

其二、美国国家期货协会具有强制加入的政策,只要是美国境内的外汇经纪商,必须强制注册,统一管理。在俄罗斯,KROUFR还是一家来去自由的地儿,这个组织主要起到行业协商的作用,有”经纪商沙龙”的味道。

目前,各国都在强化本国监管,俄罗斯政府如果在此时跟进,监管本国的外汇零售行业,或许就是行业福音。对经纪商而言,它们拥有了真正的机遇,获得了公平的监管环境。对俄罗斯政府而言,也可以获得相应的纳税收入。

正因为俄罗斯政府监管的缺失,所以一些知名的俄罗斯经纪商特意远渡重洋,去美国和英国等地,接受相应的监管,从而在外汇行业中,赢得自己的声名。

文章转自外汇通:(http://broker.forex.com.cn)

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文章时间: 2011-5-12 周四, 下午3:39    标题: 引用回复


温州人为什么爱炒汇

2006-11-10 12:45:16


对温州汇市交易量居全国第三的解剖


  都说温州人是天生的生意人,其与生俱来的重商基因加上后天浓郁创业文化的熏陶,造就了他们独特的商业观:不放过任何赚钱机会。如今,在不断升温的外汇交易市场,这种气质挥洒得淋漓尽致。去年1~11月,温州市外汇交易量达到270亿美元,这一规模仅次于北京、上海,位居全国第三,由此撑起了浙江省 2/3的外汇交易量。

  一个小小的温州,凭什么坐上“全国第三”的交椅?其庞大的交易量背后,都是哪些身影在活跃?他们缘何那么热衷于炒汇?
  
  温州人爱让外汇钱生钱
  
  2004年12月28日,一股强冷空气掺杂着细雨气势汹汹地长驱直下。这种突变的感觉,很像短时间内变换不定的外汇行情,向温州的很多汇民袭去,但他们并未因此改变生活节奏。

  上午10点多,温州市区小南路交通银行温州支行二楼外汇交易中心二楼,50多岁的黄大强早已静静地坐在外汇交易大厅坐椅第一排,双眼紧盯行情大屏幕。红色的数字又令人欣喜地跳了一下,澳元兑美元的报价分明显示着:0.7761。这时,黄大强的嘴角露出了一丝不易察觉的微笑。半个月来,20万美元一进一出,超过3000美元的利润已经到手。

  黄大强自称是个全职炒汇者,炒汇有5个年头了。5年前,身边一些邻居亲戚在捣鼓着外汇宝,刚好在法国做生意的儿子会定期给他存点外汇,但利息很低,于是,退休后的他就一门心思玩起了这玩意儿。

  一般早上9点多来到这里蹲点,中饭在这里叫个外卖解决,平时行情波动不大时和汇友们聊聊天、交流行情;当初仅凭直觉的他已学会了看图形分析……这么些年下来,其间有赚也有亏,黄大强显然已经非常习惯了这一切,整天泡在外汇交易大厅里的他和很多温州汇民有同样的感觉,外汇买卖成了生活不可缺少的一部分。

  外面寒风凛冽,外汇交易大厅内却温暖如春。无论是在温州市区无人不晓的温州市区小南路,还是瑞安的几个外汇交易网点,类似的场景处处可见。而这些,其实只是温州外汇交易市场的缩影,他们在很大程度上折射出当地市民不断激起的汇市情结。

  这个热情最早始于1998年,中国银行温州支行开出首家外汇宝业务,当时,外汇交易对于很多温州人来说既陌生又新鲜。“很多市民的感觉是外国的彩票,搏大搏小。”黄大强事后回忆说。但经过一两年的培育,尤其是从2001年开始,随着工商、交通、广发等七家商业银行纷纷跟进,竞争推出的各种外汇业务撩得很多市民心痒痒的,先是有外汇存款的侨民,接着带动一批批普通市民涌入到这股外汇买卖潮中。
  
  汇民是一个有意思的群体
  
  在与交通银行一街之隔的中行温州分行松台支行,记者与一位人称“林老师”的炒汇高手林强中攀谈起来。今年50岁出头的他,自从1998年中国银行温州支行开设外汇交易业务以来,身影没有离开过外汇市场。现在,两个儿子,一个兄弟,外加妻子全家五口的汇市沉浮,令他在松台支行名声不小。

  每天,林强中喜欢独自坐在外汇交易大厅里,双眼紧盯屏幕一言不发,兴致来时偶尔也会和其他人谈论一下行情。与他每日“孵”在大厅不同的是,林强中的儿子则更热衷于躲进旁边为交易大户特设的小间里,一台电脑,两台自助机,手里的70万美元不停地在翻腾搏击。而当林氏父子每天在银行“上班”时,林强中的妻子同样在通过电脑和电话不间断地关注着行情。

  炒汇是24小时的事,林强中告诉记者,尽管晚上银行关门他和儿子得回家,但是家里的电脑却从不关,“有时候半夜都得爬起来看好几次。”

  炒汇成为一种职业,在温州,像林强中这样的全职外汇炒家并不在少数,而这只是温州庞大汇民的一部分。

  温州到底有多少汇民?“目前还没一个统一的数据统计,但可以肯定的是,这个数至少上万,而且还在壮大。”据中行温州分行一位从事外汇多年的管理人员介绍,和北京上海等地外汇交易以机构投资者为主不同,温州外汇交易以业余的“散户”居多。

  涉及各个层次、各个年龄段,温州汇民是一个很有意思的群体。除了像林强中这样只占小部分的“职业炒家”外,温州的很多外贸企业老板,手头有大量的外汇资金,也比较推崇在外汇市场寻求资金增值;平时有固定工作又有余钱的市民,也会利用空余时间炒一下;另外,在瑞安、文成等侨乡的很多大妈大伯,手头有大量的外汇,也是交易大厅的积极分子;还有一些退休工人,外汇则权当业余的消遣。
  
  一人一年炒出2亿交易量
  
  家住温州五马街的汪先生是一家外贸公司的老板,他的另一个身份则是曾经非常活跃的汇民。2001年,赶着当时兴起的外汇潮,手头掌握大笔外汇的他便纵身跳了下去,专做美元兑欧元。

  特意在家里辟出一间房间,两台电脑分别与国内、国际市场同步报价,还有电话机、传真机,几乎一天到晚闷在屋子里盯着行情表。“那时可真叫疯狂,够刺激。”回想起辉煌的过去,汪先生掩饰不住那种激动。结果一年下来,20万美元炒出了2亿美元的交易量,平均下来一天要交易四次。”

  从时间上看,外汇交易分三种:短线一般指当天买进卖出,中线指十天半个月才做一次交易,而长线则指一到三个月甚至更长。在汪先生现在看来,真正高手做的是长线。不过,大多数温州汇民显然还没领悟到这点。超短线买卖,习惯在短线上频繁交易,这是温州人外汇交易的一个特点。

  记者在外汇管理局温州市中心支局看到这么一份报告,其中提到2002年全市单户一天最多交易15次,交易额达2000万美元,当日最多交易笔数是 750笔。在温州最大的外汇交易中心瑞安,这个现象更加明显。据介绍,目前瑞安市外币存款近1.5亿美元,真正参与外汇交易的资金约占20%,也就是说,区区3000万美元在汇市变幻出20亿美元的交易量。

  频繁的交易买卖,在极大程度上促成了温州蔚为壮观的个人外汇交易量。
  
  温资游走在世界汇市里
  
  和温州四处出击的民资一样,温州人炒汇并不局限在温州范围内,而是转战全国各地甚至国外,到处游弋。
  从1999年开始入市,陈爱明也是个老汇民了。中行温州分行是他在温州炒汇的大本营,不过这并没有束缚他的四处出击行动。“有银行新开业,为了吸引汇民点差极低,有时甚至是零,这时我们就过去。”
  点差即银行根据市场汇率自己制定买入价和卖出价时的其间差,通俗说即银行的手续费。对汇民来说,汇率全球统一,点差高低直接决定了交易成本的多少,异常敏感的温州汇民当然不会放过这个信号。
  和北京、上海等地商业银行点差30点明显不同,温州各银行的点差相当低,目前各银行挂牌的外汇交易点差基本为16点,而大户获得的点差更低,一般只有 10点。“点差的大小直接决定了对炒汇者的吸引力,这是竞争激烈的结果。”交通银行温州支行外汇管理处一管理人员说,为了争夺市场,温州当地一家银行曾经在开业当天开出过2个点的点差。
  “哪里点差低就往哪。”据陈爱明透露,前两年,广州、大连那边一些银行刚开办外汇业务,闻着点差低的消息,很多温州人就揣现金直接坐飞机过去,赚到钱就马上回来,他也是其中一员。不过现在的手段就更加高明了,借助国外亲戚的帮助,陈爱明有部分资金长年在国外,“美国的点差只有4,相比之下,那里赚钱更容易。”
  
  温州交易量全国第三
  
  其实,交易大厅现场交易只是外汇交易的一部分,更多的汇民通过网上银行交易。火爆的汇市场面,背后是庞大的外汇交易量。

  “估计2004年可以突破300亿美元。”国家外汇管理局温州市中心支局国际收支处副处长宋征威这么分析。这个判断显然是有充分的依据。2003年,温州市的外汇交易量已达290亿美元,去年1~11月,这个量已达270亿美元,这一规模连续三年仅次于上海、北京这两个大城市,居全国第三。

  “这一方面和温州是侨乡、外汇资金比较充裕有很大关系。”宋征威分析,温州有40多万华侨,大部分集中在欧元区,以前主要炒美元,自欧元诞生那一年起温州人就开始做欧元了。每年有大量的外汇流入温州,其中大部分资金就用作外汇交易。如2002年温州市个人外汇存款余额已达15.8亿美元,2004年上半年,这个数已达14.38亿美元。

  同时,近年来外汇行情好转尤其是欧元走势强劲、对美元汇率飙升,也在牵动着温州汇民那根投资增值神经,激发着温州人的炒汇热情。据中行温州市松台支行一位管理人员介绍,在欧元汇率一路上扬的去年11月份,仅该支行的个人外汇交易量就比去年10月份增加了25~30%,有几天甚至是成倍增长,最多一天的交易量就有1000多万美元。“只要两个币种的汇率有变化,对汇民来说都是行情,尝到甜头的汇民也就有盼头。”
  
  
  让钱流动比不动好
  
  温州人实在是一个有趣的群体,他们总能频频“制造”一些独特现象,炒汇就是一个典型的例子。

  五六十岁的大妈大伯,很多没有多少文化,有些甚至连字也认不了几个,却能盯住报价屏、拿出计算器啪啪地算;单笔最大交易成百上千万美元,最小50美元;可以抛开家务不顾,一家人全部出动,把宝押在那些随时跳动的数字上……在温州采访的两天内,在五六个银行的外汇交易大厅,记者目睹了诸多令外人看来不可思议的场景。

  很多人根本未曾想到的操作方式,温州人就敢尝试,并做得甚欢。温州人也并非百战不殆,在形形色色的数据前,也有翻跟头的时候,但他们仍然执着,因为 “炒汇和做生意一样,肯定有赚有赔。”至于为什么迷恋炒汇,温州人说得最多的是“让钱动起来总比放着不动好”、“买来买去都是钞票,实实在在的,亏也亏不到哪里去”……也许,正是这些朴素的经济理论,衍生了温州汇市的今天。

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性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-6-04 周六, 下午7:41    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 2011-4-28 周四, 上午11:46 写道:

昨日大本一声呛,美股天下无熊了? Laughing
The error of pessimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to
an error of optimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant...

Russell2000今天触及历史最高点860.37,短期双顶兼长期双顶,有减仓必要。。。

纯属误会 2011-4-20 周三, 下午9:33 写道:

我的第六感告诉说,四月底到五月初之间,美元会开始一个出乎大多数人意料的历时不短的大反弹,
直接的后果,就是美股将要回撤一阵子。sell in May and go away,今年很可能成真。 Cool


道指周线5连黑 近7年首见
苹果日报|2011-06-04

美国5月失业率意外创今年新高,加深经济复甦疑虑,道琼工业指数上周五重挫97.29点,全周大跌290.32点或2.3%,近5周在经济数
据严重不如预期下连续收黑,创近7年最长连跌纪录。


不过,有「债券天王」之称的太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)经理人葛洛斯(Bill Gross)表示,经济虽不理想,但联邦准备理事会
(Federal Reserve,Fed)最多只会延后退出现行量化宽鬆政策(Quantitative Easing),不太可能续推QE3。

消费、房市指标大减

美国劳工部上周五公布5月就业报告,不仅失业率意外由4月的9.0%走扬,各项新增就业人口数据更是多月来最差,包括非农业新增就业
人数创8月新低,不到经济学家预估的1/3,民间新增就业人数创1年新低,不到预估值一半,製造业新增就业人数更是7个月来首度减少。

另外,包括5月ISM製造业指数由前月60.4,骤降至20个月新低53.5,濒临象徵製造业景气转折的临界值50,5月消费信心也降至半
年低点,4月新屋开工、建照许可等房市指标均意外锐减。

科技类股跌幅较大

纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)资深策略分析师伍尔弗克说:「5月就业报告为复甦后继无力又一例证,走疲本身没那麽让人意外,吓人的
是范围太广
,从房地产、就业、製造到消费都展露疲态。」

就业数据加深美国经济复甦疑虑,美股4大指数上周五齐跌,道琼30档成分股有28档走跌,S&P 500指数10大类股全面下挫,科技股午盘后加入杀盘行列,更造成纳斯达克、费城半导体指数跌幅扩大至1%以上。Loomis Sayles & Co.基金经理人苏沃比说:「这几周走势再度提醒投资人,美股不会一路上涨,本周经济数据又不及格,和先前数据串联在一起,足以印证当前仍充满不确定性。」

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文章时间: 2011-6-06 周一, 上午11:13    标题: 引用回复

QE2吹起的一个大泡沫
2011年05月25日


这项政策花了纳税人6,000亿美元。这项政策原本是用于拯救经济的,但贝南克推出的被称作“第二轮量化宽松”(QE2)的规模庞大的财政刺激方案的效果是否真的有如预期?

还有几周QE2就要正式结束。美联储主席贝南克说这项政策已经让经济走上正轨。

但有关真实数据的分析却道出了完全不同的故事。

事实证明,QE2或许创造了70万个全职工作机会,相当于每个职位的成本约85万美元。

房价比QE2推出之前的水平低,经济增速放缓,通胀走高。

是的,QE2造就了股市的巨大繁荣。普通投资者又开始大举涌入股市。上周我们目睹了华尔街勃勃生机回归的最新例证:互联网新秀LinkedIn上市首日股价暴涨。

但即使是股市也并非像看上去的那么繁荣。一项分析表明,受QE2影响而大幅上涨的标普500指数其大部分涨幅其实是作为美股计价币种的美元贬值造成的。

所以真相是,QE2给美元计价的金融资产催生了一个巨大的新泡沫。从美股到黄金均是如此。与此同时,其对实体经济并未产生明显效果。

看看就业数据。据美国劳工部(U.S. Labor Department)透露,自去年8月至今全职工人数量仅仅增加了70万人,从1.118亿上升至1.125亿。

按6,000亿美元的代价计算,创造就业的平均成本高达85万美元。

与此同时,兼职工人的数量下降了60万人。换句话说,我们只不过将60万或70万兼职工人转变成了全职工人。这么看净增的就业量少得可怜。

如今就业人口占总人口的比例为58.4%,低于去年8月58.5%的水平。全部劳动力中,实际在工作的人口比例(即劳动参与率)下降了半个百分点。

一些复苏的迹象

房价倒是跌了不少。据美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)透露,去年8月QE2开始前成屋均价为17.73万美元。

而如今均价为16.37万美元,跌幅为8%。

但经济增速已经放缓。去年夏天增长率为2.6%,但现在只有可怜的1.8%。

与此同时通胀率却上升,从QE2开始前的1.2%上升至现在的3.1%。

好吧,或许没有QE2经济的表现会更差。但以上数据却戳穿了一个谎言,即这些经济政策的执行效果和宣传的一样好。经济学家对未来的前景感到越来越失望。上周五零售商Gap成了经济萧条的最新指标,其业绩足以告诫市场:销售依然疲软,成本却在上升。

与此同时QE2却给所有以美元计价的资产催生了一个完全人造的泡沫

看看股市。自去年8月27日贝南克在怀俄明州的杰克逊城(Jackson Hole)宣布他的QE2计划以来,标普500指数累计上涨了26%。

到目前为止,一切都很好,是吧?但这只是一个幻象。真正的情况是美股的计价货币美元的价值正在下跌。

若以硬通货衡量,当前股市就远没有这么繁荣了。以瑞士法郎计价,去年8月27日至今标普500指数仅仅上升了8.4%。若以瑞典克朗和澳元计算,升幅就更小了。若以黄金计价,标普500指数仅上升了4.5%。

与此同时,繁荣的假象却导致各类投资者承担种种高风险。只要看看LinkedIn的IPO盛况你就知道了。奥地利经济学派的经济学家说这是回到金本位制的一个理由。这很自然地让你想知道下一步走势会如何?

BRETT ARENDS

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文章时间: 2011-6-11 周六, 下午12:04    标题: 引用回复


美股大跌 道指创2002年来最长连跌

凤凰网|2011-06-10


对全球经济复苏的担忧周五推动道琼斯指数自3月中旬来首次跌破12000点,连续六周下跌,创2002年以来最长连跌行情。

道琼斯指数收盘跌172.45点,至11951.91点,跌幅1.42%。

标准普尔500指数下跌18.02点,至1270.98点,跌幅1.40%。该指数也已经连续六周下跌,创下2008年以来的最长连跌行情。

纳斯达克综合指数收盘跌41.14点,至2643.73点,跌幅1.53%。罗素2000小型股指数下跌13.10点,至779.54点,跌幅1.65%。
这两大指数均已跌至去年收盘点位下方。

此前公布的数据显示,美国5月份进口价格意外上涨0.2%,暗示推动美国物价上涨的一小部分动力源自国外。该数据打击了投资者人气。
海外市场方面,对欧元区债务问题的担忧推动欧洲股市走低,此外韩国央行(Bank of Korea)意外加息也令亚洲股市承压。

此前一系列表现疲软的美国经济数据和对全球经济增长放缓的悲观预期已拖累主要股市走低。

全球曼氏金融(MF Global)的高级副总裁John Brady,市场愈加认为本轮经济放缓并不是暂时的。

能源类股领跌,因有关沙特阿拉伯将上调原油产量的报导推动原油价格大幅跌至每桶99美元附近。


纯属误会 写道:
纯属误会 2011-4-28 周四, 上午11:46 写道:

昨日大本一声呛,美股天下无熊了? Laughing
The error of pessimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to
an error of optimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant...

Russell2000今天触及历史最高点860.37,短期双顶兼长期双顶,有减仓必要。。。

纯属误会 2011-4-20 周三, 下午9:33 写道:

我的第六感告诉说,四月底到五月初之间,美元会开始一个出乎大多数人意料的历时不短的大反弹,
直接的后果,就是美股将要回撤一阵子。sell in May and go away,今年很可能成真。 Cool


道指周线5连黑 近7年首见
苹果日报|2011-06-04

美国5月失业率意外创今年新高,加深经济复甦疑虑,道琼工业指数上周五重挫97.29点,全周大跌290.32点或2.3%,近5周在经济数
据严重不如预期下连续收黑,创近7年最长连跌纪录。


不过,有「债券天王」之称的太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)经理人葛洛斯(Bill Gross)表示,经济虽不理想,但联邦准备理事会
(Federal Reserve,Fed)最多只会延后退出现行量化宽鬆政策(Quantitative Easing),不太可能续推QE3。

消费、房市指标大减

美国劳工部上周五公布5月就业报告,不仅失业率意外由4月的9.0%走扬,各项新增就业人口数据更是多月来最差,包括非农业新增就业
人数创8月新低,不到经济学家预估的1/3,民间新增就业人数创1年新低,不到预估值一半,製造业新增就业人数更是7个月来首度减少。

另外,包括5月ISM製造业指数由前月60.4,骤降至20个月新低53.5,濒临象徵製造业景气转折的临界值50,5月消费信心也降至半
年低点,4月新屋开工、建照许可等房市指标均意外锐减。

科技类股跌幅较大

纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)资深策略分析师伍尔弗克说:「5月就业报告为复甦后继无力又一例证,走疲本身没那麽让人意外,吓人的
是范围太广
,从房地产、就业、製造到消费都展露疲态。」

就业数据加深美国经济复甦疑虑,美股4大指数上周五齐跌,道琼30档成分股有28档走跌,S&P 500指数10大类股全面下挫,科技股午盘后加入杀盘行列,更造成纳斯达克、费城半导体指数跌幅扩大至1%以上。Loomis Sayles & Co.基金经理人苏沃比说:「这几周走势再度提醒投资人,美股不会一路上涨,本周经济数据又不及格,和先前数据串联在一起,足以印证当前仍充满不确定性。」

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文章时间: 2011-6-12 周日, 下午12:27    标题: 引用回复


Equity options put/call ratio hits 18-month high

Reuters, Thu Jun 9 2011


NEW YORK: The daily volume put/call ratio for equity options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) hit an 18-month high on Wednesday, June 8 indicating that investors are significantly bearish on the stock market.

At 0.99, which is equivalent to 99 puts traded for every 100 calls, the ratio is the highest single day close since Jan 15, 2009, the CBOE website showed on Thursday.

The ratio was near 0.55 on average earlier this year before spiking above 0.70 since mid-May.

In general, the put/call ratio moves inversely to the performance of equities. When investors are bearish and speculation in puts gets excessive, the ratio will be high.

"The fact that it's not even near (options) expiration and we are getting this kind of sudden move is pretty significant," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research at Austin Texas.

"I have been expecting a real soft patch in the market from the beginning of May until at least July, and if you look back at what the market did in late January and in February of 2009, this might be signaling more downside. He added that he has been suggesting his clients to roll their positions out until August.

U.S. stocks extended losses for the sixth straight day on Wednesday on worries a slowing economy could deepen the market's retreat. Wall Street bounced back on Thursday, with major indexes rising 1 percent, but the mood remained fragile.

Most equity options volume is traded by retail investors who bet on the upward or downward direction of the market, while index options are used more by institutions for hedges and other investment strategies.

"Individual investors continue to abandon the market at a rapid clip," said Jason Goepfert, president of sentimenTrader.com in a report.

"The latest evidence comes from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), whose survey shows only 24 percent of respondents expecting a higher stock market over the next six months," he said.

GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY

Some analysts view the high put/call ratio as being a good opportunity to buy stocks.

"A lot of fear came into the market as investors bought puts," said Jay Shartsis, director of options trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co in New York.

"(But) The high ratio identifies a good buy level for stocks. When a ratio turns this high, from a contrarian view, the risk reward factor is now significantly skewed to the buyside," said Jay Shartsis, director of options trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co in New York.

The Dow .DJI, which on May 2nd gained 10.6 percent for the year when it hit its 2011 closing high, is now up just 5.1 percent.

The S&P 500 .SPX, which had climbed as much as 8.2 percent for the year on the same day, is now up just 2.7 percent. And the Nasdaq .IXIC, which rose 8 percent for the year on May 2nd, is now up only 1.5 percent.

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文章时间: 2011-6-14 周二, 下午12:41    标题: 引用回复


道指和标普500指数连续第六周收跌, 还会连跌第七周吗?

2011-06-11


美国股市周五大幅收跌,道指和标普500指数连续第六周收跌,进一步迹象显示全球经济成长放缓,为市场进一步走低铺路.

市场低迷走势加剧令标普500指数下周跌穿年内低位1250点的可能性增加,该指数本周录得2010年8月以来最大单周跌幅.

Nasdaq指数今日尽数回吐年内涨幅,也录得2010年8月以来最大单周跌幅,对中国成长放缓的担忧以及对希腊债务危机的不安再度抬头,
今日令市场人气恶化.

道指收在12,000点之下,为今年3月中以来首见.

期权交易商关注CBOE波动性指数收涨6.1%,报18.86,这反应市场的利空人气.该指数走势与标普指数走势相反.

"我们跌至4月低位之下,今日开盘时标普500指数位于1,295点附近.如果下周公布的数据仍然疲弱,市场可能测试3月低位,"旧金山
Wedbush Morgan的董事总经理Stephen Massocca表示.

"但投资者对任何消息都持非常怀疑的态度,因此市场严重超卖,一旦有任何好消息出炉,市场马上会反弹."

本周,道指收挫1.6%,标普500指数收跌2.2%,Nasdaq指数回落3.3%.

标普500指数从上月触及的日内高位累积回落了约6.6%.许多人士预计该指数将跌回其3月低位约1,250点,在该水准的估值将可能吸引投
资者重返股市.

银行股跌幅居前.美国联邦储备理事会(FED)称计划扩大参加压力测试的银行的范围.

KBW地区银行指数回落1.1%.

"这是一个负增量,令投资者更容易持负面观点,且在目前卖出所有金融股,"洛杉矶Wedbush Morgan的高级交易员Michael James称.

"银行股一直是大盘的一个拖累,且年内一直表现较弱,因此银行股最可能的走向是进一步走低."

标普能源股指数收跌1.9%,标普工业指数回落1.6%.不包括春节,中国对美国和欧盟的出口跌至2009年底以来最低,凸显全球经济成长放
缓的观点.


另一个对股市不利的因素是,欧元兑美元下挫逾1%,因对希腊债务问题的担忧再度成为市场焦点,且投资者削减对欧洲央行升息的预期.投资者
近期根据股市和美元的联动关系进行交易.

PHLX半导体指数回落1.7%,跌至12月初以来最低.SOX自去年10月以来首次跌至200日移动均线之下.

(完)

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文章时间: 2011-6-14 周二, 下午1:12    标题: 引用回复


美股评论:如果跌破两百天移动平均线(200-day moving average)

2011年06月13日


  导读:目前,美股已经迫近两百天移动平均线,这使得很多人感到忧虑。然而,投资通讯专家、MarketWatch专栏作家赫伯特
(Mark Hulbert)却指出,200天移动平均线作为股市的前瞻性指标或者随势操作工具的能力已被大大削弱,早不能和二十年前同日而语。

  以下即赫伯特的评论文章全文:


  5月下旬,股市的水位就已经跌到了五十天移动平均线之下,而现在,只要再有那么一两个下跌交易日,两百天移动平均线也将不保。

  和大多数时候一样,这一问题的最终答案,也不是我们希望看到的那么简单。基于两百天移动平均线的随势操作系统,尽管其长期表
现给人留下了非常深刻的印象,但是近几十年以来,其成功的概率已经明显降低。

  我们不妨来看看我针对两百天移动平均线随势操作指标的回溯测试,这一测试的起点是十九世纪晚期道琼斯工业平均指数创建时。具
体而言,我建立了一个虚拟投资组合,无论何时,只要道指的点位处于两百天移动平均线之上,就完全投资,反之则撤出全部资金。

  这样一种投资策略的长期业绩确实令人印象深刻。买进持有投资策略的历史年平均回报率为5.1%,而两百天移动平均线策略则达到
了6.8%。必须指出的是,后者不但可以明显提升回报,而且由于相当时间都是在股市之外,同时也自然大幅削弱了投资风险。

  非常遗憾的是,这种移动平均线体系近二十年的表现让人失望。从1990年到今年5月底,它的年平均回报率是4.2%,大大落后于买
进持有策略的7.2%。尽管处于股市之外的时候,这一策略还可以从货币市场获得一定的回报,但是这显然不足以弥补差距。

  即便考虑到风险因素的影响,这二十年间,两百天移动平均线系统的表现依然不及大盘。

  布兰德斯大学金融学教授勒巴隆(Blake LeBaron)对包括移动平均线策略在内的各种不同技术分析策略进行了广泛的研究,其结论之
一是,确实有很大的可能性,市场上发生了某种永久性的变化,使得移动平均线作为随势操作指标的潜能被抹杀殆尽。

(There is the distinct possibility that something has permanently changed in the financial
markets that largely eliminated the moving average’s potential as a market timing indicator.)


  那么,到底是什么发生了变化?勒巴隆教授推测,可能是因为两百天移动平均线体系愈来愈为人所知,为人所用的缘故。不必说,
当为数众多的投资者都开始采用同一种策略,这种策略超越大盘的成算就会迅速降低。As more and more investors begin
to follow a system, of course, its potential to beat the market begins to evaporate.


  不过,勒巴隆教授同时也指出,尽管移动平均线系统在美国股市上已经逐渐褪去了光环,但是与此同时,在海外市场上,它还没有失
去自己的效率。换言之,这也就意味着另外一种可能性的存在——移动平均线系统近年来在美国股市的不佳表现也可能就是个偶然。

  总而言之,除非你有充分的理由认定移动平均线系统过去二十年的表现真的只是漫长历史当中的例外,不然的话,在根据两百天移动
平均线做出股票交易决定之前,你最好还是斟酌斟酌。


(子衿)

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文章时间: 2011-6-21 周二, 上午5:25    标题: 引用回复


美股评论:牛市丧钟早已敲响

2011年06月20日


   导读:MarketWatch专栏作家高德(Howard Gold)撰文介绍,标普首席技术策略师阿贝特认为,我们所经历的牛市很可能在4月底已经见顶,而投资者现在唯一能够等待的,就是大盘稍后逆势反弹带来的退场机会。以下即高德的评论文章全文:

  4月29日,周五,全世界有二十亿人观看了威廉王子的婚典。

  上百万人聚集在伦敦的街头,在这对新人通往白金汉宫的一路上献上他们的祝福,从拥有千年历史的威斯敏斯特教堂开始,五千口不同的钟齐齐为他们奏响,前后长达三个小时。

  同样在这一天,全球金融市场也在上演着类似的火爆场面——白银、原油(94.23,0.97,1.04%)和股票价格都收于历史高点附近。标准普尔500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数都达到了2009年3月以来的最高水位。在这一天,罗素2000指数创下了历史纪录。

  华尔街故老相传早有种说法:市场达到顶部时也不会敲钟通知的。可是,这一次似乎是个例外:那么,威斯敏斯特的钟声敲响,究竟是宣告一场去年那样的调整——股市从4月高点下跌16%——即将到来,还是为整个的牛市敲响了丧钟?

  标准普尔股票研究首席技术策略师阿贝特(Mark Arbeter)认为,显然是后一种可能性更大。

  在5月17日一篇题为《牛市或将结束》的研究报告当中,阿贝特写道,近期大宗商品市场的抛售,新兴市场的疲软,以及美元汇率的反弹“强化了防御性板块的地位……国债收益率的崩溃意味着可能是正在走出重大的顶部”。

  他的结论是:“我们现在正经历着一场15%到20%,甚至可能更大的跌势,疲软势头将会一直持续到2012年。”

  作为一位技术分析师,阿贝特首先关注的就是图表,而图表现在画出的可不是一幅美妙的画面。甚至可以说,现在我们所看到的,更像是蒙克(Edvard Munch)那著名的《呐喊》。

  阿贝特指出,标普500指数已经跌破了1320点的重大支撑线,而之后又进一步下探至1295点。下一个重要目标将是1250点——日本危机于3月中旬爆发之后,股市跌到的谷底——现在我们距离那里已经不远了。

  金融板块受到的冲击尤其强烈。阿贝特介绍说,这些股票已经“跌到了(它们)2010年12月以来的最低水平”,在近期的涨势中表现也不及大盘。

  如果你想按照惯例,在这时候拿商品和贵金属来当避风港,那阿贝特可要说些你不爱听的话了。

  “在我们看来,商品已经见顶了。”他写道,“我们认为黄金(1545.00,3.00,0.19%)可能一路跌到每盎司1250美元到1300美元,之后才会出现真正的买进机会。白银可能在每盎司30美元附近找到支撑线,但是我们觉得,在调整行情结束之前,它跌到20美元区间也是有可能的。”

  天哪——我们要是在50美元的价位上买进白银,那不惨了!

  美元因素

  4月下旬,联储主席伯南克宣布了新一轮量化宽松计划(QE2),以刺激疲软的经济,这一消息令市场心情大好,敢于承担风险的交易大行其是。然而,现在和那时相比,情况已经发生了明显的变化。

  当时的局面进展直接刺激了高风险资产的复兴,从小型股票到铜、原油等商品,都走出了低点,在4月底冲上了高峰——尤其是白银,价格竟然上涨了150%之多。

  商品价格大涨的主要推动力就是美元的疲软。交易者和投资者都不看好美元汇率的前景,因此自然就将赌注押在了相对强势的通货,以及商品的身上。

  “在过去的几次股市周期当中,股票和美元一直都呈现负向关联的走势。这就是说,当美元走低,股票就走高,而当美元走高,股票就走低。”

  于是我们看到,2002年到2008年,股票走强,美元走弱,之后伴随美元汇率上扬,股票进入熊市,而股市2009年3月开始反弹,恰恰又是在美元再度疲软的时间。去年到现在发生了什么,在此就不必赘言了。

  可是现在,QE2正走向结束,而QE3还踪影皆无,阿贝特认为,趋势正在反转过来:他相信,美元一段时期内将趋于稳定并走高,而那些高风险资产的行情,则是相反的方向。

  以美元对世界上若干主要货币编制的美元指数,5月上旬在73点以下见底,之后反弹,但是在76点再度遭受卖压袭击。

  阿贝特估计,在眼前的调整或者熊市结束之前,美元指数将达到80点,甚至更高的水平。整体而言,美元汇率愈是上扬,股票和商品价格就愈是下跌。

  其他技术分析师同样察觉到了麻烦的到来。“中期指标现在都是负数。”麦克米兰(Lawrence McMillan)在他的投资通讯The Option Strategist当中写道,“超卖的状况或许足以推动一场以1325点为目标的反弹,但是只要(标普500指数)的大趋势还是下滑,那么终归要轮到熊派说话。”

  基本面的情况也同样让人乐观不起来:QE2的终结,经济疲软的消息,希腊危机的新一波,对通货膨胀的忧虑,还有新兴市场,尤其是被视为世界经济引擎的中国增长减速的问题。还有,关于美国债券上限的政治危机也可能让市场遭到剧烈的冲击。

  最后的最后,我们现在还是在夏季,早已被历史证明不适合股市的季节。

  不要等待

  可见,阿贝特的极端谨慎立场,绝对是有其合理原因的。

  他对我表示,标普500指数最终可能会跌到1130点(跌幅17%),甚至在最坏情况下,还可能会跌到1000点至1020点。这大致就是去年7月的低点,而且不必说,这就是名副其实的熊市了。

  我并不相信股市会下跌那么多,如果股市在一场戏剧性的调整之后继续以牛市的脚步前进,我丝毫不会吃惊。事实上,这也是比里尼(Laszlo Birinyi)和鲍尔森(Jim Paulsen)等人的看法。

  可是,正如我在几周前就开始主张的那样,现在兑现至少一部分投资利润,应该是个不坏的主意。

  “现在我是非常谨慎。”阿贝特接受采访时表示,“我不能预测跌势会多狠,但是我确实看到了许多消极因素,我认为大家应该兑现。”

  他觉得,一旦标普500指数造访1250点,我们可能会看到一场“逆势上涨”——大势已近是熊市了——而在他看来,这样的潜在涨势也不可能越过1315点,不过这倒是投资者在市场再度走低之前一个难得的退出时机。

  “我会在那时卖出的,为什么还要等待?”


(子衿)

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文章时间: 2011-6-21 周二, 下午3:42    标题: 引用回复

美股专家观点:SP500年底要冲 1450

Strategist: S&P 1450 by Year End
2011-06-21


Andre Bakhos is looking for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to experience a "cleansing flush" to refresh the bullish case. The director of market analytics for Lek Securities sees plenty of risks and a dearth of reasons to buy in the here and now. But he is optimistic that the introduction of a little bit of fear will give investors an entry point somewhere around the obsessively eyeballed 1,250 level.

There is "no theme to this market," says the colorful Bakhos. "It's thematic-less." While some may quibble with the idea that "crushingly dull" isn't a theme, Andre will get no flak from me regarding the creation of the word "thematic-less."

In the larger picture, Bakhos is of the belief that the S&P500 could end the year at 1,450 or more, raising the question of why investors shouldn't buy now. Again, we get to the absence of fear, which Andre feels will be necessary to mount a sustainable rally. "I believe the market will provide you and everyone else a better entry point," he says, suggesting it's worth the wait before putting money to work in stocks again.

It's a theme Bakhos repeats about the Nasdaq, only more so. The formerly "tech-laden" index has been threatening to break below both the 200 and the day moving averages, technical measures widely watched on the Street.

Bakhos says everyone looks at the 200 and 50 days, even individual and professional investors who never fess up to such a thing. All the eyeballs upon those levels means they matter, whether anyone admits it or not. Those in the latter camps should ignore the following: Apple (AAPL), currently trading at $316, is 9 points below its 200 day and 22 points shy of the 50-day. More intriguingly, the Nasdaq is sitting smack-dab on its 200-day MA.

If you're looking for a way to spice up your work experience on the first day of summer, keep an eye on that Nasdaq today. A close more than a purple crayon's width below 2,640 could mean our long-awaited "cleansing flush" in stocks is at hand.


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY+Interactive#chart1:symbol=spy;range=my;indicator=macd;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

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文章时间: 2011-6-24 周五, 下午5:57    标题: 引用回复


2012:美国下一轮衰退元年?

纽约时报|2011-06-24


美国经济现在只是路遇颠簸还是正在向下一波衰退进发?曾经准确预言美国房地产市场泡沫破灭和金融危机发生的经济学家席林直言是后者,他认为房地产市场对于美国经济的拖累不会在短时间里结束,而2012年就是美国经济下一轮衰退的元年。

美国经济是路遇颠簸还是双底衰退?

从企业高管到市井百姓,这是近期街头巷尾热议的话题。企业主、员工、甚至于经济学家,都迫切想知道,美国经济只是在上升途中遇到阻力,还是已经开始调头向下?

人们都知道经济增长半温不热,失业率将熊一样不可撼动,房地产市场更是臭不可闻。这也就是为什么,华尔街金融巨头和国际货币基金组织(IMF)近期纷纷调低美国2011年经济增长预期,而美联储(FED)22日也加入这一行列。

对于美国经济而言,房地产行业至关重要,而曾经准确预测到美国房地产市场泡沫破灭和金融危机发生的经济学家席林(Gary Shilling)直言:“美国经济2012年将再度陷入衰退。”

但席林强调这不是双底衰退,因为美国经济走出上一波衰退已有两年之久,经济周期的上一个顶点(2007年12月)也已经过去三年半。他表示,从历史上看,经济扩张一般会持续三年左右时间,自2000年之后更加是这样。因此,他认为美国将从2012年开始进入一波全新的衰退周期。

在席林看来,即便美国民众没有察觉到即将到来的衰退和正在进行的经济复苏之间的差异,也不足为怪。一般而言,2008年这种深度经济衰退过后,都伴随着经济的强劲反弹,就像一个充满张力的弹弓。但这一次,美国经济复苏力度明显“不够档次”。

席林指出,“到2011年第一季度末,实际GDP将将超过2007年第四季度创出的高点,而在此前几次复苏过程中,13个季度之后实际GDP都远远超过之前高点。”换句话说:上一轮经济周期高潮已经过去三年有余,美国经济依然没有回到起点。

出现这一情况的原因有很多,而且这些原因不仅仅在于此次金融危机让经济增长格外遭受的痛苦。席林表示,经济体系就像一个四缸引擎,经济复苏一般要求四个汽缸----消费支出、就业、住房以及去库存周期----同时发力。

但席林认为,只有去库存化周期出现了实实在在的复苏,消费支出只有部分反弹,而且主要集中于稍微富裕一些的民众。就业略有改善,但近期改善幅度较慢,这是以往几次经济复苏当中绝对不存在的现象。至于房地产市场,每年都有人预言何时触底,但每一年房价都在下降。

席林当然不是美国房地产行业的乐观派,他预计房地产市场到2013年才会触底,在这之前,房价会再跌20%。自2006年触顶以来,美国房价已经累计跌去三分之一。如果席林的观点正确,那就意味着,美国房价顶点和底部之间相差45%,接近腰斩。

在席林看来,美国房地产市场之痛在于库存太多:他估计美国现在可能有多达200万套房子急欲出售,但却找不到买家。这导致新屋销售受挫----现在,美国新屋销售水平仅仅为正常年份(150万套一年)的三分之一。

席林认为,房地产市场触底之后,需要十年时间才可能缓过劲来,这可能意味着美国年均经济增长率停留在2%左右,而且一停就是好几年。

席林表示,美国政府和美联储已经使出浑身解数帮助经济复苏,但成效微弱。美联储的两轮量化宽松政策除了刺激商品价格和股价上涨,没有带来其他任何好处。他认为商品市场已经出现迷你泡沫,而奥巴马政府为拯救房地产市场推出的住房可偿付调整计划(Home Affordable Modification Program)“死的非常难看”。

大选年即将到来,他预言美国政客肯定会想办法“做点什么”,“如果美国经济继续疲弱不堪,我们可能会看到新刺激措施面世,政客不会希望拿着一份十分难看的经济成绩单面对选民。”

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文章时间: 2011-6-27 周一, 上午10:19    标题: 引用回复


We Don't Need a QE3 Program

Jun 23, 2011 10:07 AM


I suppose the main reason why stocks are lower is because Bernanke failed to knowledge the need for further quantitative easing. Maybe he's right. The economy is doing fine (in terms of profits & earnings) and yield on 'risk free' assets are essentially zero, providing an economic incentive to invest, not hoard money.

1. short term yields have fallen from 4% to zero

2. long term yields still remain near historic lows

3. huge BRIC surpluses already function as a QE program by keeping yields low. China's trade surplus, for example, is used to buy treasuries.

4. US economy is still booming Expecting yet another quarter of blowout earnings from tech, commodity,energy, industrial, and cyclical sectors. We haven't had a 'bad' earning season since 2008. Financials and home builders will remain weak, although this is not bearish for the overall economy.

5. The fed knows it can't create jobs . Permanently low interest rates and record low corporate bond yields ( http://capital-flow-watch.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/Bond_Yield.gif ) apparently isn't enough to convince S&P 500 companies (which are sitting on $800 billion cash) to hire.

6. Market downturns are temporary, fundamentals still rule. As stocks have fallen in recent months PE ratios continue to contract, a positive sign. It would be really bad, on the other hand, if PE ratios ROSE as stocks fell. Stocks will be at 52 week highs again soon enough.

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文章时间: 2011-6-28 周二, 上午8:24    标题: 引用回复


LARRY FINK:
Screw QE3 -- We Don't Need It -- And Stocks Are About To Soar

Courtney Comstock | Jun. 10, 2011

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink was just on CNBC.

Here's what he said:

He's bullish on equities and he doesn't think we need QE3.

"I don't see any reason to think we need a QE3."

Expectations this year were too high, he says.

We're going to be in this 2ish, 2.5% percent for the rest of the year.

Bill Gross is a great investor, he has a different view.

BlackRock's view: there will be so little demand for bonds that it's not a huge profit opportunity.

The market became a little too expensive in high yield, and the fixed income market and especially the high yield market, but now the entry into that market is looking pretty good.

The private sector is truly benefitting from the weak dollar right now. (He's also bullish on the dollar.) He thinks the private sector's in a great position.

On the country's economic challenges right now: which is more important, sparking growth or reducing debt? That is THE question, he says.

The government has been giving and giving throughout our entire lifetime. Now it's taking away and that's a huge change.

We're starting to attract jobs back into the country... We're going to overcome this growth in the private sector.

ON REGULATION AND WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET:

"Washington is a partnership" -- if Washington puts too much constraints on the private sector, we WILL inhibit that kind of growth. And that relationship has to be mitigated.

[This is a big issue now that Jamie Dimon recently spoke out about -- the government putting too many regulations on the banks. Dimon suggested to Ben Bernanke earlier this week that so many restrictions were slowing growth and job creation.]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/live-coverage-larry-fink-on-cnbc-2011-6#ixzz1QZop4xac

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文章时间: 2011-7-16 周六, 上午9:43    标题: 引用回复


跟Jim Rogers买入日元相似,该文也预测日元升值。



Hidden Yen Signal & Gold Breakout

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/jul142011.html
By Jim Willie CB Jul 14 2011 11:50AM


www.GoldenJackass.com

Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Take a short break from all the hubbub in the United States over the faltering USEconomy, the reckless politicians pretending to come to a USGovt budget agreement (small or large), and the tacit admission by USFed Chairman Bernanke that indeed QE3 is very likely. The June Jobs Report confirmed my forecast of a moribund economy in deterioration. The Republicans will not budge on their refusal to approve tax increases. The Democrats will not budge on their refusal to approve entitlement cuts. The Pentagon through hidden pressures has managed to keep the sacred war off the table for discussion, even though it stands as the largest factor in the federal deficits. But the queer item is that President Obama spent most of his time in the last six weeks raising $86 million for his re-election campaign. His taking the high road in the budget discussion reeks of hypocrisy. The absence of leadership in the executive branch is matched by an equal absence in the Congress. The leadership at the US Federal Reserve is clear, but the incompetence and lost credibility has rendered the bumbling professor chairman a mere Wall Street tool whose ample tools dole out capital destruction. Bernanke must react to the USTreasury Bond market pressures as much as his own long string of steadily wrong forecasts. My forecast was for QE3 to come by summer. The blueprints are on the table. The head fake and diversion drivel spouted by Helicopter Ben were ignored by the Jackass, just like the Green Shoots and Exit Strategy and No QE2 distractions in the last two years. Quantitative Easing will go viral next, enough to call it Global QE. Gold & Silver will react, gold first with solid gains, then silver with massive gains to follow. The common theme is the ruin of money. Watch Italy for an extremely robust toxic powerful addition to the entire dangerous mix. Its nation is very large, whose debts are huge.

In March the earthquakes and tsunami struck with a vengeance. Amidst the rubble came a financial response of obscure variety, reminiscent of the Kobe earthquake of 1995. The response was an emergency G-7 Meeting of finance ministers to soak up all the USTreasury Bonds dumped en masse by the Japanese collectively. Not just the Bank of Japan, but the many insurance companies and financial firms were into the act, raising huge sums of money. Reconstruction claims, stock market swoons, and corporate relocation costs mounted. They all sold from the hoard of USTBonds accumulated over the decades from the Yen Carry Trade. Twenty years of near 0% rates in Japan, contrasted to semi-normal rates in the United States made for a grand carry trade for speculators, the Japanese financial entities being the expert. The coordinated sponge effect of the Western nations to take what Japan sold, to do so off the grid of the FOREX markets. That enabled the Japanese Yen to fall from the flashing signal at 128 down to a tame 117. All was fixed, all cured, crisis averted. Not so fast!! The reconstruction in Japan, along with a wide array of related costs, would not go away so easily. It is back!!

GLOBAL QE

In a Jackass piece entitled "Currency Deadend Paradoxes" from late April, warning was given in the form of a forecast. The Yen currency would rise, contrary to conventional thinking. It has done precisely that, a correct call, but the best part of the move has yet to come. The rationale for the forecast was sale of foreign assets to finance reconstruction, to cover the newly arriving trade deficit, and to alleviate political pressures against further wreckage of the government budget. Two decades of stimulus failed to achieve much economic rebound and recovery from the 0% dead end on the monetary road, a lesson the Americans never learned. Their heads are too steeped in arrogance to bother to learn basic economics and finance. In April, the Jackass harsh words were "The dull blades posing as economists in the United States fail to observe the Japanese lesson that a nation never emerges from the 0% corner. To admit this is to admit a failure of the monetary system and central bank franchise control tower." The words still apply. Revisionist history prevailed, just like with Professor Bernanke and his aberrant revisionist account of the Great Depression. We are learning that mass deployment of the electronic money printing machine has indeed a wicked cost, hardly free, in the form of a rising global cost structure and powerful profit squeeze. The result is an economy in permanent recession. My description of the G-7 Accord to sell down the Japanese Yen via backroom purchase of USTBonds was GLOBAL QE. With the mushroom of European sovereign debt ruin, the contagion to Italy and soon Greece, the declaration of junk status for Portugal and Ireland in addition to the toxic paper blowing from Mt Olympus, the new dawn of Global Financial Crisis part II has hit.

THE JAPANESE YEN BREAKOUT

My eye never stopped watching the J-Yen currency exchange rate since May. A couple of feints were cut off at the pass. But here in July, at the supposed ordered end of QE2, the game is on again. The 125 resistance level has been shattered on the third attempt since April. This time, another Global QE will be needed to stop the Yen from rising more. The reconstruction is underway. Insurance firms are cashing in to raise funds urgently needed. The financial firms are recognizing yet another important liquidation phase in the Yen Carry Trade. Those who delay in liquidation will face huge losses. This is an important unrecognized short cover squeeze on the Yen currency. It is the hidden signal. Look for rising price inflation on imports to the USEconomy. Add Japan to China as the source of rising prices to US retail shelves on finished electronic products.



The April analysis included many important points in my view, enough to warrant this article as followup. The most salient points are worth repeating. They apply in spades here and now. The recent action in the Japanese flagship Nikkei stock index below 10,000 has sparked a torrent of USTBond sales for rescue funds outside the Japanese walls. A weak stock market has conspired with reconstruction costs due. Foreign asset sales finally hit critical mass. The article from the spring made these points. The paradox finally has hit the billboards in plain view. Domestic disruption to the vast industrial and car supply sector can next combine with a slower USEconomic demand to bring the trade deficit into view.

The after effects in Japan will work in numerous hidden ways to lift their Yen currency. Its steady stubborn rise will confuse the constantly wrong-footed economists. The next phase inside Japan will include an unspoken emphasis of foreign asset sales in order to fund the staggering costs and to avert price inflation. Additional debt with Yen markings risks a surge in domestic price inflation. In the next year, the Japanese trade balance will turn into an outright deficit. The trade deficit will not keep down the Yen exchange rate down. The deficit will send into reverse the process of suppressing the Yen currency for 20 to 30 years. No longer will the Japanese financial institutions, led by the BOJ, purchase the USTBonds.

The critical point was reached three weeks ago when an emergency G-7 Meeting was convened. Its purpose was coordination to buy USTBonds and keep the Yen down, ergo Global QE. The Yen Sale Pact was never called Global QE but that is the proper interpretation, since all major central banks became USTBond buyers of last resort. The Gold & Silver market properly interpreted the event, and surged to breakout levels. The effect of the G-7 desperate clumsy pact was temporary. The trade deficit will not keep down the Yen exchange rate down. Contrary to standard economic theory, their trade gap will push up the Yen currency. Such a Jackass forecast goes directly contrary to their broken standard theoretical concepts, few if any have shown to contain much validity or sinew to hold together the broken planks of their financial theory. The Japanese Yen currency will continue to rise even though a trade deficit comes. Their trade surplus used to enable vast funds to suppress the Yen, now gone. The Japanese will sell foreign assets to cover the deficits. They will have to avoid price inflation by selling available foreign assets, in particular the plentiful US$-based assets. Banks will lead the final phase of the Yen Carry Trade unwinding process. Insurance companies will unload US$-based assets in order to finance claims. The financial firms will unload US$-based assets so as to protect Japanese stock values.

A SOUR EURO: THE NEW FACTOR

A new factor has joined in the push to breakout. Emerging market nations are storing reserves more and more in the Japanese Yen. Either a rising Euro or the toxic Euro-based sovereign debt has deterred investment of reserves. No longer do the emerging market nations regard the Euro currency as a fine upstanding alternative to the increasingly suspect USDollar. The USDollar is sliding in the role at asset held in FOREX reserves. Its reserve currency status is widely questioned. In a single decade, the USDollar share of reserve assets fell by over 11%, a huge amount. In the last twelve months, the share fell by another 1%. In the meantime, the Japanese Yen, Aussie Dollar, and Canadian Dollar are relied upon more. One can understand the movement to the other dollars with their strong resource and mineral riches. The rising commodity price trend has given strong support to the Aussie and Loonie. The revolt continues, as confidence is eroding. The USDollar share of global reserves continues to decline, and its reserve status has been called into question. An Intl Monetary Fund report was released in late June. The Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COMFER) lists reserves held at central banks in 33 developed economies and 105 emerging and developing economies. Further confirmation came that the USDollar is gradually losing its reserve status. The USDollar slipped. The Euro slipped. But the Japanese Yen, the Aussie Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar gained. Gradual diversification is happening. Gaping USGovt deficits, debt limit roadblocks, profound bond fraud, protection of big US insolvent banks, and outright hyper monetary inflation by the USFed to cover the deficits have contributed to the USDollar decline. China was not part of the sample, curiously or intentionally.

The US share of allocated reserves fell by the end of 1Q2011 to 60.69%% from 61.53% in Q4 2010. Central Bank reserves would have been steeper if China was included in the sample. The decline has been signicant over the last decade, a full 10% less. One year ago, the greenback share stood at 61.64%, almost one percent less. In 1Q2001, ten years ago, it stood at 72.3%, over 11% less. No longer is the greenback dominant. Nations are scurrying to diversify, in an act of self-preservation and bank system survival. In local discussions and at conferences such as the G-20, talks are held about a move toward a multi-currency system, which the US and UK leaders attempt to stall and sidetrack. The USDollar remains first among peers, but times are changing. Deflationist morons fail to notice, surely not its effect on costs. The global financial crisis has altered banking practices in a profound manner. Emerging and developing nations accumulated foreign reserves in high volume during the first quarter. Capital flows from the older economies has been huge. The data is shocking. Richer older nations added $65.5 billion in reserves, of those $1.6 billion in US$ terms. The data is staggering. Emerging markets added $366.3 billion in reserves, of those $65.8 billion in US$ terms. The Japanese Yen was a primary beneficiary of emerging market diversification. Their central banks accumulated $6.6 billion in new JPY reserves in the first quarter, lifting the allocation to 2.9%. The Canadian and Australian Dollars were other beneficiaries, whose share climbed to 5.8% from 5.1% in 4Q2010.

Emerging markets spot the European crisis unfolding in full glory. They have moved out a little from the Euro currency, where its share fell to 28.2%. But globally the Euro share rose to 26.6%, up a tiny amount. Nomura analysts reason that central banks reacted to the Euro strength as an opportunity to move into the Yen and other currencies. One can infer that the Yen is seen as a mature currency (yet it yields nothing on bonds), and the two other Dollars are resource currencies with strong national commodity supply. Expect the data in July to show less affection for the Euro, given the contagion has spread to Italy, and given the downgrade of Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to junk status. The COMFER report produced by the IMF continues to support the thesis that the USDollar is losing its reserve status. In a very gradual process of erosion, central banks rely upon stable allocations but they clearly are depending less and less on the greenback.

SNAPSHOT OF SWISSY

Gold bullion (along with Silver bullion) is the latest key reserve asset being vigorously pursued by central banks. Within the European continent, great distress is generated by the entire sovereign debt crisis. The government bonds from the Southern nations in Europe are equally toxic as the mortgage bonds of the United States. The other common thread is woven from the hand of Goldman Sachs, caught red-handed in corrupted currency swap contracts to conceal the Greek debt volume. Given the differentiation of Euro Notes from strong nation to weak nation, where bond yields vary wildly among the entire group of sovereign entities, the Euro currency has been able to trade on interest rate alone. The Euro Central Bank last week hiked rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% which gave more support to the common Euro currency. The entire sovereign debt crisis and strain on European banks, if not the EU economy, has opened the door for a paper wealth exodus to Switzerland. The small nation of 7 million people remains a haven for storing funds safely. The same cannot be said for gold bullion in private allocated accounts. Regardless of raids to allocated accounts, and massive footdragging on delivery upon demand, complicated by numerous multi-$million lawsuits, the move to Switzerland for storing funds in safe haven has been vast. While the Aussie Dollar and Canadian Dollar might be the resource plays in the currency market, the Swissie is the big fiat paper play in the FOREX. The Swissie has broken out above the 120 level. It is up 20% to 25% since the 2009 and 2010. The range for 2009 was SWF from 84 to 100. The range for 2010 was 86 to 106. The Swissie is the fiat paper story, while Gold is the metal story.



GOLD BREAKOUT IN MAJOR CURRENCIES

The gold breakout slams the Western bankers with all their chicanery in naked shorts of Gold & Silver, chicanery in dumping crude oil from reserves, chicanery in debt monetization of USTBonds, and chicanery in doctored economic reports. The crumbling monetary system continues. The sovereign debt contagion is in the process of jumping from Greece to Italy, a major escalation of bank risk and regional crisis. Spain is next. For context, consider that Italy is three times larger than Greece, Portugal, and Ireland combined. Italy has the largest debt burden and highest debt ratio in all of Europe. Italy has almost 60 million in population, six times larger than Greece. The grand daddy of all risk is the United States. Apart from the baseline risk of exceeding a rigidly enforced debt limit, the US looks remarkably like Greece in debt ratios. To be more accurate, the US is Greece times one hundred. Just as insolvent as a nation like Greece, just as absent in a fundamental industrial base. The second half recovery mantra nonsense in the USEconomy has been blatant propaganda for five years running. The second half will feature a powerful Gold & Silver breakout rally that will blow the socks off the public and investment community, and blow brown particulate matter with excretory chunks on banker faces. The keys are debt virus hitting Italy and Spain in Europe, and the recession accelerating in the United States. The US housing market is stuck in terminal decline, dragging down the big US banks which have toxic homes on their balance sheets. The kicker is the debt limit debate, and gross incompetence and lack of leadership exhibited within the USGovt.




Gold has broken out in US$ terms. The Gold price has extended gains to $1594 today. It is a CH away from $1600. Notice the wonderful W-shaped bullish reversal pattern. The double bottom has been established and retested. With a boxed low of 1475 and high of 1565, look for a target of 1655 in gold. Discount all talk from Wall Street on the Gold price. They are defending attacks on their own bunkers loaded still with toxic paper, together with court attacks to win restitution on mortgage bond fraud, even raiding their Loan Loss Reserves to augment profit stories. The clownish Bernanke actually told the USCongressional committee this week that gold was not money, contrary to a Greenspan position. Bernanke is an utter dolt, a hack financial engineer, a mad paper merchant, an ink salesman, a journeyman paper shuffler, a destroyer of capital. Gold is banking system ballast, absent since 1971, when the cost of the Vietnam War forced the Nixon Admin to abandon the Gold Standard and to defy foreign claims. The offshore exodus of Intel and other tech firms to the Pacific Rim produced a trade gap that forced the issue. The US is officially isolated. The Euro Central Bank is focused on price inflation, hiking rates. The USFed is focused on growth, stuck at the 0% rate. A great monetary schism is in progress. The rating agencies have decided reluctantly to do their job. To have USGovt debt at AAA is like calling a hurricane a bright sunny day, like giving the stupidest kid in class straight A grades, like having Ugly Betty win as the prom queen, like naming the Pittsburgh Pirates as baseball's best.



Gold has broken out in Euro currency terms. It is powerful and convincing, not too surprising since the sovereign debt crisis has its center stage in Europe. Notice the gigantic bullish triangle that has formed over the last several months. An impulse low of 9.65 and resistance of 10.85 yields a target of 1200 for Gold in Euro terms. A gap exists between 10.85 and 11.0, which should fill, maybe not, but probably yes. That is the European final entry opportunity for Gold investors. The Gold breakout in US$ terms and Euro terms makes for a strong confirmation. A potential wild card ugly might lie on the money market horizon in Europe, based in USDollars. It is on the verge of blowing up.



Gold has broken out in British Pound currency terms. That completes the trifecta in gold breakout in three major currencies. The UK banking system is in ruins. The UKEconomy is in deadly decline. Price inflation has arrived. Rupert Murdoch has provided a nice distraction in London, much bigger than Manchester United. The Gold price is flirting with a breakout in Canadian Dollar terms. There is no semblance of Gold breakout in either Swissie terms or Aussie Dollar terms, where the currencies are too strong. Prepare for a massive bull rally in both Gold & Silver from July through January. The yellow metal as usual will fight the political and banker battles and clear the path for the white horse metal to sprint. The Silver price gains in US$ terms will continue to triple the Gold price gains, but Silver must be given a little time to overcome the spiked springtime top near $50. All in time. The Commitment of Traders report on commercial positions indicates that Silver is ready to rock & roll once again. A very hot autumn is coming from precious metals, their annual strong season. Fireworks a plenty are in store. The global monetary system is crumbling, whose sovereign debt foundation is collapsing. It is that simple. Money is in ruins. Greece and Italy serve as detonation.

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July 14, 2011

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文章时间: 2011-8-16 周二, 上午2:03    标题: 引用回复


担心崩盘? 看看有没有下面的现象。。。



著名金融作家辛西尔(Michael Sincere)在MarketWatch撰文指出,近两年来,不断有人预言崩盘,但却一再被证明是误导,作为投资者和交易者,有必要了解崩盘的若干本质特征和可能的线索。

  以下即辛西尔的评论文章全文:


  在两年多的时间当中,很多人一直都在发布警报,称股市随时可能崩盘。颇有一些人听信了这样的说法,于是将自己的资金深深埋藏到了短期债券或者现金当中。结果他们得到了什么呢?他们错过了股市历史上最可观的反弹之一。

  尽管我们这个世界面临着众多这样或者那样的问题,弹力十足的市场却还是坚持着一路上行。不过,根据市场近期的行情,以及我从一些交易者那里得到的反馈,我现在确实愈来愈倾向于相信,市场要想再涨10%或者15%,恐怕是要先跌10%或者15%了。

  我之所以要撰写本文,其实就是为了帮助交易者和投资者理解那些通常会出现在崩盘之前的线索和心理特征。诚然,没有谁能够百分之百准确地预见事情发生的时间,但是只要你足够关注,你确实能够看到那些信号。

  线索一:领先股票下跌

  这一线索是来自《笑傲股市》作者、Investor’s Business Daily创始人兼董事长奥尼尔(William J. O’Neil)。如果像Priceline.com Inc(PCLN)、亚马逊(AMZN)或者苹果(AAPL)这样的股票开始下跌,这就意味着市场处于虚弱之中,动能因素正向着糟糕的方向变化。

  此外,现在我们的牛市已经走过了两年的路程,同时可以预见的未来条件正在变得糟糕,这一切无疑都在大大增加着调整,乃至崩盘的可能性。总之,我们的结论是,注意那些领先股票。

  线索二:9月和10月诅咒

  历史统计资料告诉我们,大多数崩盘都是发生在9月或者10月。如果你正在股市当中投资,那么在这两个月,你必须提起高度的警觉,来提防可能会发 生的崩盘。因为绝大多数交易者都对9月和10月崩盘的故事非常清楚,他们的手随时放在扳机上,这就决定了,在这两个月份当中,市场的波动将是非常惊人的。

  线索三:投机失控

  相信很多人还没有忘记1999年的疯狂日子,那时候,高通(QCOM)这样的互联网宠儿,股价一天涨个一百点也没有什么稀奇。对于这种事情,我 最喜欢的是十七世纪荷兰的郁金香狂热,当时成千上万的荷兰人都可以支付不菲的价格——具体说来,就是拿相当于今天的二十万美金去买一个郁金香的球茎。

  尽管整体而言,今天的市场环境还不能说有那么浓厚的投机味道,但是我们确实看到,一些股票的价格已经飞到了大气层之外。“说到估值问题,现在的 Twitter、Facebook、LinkedIn(LNKD)、潘多拉(P)和Zillow(Z)都是极端的例子。”专业交易者、空头卖家塞克斯 (Timothy Sykes)表示,“这些企业都有令人惊奇的运营模式,人们相信他们的成长永远不会停止。可是,这根本就是痴心妄想。Facebook现在的估值是800 亿美元,他们想看到1200亿美元,恐怕要先回到600亿美元的地面上来。”

  线索四:沮丧的媒体

  当媒体开始一天天数着市场下跌的日子报道,比如说现在已经是连续第五个下跌的交易日,投资者就会因此而感到紧张。“这会使得人们想要立即逃命。”塞克斯解释道,“就像觉得大水要来,拼命往高处跑一样。他们受到了恐惧的压力。”

  当然,媒体是报道新闻,并不是创造新闻,可是负面消息累积起来,确实会创造紧张和恐惧。他们不必多费周章,就会有成千上万的投资者彻底投降,拼命抛售。

  除开前面所举出的线索之外,一些崩盘特征也是很值得研究的。

  特征一:催化剂

  当市场已经受到削弱,想要令其继续走低,通常就需要某种大事件了。这就可能会成为造成崩盘的催化剂。

  “所谓崩盘,其实通常都不是凭空发生的。”塞克斯解释道,“除开少数例外,大多数崩盘行情都是发生在市场已经走下坡路的时候。”塞克斯指出,这 时候,人们已经是造成了一条下跌通道,当他们“突然有一天再也忍受不下去。他们的行动就会造成一场崩盘,而后者的动能实际上已经累积了若干天,若干周,甚 至是若干月”。

  最危险的市场形态就是漫长的,逐步的下跌,而且期间还没有像样的反弹。这种形态下,随时可能发生严重的崩盘。

  应该指出的是,当前的市场仍然是处于长达两年的上涨趋势当中,尽管近期是遇到了一些麻烦。

  特征二:大反弹

  众所周知,股市背后最强大的两只手就是恐惧和贪婪。尽管贪婪确实可以无限期存在下去,但是大多数人都不可能长期生活在恐惧当中。这就是为什么在 大崩盘之后,通常都会有大反弹上演的原因。“史上每一次大崩盘之后都有一次反弹,哪怕为时再短,也都是存在的。”塞克斯指出,“或许它规模没有那么大,时 间没有那么长,但是只要你在其他人恐慌的时候保持冷静和警觉,你就会有机会。”

  他还补充说,尽管闪电崩盘非常少见,但是却可以创造最强劲的反弹。

  特征三:崩盘通常不在顶部

  大多数人都觉得市场当中有些富有魔力的数字,比如道琼斯工业平均指数涨到1万3000点,之后就肯定要崩盘。这样的错误想法已经使得很多人失去 了很多赚钱的机会。“人们喜欢预测顶部。”塞克斯解释道,“因为他们总觉得顶部就会发生崩盘。然而事实是,顶部意味着市场不能再继续向上突破,但是崩盘通 常都不是发生在这里。”

  他指出,最常见的情况是,崩盘发生在下跌行情已经上演之后。“这会让动能买家吓跑,而崩盘的前奏也就奏响了。”

  比如说,道指从2007年10月的1万4164点下跌到2009年3月的6469点,用了大约十七个月的时间。在这过程之中,最严酷的一段行情其实只有五个月,开始于2008年10月1日,道指已经跌到1万850点时。

  无论是投资者还是交易者,大家都有必要了解关于崩盘的这些特征和线索。同样,我们也有必要未雨绸缪,针对下一次崩盘制定一个计划。

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