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性别:性别:男
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文章时间: 2010-2-17 周三, 下午9:59    标题: 春江水暖:QE & 政策篇 引用回复

中国敲警钟 抛美国国债


中国2009年底罕见地连续两个月减持美债,引发各方高度关注,目前美国主流媒体上出现了两种截然不同的解读:一种观点认为,没有迹象显示外国投资者将持续大幅抛售美元资产,故无需过分解读短期的数据;另一种观点则认为,中国减持美债是“给华盛顿敲响了警钟”,外国投资者未来会寻找比美债更好的投资渠道,加快外汇储备投资多样化的步伐。

美国财政部16日公布数据显示,中国去年12月份减持了342亿美元的美国国债,现持有7554亿美元;与此同时,日本则增持了115亿美元,以7688亿美元的持有额,成为“美国最大债主”。

美联社引述卡内基梅隆大学经济学教授艾伦.梅尔泽指出,中国减持美债,是给华盛顿敲响了警钟。“让中国感到担忧的是,美国的债务水平不可持续,而且政府拿不出应对政策。”他表示,中国担心美国政府偿还债务的信心降低,这将造成美债和美元价值下跌,继而导致中国所持的美债亏损。

另据彭博通讯社报道,中国虽然减持了短期美债,却买入了小量长期票据和债券。

经济学家分析指出,在美国预算赤字达到新高之际,中国选择将储备转投到其他投资上。2009年5月,中国持有高达8015亿美元的美国国债,而去年11月和12月则出现2007年以来唯一一次连续两个月减持美债的情况。

“如果这种减持规模持续下去,那就表明中国正在为投资多样化迈出更大的步伐,”纽约布朗兄弟哈里曼公司的资深外汇分析师温.辛说。

不过,对于中国减持美债,也有人持比较乐观的看法。标准普尔公司的首席经济学家戴维.怀斯说:“中国目前可能不太高兴,但我们必须要问,(中国的钱)不投资美债还能投资什么呢?”

包括中国在内的外国投资者去年12月份总共减持了530亿美元美国国债,创下新纪录。这意味着什么?

美联社的报道说,美国业内的看法分为两派:一些分析认为,外国投资者减持美债总额创新高,显然是一个预警讯号。美国预算赤字居高不下,引发外国投资者(尤其是中国)不安,他们开始寻找美债以外更好的投资渠道,使投资多样化。

另一些分析家则认为,这些数据虽然显示外国投资者对投资短期美债越来越感到不安,然而值得注意的是,外国投资者在出售短期国债的同时,又购买了长期美债--12月份美国长期国债的净买入总额接近700亿美元。一些美国的民间经济学家也说,无须过分解读美债遭减持的短期数据。他们指出,这些数字每个月都在变动,而欧洲的债务危机增加欧元贬值的压力,反而将增强对美债和美元的需求。

全球最大货币对冲基金FX Concepts董事长约翰.泰勒预测:虽然短期国债持有出现下降,但这一趋势可能会在未来数月内出现逆转,原因是作为美元主要替代品的欧元1月中旬以来出现大幅贬值。

对美元资产需求的持续下降,可能会导致美国利率上升和股市下跌,这都可能对美国经济复苏造成威胁。但经济学家表示,他们尚未看到这一迹象。温.辛指出,虽然有关减持美债的数据应该引起“适度关注”,但我们并不认为各主要国家的储备管理者会持续大笔抛售美元资产。

有分析人士认为中国的减持行为很正常,不要因为中美关系现在出现了问题就进行过分解读。位于美国华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的中国问题专家尼古拉斯・拉迪认为12月份的减持量总体而言规模还是很小的,他还称中国除了持有美国国债之外还持有数千亿美元公司债,因此美元资产的持有量仍然很大。而且,中美关系出现问题基本上是2010年之后的事情,去年12月一切还相对比较平静。因此中国的减持行动基本上是一种市场行为,是对美国财政赤字高企、经济复苏乏力的一种担忧。如果今年1月以及2月的数据出来之后,中国继续大幅减持美国国债,那或许才说明问题。

中国不断对处于危机水准的美国财政赤字和美元的贬值倾向表示担忧。而美国政府今后仍然有必要通过大量发行国债来筹措资金。如果中国继续减持美国国债,很有可能对美国政府造成打击,招致长期利息的上扬等结果。

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文章时间: 2010-2-18 周四, 下午2:29    标题: 引用回复

Transportation news: DOT reports Freight Transportation Service Index is flat from November to December
February 18, 2010


WASHINGTON - The United States Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported earlier today that its Freight Transportation Service Index (Freight TSI) was flat from November to December following a 1.8 percent gain from October to November.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, and it includes data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines, and air freight.

The December Freight TSI at 96.2 is the lowest for December since 1996, when it sank to 89.1, said BTS. And it added that the 4.1 percent year-over-year decline from December 2008 to December 2009 represents the fourth largest annual decline in the 20 years the Freight TSI has been calculated-and the third largest decline in the past decade following 2000 and 2008.

BTS added that the Freight TSI is down 13.2 percent (5yr) from December 2004-December 2009 and is down 8.4 percent (10yr)from December 1999-December 2009.




============================================================================

Price Trends Across Transportation Modes
September 1, 2009

http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/print/339487-Price_Trends_Across_Transportation_Modes.php


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文章时间: 2010-2-18 周四, 下午2:38    标题: 引用回复

Nobama所谓的经济复苏是不是robust,是不是sustainable,看看
transportation的数据就一目了然了。The recent improvements
in U.S. housing starts and manufacturing data as shown
today deserve a second look. 当然,现在别人抬轿我们坐,顺势
而为,但是届时见好就收不可忘。

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文章时间: 2010-2-18 周四, 下午2:44    标题: 引用回复

Trucking failures to accelerate this year
Thu Feb 18, 2010 12:29pm EST

Related News * WRAPUP 2-US truckers post lower profits; optimistic about 2010 Wed, Jan 27 2010


BANGALORE (Reuters) - Bankruptcies in the U.S. trucking industry are expected to escalate this year as higher fuel prices and excess capacity squeeze margins further and lenders start to tighten their noose on the sector.

Deals

The highly fragmented freight market in the United States has been in recession for about three years now. Excess capacity has put pressure on pricing and dented margins at truckers as well as freight brokers.

But the sector has not seen as many insolvencies as expected in the last two years, as lenders wait for the market to improve for the used trucks they hold as collateral.

Last year, lenders helped YRC Worldwide (YRCW.O), the No.1 U.S. trucker, narrowly avoid bankruptcy.

Industry analysts say a spike in bankruptcies might not be a bad thing after all for the sector -- it will take away hundreds of underperforming companies, suck out the excess capacity and finally narrow the gap between supply and demand.

Some of the bigger players in the market, such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.O), Werner Enterprises (WERN.O) and Knight Transportation (KNX.N), are expected to benefit as the insolvency of smaller firms create some breathing space in the sector.

Andy Ahern of consultancy firm Ahern & Associates said he would be surprised if he doesn't see at least 2,500 to 3,000 trucking companies go bankrupt in 2010.

According to Ahern, about 2,220 truckers went bankrupt in 2009, compared to 5,500 in 2008. The figures do not include companies that just shut down operations without filing for bankruptcy protection.

Even then, this represents a 60 percent decline in bankruptcies in a year when 70 percent of the trucking companies in the market made losses.

"We are going to see the collapse of two or three major carriers and that is going to be the beginning of the process of changing supply and demand, and when that happens trucking is going to start to rebound," Ahern said.

LENDERS WAIT AND WATCH

Lender leniency has so far stemmed bankruptcies in the trucking industry. Banks have not forced truckers into bankruptcy so far as the current value of used trucks held as collateral is so low that they are worth less than the debt.

"Because there is excess capacity, owning a bunch of trucks may not be a great asset at the moment for a bank as collateral," said Drew White of financial information company Sageworks Inc.

YRC, which narrowly avoided bankruptcy in December 2009, went through an elaborate debt exchange offer and received concessions from banks and labor union, avoiding a failure that would have changed the supply-demand dynamics in the trucking market.

But analysts don't believe YRC is out of the woods yet.

BMO Capital Markets' Jason Granger said YRC could at some point be forced into a position where it needs to significantly downsize its operations and resurface as a smaller organization.

Used trucks do not have a strong market as truckers are not adding to their fleet -- they already have a lot of trucks that are not in use due to low freight volumes.

"Banks traditionally have become more lenient toward forcing troubled carriers into bankruptcy in early stages of the down cycle," said BMO's Granger.

"As asset value that the banks hold as collateral improves, banks start to become more aggressive in forcing carriers into bankruptcy."

He expects the acceleration in bankruptcies to become more pronounced in late 2010 and 2011.

Rising fuel prices are another key factor in quickening the pace of bankruptcies. When the benchmark U.S. crude oil prices shot up 47 percent in the first half of 2008, U.S. trucking bankruptcies rose 130 percent, according to analyst Granger.

In the last two quarters of 2009, oil prices rose 13 percent. Oil averaged $76 a barrel in the fourth quarter, significantly higher than the $32.40 per barrel touched earlier that year.

Trucking failures are not the only way for excess capacity to leave the market. Some analysts believe mergers and acquisitions could start to see an upside as distressed deals happen and the larger players prepare for a recovery in 2011.

Tom Connolly, managing director at Eve Partners, an investment bank focusing on transportation and logistics, said some distressed deals and opportunistic acquisitions could happen, but he doesn't see a dramatic rise in M&As.

"I don't think bankruptcy is the only way (for excess capacity to leave the market) but it is the most logical way out," said Connolly.

(Reporting by A.Ananthalakshmi; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Gopakumar Warrier)

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文章时间: 2010-2-19 周五, 下午10:48    标题: 引用回复

QE在继续,有关今年上半年的两个结论:1)美股将有一个小高潮,2)美元指数将会double dip


TBond 的匿名买家终于公开了?一则不被主流新闻报道的重要新闻

Now the FED starts making game changing moves. Bernanke is saying he is not willing to be responsible for the biggest downturn since the 1930s, he doesn't want that on his tombstone.

财政部发债,向来是从外国投资者手里回流资金的手段,这是过去几十年来,美国的货币发行越来越多,债务越来越多,美元虽有回落,却依旧有信誉地做全球货币的主因。现在由于美国结帐的速度空前,中国终于发现这游戏不能玩了,于是前几期开始匿名买家的出现越来越频繁,直至2月18日,干脆撕开面具,由FED直接购买财政部的债,左手换右手。这,就是美方说的,中国不买,还有的是买家? 也就是说,中日几十多年外贸盈余所挣的万亿血汗美债,美联储开个会,半年之内就可以发行接近一半的票面价值。

等欧洲的债务危机一过,美元的危机就会浮现。值得警惕的是,在这个号称全球民主标杆并向发展中国家竭力推销其民主价值的头号强国,这么大的一个影响民生的事件,居然所有主流媒体都视而不见噤若寒蝉。


FOMC Statement:

Since FOMC's last meeting in January, data indicates that the economy continues to contract amid a deep recession that is gripping the entire world.

The statement was unusually glum and sounds really scared, but conditions are better than six weeks ago.

Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth


Fed adds $1.15 tln to economic fight
Last Updated: Feb 19, 2010

The Federal Reserve ramped up its battle against the economic crisis Wednesday, announcing plans to pump another 1.15 trillion dollars into the financial system in a stepped-up effort to spark recovery.

The Fed managed to surprise financial markets at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, saying it would buy up to 300 billion dollars in long-term US Treasury bonds over the next six months "to help improve conditions in private credit markets." It's a strategy known as "quantitative easing" to get more money circulating and bring down a wide range of borrowing costs.

The central bank also said it was boosting its purchases of mortgage securities by 750 billion dollars, bringing its total to 1.25 trillion dollars this year, and buy 100 billion dollars more in other federal agency debt, as part of a wide-ranging effort to revive the sagging US economy.

The announcement was made at the end of a two-day meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee, which kept its base lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.

"In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability," the FOMC statement said.

The Fed, which had been expected to keep its federal funds rate unchanged, said it "anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

The US central bank will effectively be printing massive amounts of money for these purchases to help foster recovery in the recession-mired economy, which shrank at a 6.2 percent pace in the last quarter of 2008.

With the traditional tool of interest rate policy now exhausted, the central bank is focused on extraordinary efforts to pump up credit to boost the economy.

It has already started buying up mortgage securities and corporate commercial paper, and is set to launch a new program to pump 200 billion dollars into consumer credit through the purchase of securities linked to auto, student and other types of loans.

The Fed is basically financing US deficit by buying the debt issued by the Treasury, if the Obama pushes through another stimulus package, the dollar is done.


纯属误会 写道:

发表于 : 02/16/10 22:27

最近Bernanke的续任基本可以确定他的Zirp(Zero Interest Rate Policy )会继续下去。而O8则毫
无疑问会继续饮鸠止渴式的疯狂财政扩张。这种罕见的致命组合就像让经济上了毒瘾,连他们的
鼻祖凯恩斯估计也没有任何解药。怪不得凯恩斯说过:从长期看,我们都死定了!根据经济学家
和投资大鳄Marc Faber最近的谈话,十年内超过35%的税入将用于支付国债利息,如果预言成真,
那美国真是大祸临头了。因为我们将没有钱用于其它支出,政府除了破产,可能没有太多选择。
破产前最后的疯狂可能是开足马力印钞,或走向战争。。。

还是三流演员一流政治家里根讲的好:政府不是问题的解决方法。政府就是问题的本身。俺觉得
他比三流政客一流戏子nobama强多了。

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文章时间: 2010-2-19 周五, 下午10:49    标题: 引用回复

几个参考附录:

1)2010:大市指数忽悠录 之美元走势
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6377&start=20

2)撒钱舒困,这一招真的百试不爽?
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=6574

3)整理了一个美元的思路
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=6582

4)政策和策略是东山的生命,各位炒股童鞋务必充分注意
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=6762&start=0


纯属误会 写道:

发表于 : 02/01/10 23:11
我觉摸着,Obama和他的一帮子谋士还是很精明的。眼看头期救援见效了,2010年始马上改换策略。
09年大危机,没的办法,先着眼最危险的领域,直接砸钱,救银行救车市救房产,属于中心突破自保型。
10年可以喘口气了,POMO之类的直接输血先缓一缓,改成专攻就业和拉动实业复苏,属于农村包围城市。
但是万变不离其宗的,还是大手笔撒钱,豪赌。只要这一条不变更,别无选择,只有死磕做多头,紧跟奥巴马。


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文章时间: 2010-2-21 周日, 下午8:26    标题: 引用回复

Buffett’s ‘Dangerous Business’ Grips Bond Insurers(municipal bond)

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Forewarned bankruptcies linked to infrastructure projects from Las Vegas to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, may prove Warren Buffett’s conclusion that insuring municipal bonds is a “dangerous business.”

Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second biggest bond insurer, faces as much as $1.2 billion in claims if a judge in Nevada allows Las Vegas Monorail Co., which runs a train connecting the city’s casinos, to reorganize in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The City Council of Pennsylvania’s state capital shelved a plan to sell taxpayer-owned assets to meet payments on $288 million of debt used for an incinerator funded in part with bonds insured by a unit of Bermuda-based Assured Guaranty Ltd. Harrisburg is weighing a possible bankruptcy filing.

With state tax collections last year through September showing the biggest drop since at least 1963, as measured by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany, New York, local governments are seeking concessions from creditors of public projects, including bond insurers. The moves further threaten companies backing $1.16 trillion of public debt that already face $11.6 billion of claims on collapsed securities backed by mortgages.

“It is a worst-case scenario if the dynamics of the municipal bond market change,” said Rob Haines, an analyst who covers the bond insurance business at CreditSights Inc., an independent research firm in New York. “The companies have modeled in virtually no losses.”

Insurer Reserves

Ambac, MBIA Inc. and Assured Guaranty, the three largest bond insurers, have set aside 0.04 percent of the total public finance debt they insure, or $520 million, to pay claims on municipal securities, according to regulatory filings by the companies.

Local governments are struggling with depressed property values and sales, 9.7 percent unemployment and a slowdown in consumer spending that has cut tax revenue.

Last year, 183 tax-exempt issuers defaulted on $6.35 billion of securities, according to Miami Lakes, Florida-based Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter. That’s up from 2008, when 162 municipal borrowers failed to meet obligations on $8.15 billion of debt. In 2007, 31 of them defaulted on $348 million of bonds.

“In the past, things had a way of getting worked out,” said Jim Ryan, an insurance analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “States might have stepped up and helped out, but bottom line is that the states are in trouble.”

Few Claims

Ambac sold the industry’s first insurance policy on municipal debt in 1971, for a $650,000 bond of the Greater Juneau Borough Medical Arts Building in Alaska. The business thrived, with a handful of companies obtaining the top AAA credit rating needed to guarantee debt of state and local governments and their agencies that seldom defaulted. About 8.5 percent of the market for new municipal debt was insured in 2009, down from 55 percent in 2005, according to Thomson Reuters.

For more than three decades bond insurers paid few claims, allowing them to back bond payments that were 140 times their assets. Insurers described their business as one of “zero-loss underwriting,” meaning that each guarantee was expected to result in no claims under the worst probable scenario envisioned by their models.

That track record was shattered when credit markets seized up during the worst credit crunch since the Great Depression. After rating companies warned they might strip bond insurers of their top rankings in late 2007, some companies averted a takeover by regulators by tearing up contracts on their worst- performing structured finance securities and freeing up reserves against those contracts.

Depleting Capital

Rising municipal claims may deplete the remaining regulatory capital of some bond insurers and speed intervention by regulators, said Haines of CreditSights.

Any regulatory takeover may trigger termination payments on billions of dollars of credit default contracts written by the bond insurers, a scenario that forced a government bailout of American International Group Inc. in September 2008.

David Neustadt, a spokesman for the New York State Insurance Department, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Ambac shares have lost 99 percent of their value from a high in May 2007 on speculation the company’s capital will be overwhelmed by claims on mortgage securities.

Even as losses surged on the structured finance side of the business, Assured Guaranty and MBIA have said they still have a future backing municipal bonds.

MGM Grand to Sahara

The 3.9-mile (6.3-kilometer) Las Vegas Monorail, which opened in 2004, runs between the MGM Grand and the Sahara hotels, making five stops in between.

A developer sold 7.375 percent 30-year bonds in 2000 through the state to fund construction of the driverless, elevated electric train. New York-based Ambac insured $451 million of the securities. After $5 one-way fares failed to cover both operating costs and debt service, the company filed for bankruptcy protection Jan. 13.

Ambac submitted a motion the same day to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Las Vegas challenging the petition. It said the nonprofit entity wasn’t eligible for Chapter 11 and should instead file under Chapter 9, the section of the bankruptcy code pertaining to governmental bodies.

“The Las Vegas Monorail Co. cannot now disavow its status as an instrumentality of the state of Nevada subject to the control of the governor,” Ambac said in its motion.

Bond insurers and holders have a history of being treated more favorably when an issuer files Chapter 9.

‘Automatic Stay’

“Chapter 11 imposes an automatic stay and bondholders are not required to be paid,” said David L. Dubrow, a partner in the New York office of law firm Arent Fox.

“Under Chapter 9, if you’re a special revenue bondholder, you have the right to be paid during the bankruptcy case in the same manner as though there was no bankruptcy filing,” he said.

Las Vegas Monorail has a franchise agreement with the county, and the Nevada governor has authority to appoint and remove board members, according to the Ambac motion.

“When we get too cute and too tricky and cloud public and private programs, no one can follow the money,” Chris Giunchigliani, a Clark County commissioner, said in an interview. She has opposed efforts to extend the train to the airport in a bid to boost revenue.

The monorail bonds traded Feb. 16 at an average price of 34.76 cents on the dollar.

Angela Torres, a spokeswoman for Las Vegas Monorail, didn’t respond to a request for comment. Ambac spokesman Peter Poillon, declined to comment on the case beyond the company’s motion.

‘New Ground’

“A Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing is not business as usual” in public finance, said Richard Ciccarone, chief research officer of McDonnell Investment Management, whose Oak Brook, Illinois-based firm oversees $6.8 billion of municipal debt. “This is treading on new ground.”

In Harrisburg, the City Council voted down a proposal on Feb. 13 to sell assets, including an island in the Susquehanna River, to cover debt services on bonds issued to build the incinerator, some of which are insured by Assured Guaranty’s Financial Security Assurance unit.

The city guaranteed some bond payments, which total $68 million in 2010, or $4 million more than Harrisburg’s entire proposed operating budget. Officials have said they may not meet the obligation.

“There has never been a default like this in Pennsylvania municipal finance history,” Carol Cocheres, bond counsel for the Harrisburg Authority, told a City Council meeting Dec. 14. “This is all new territory.”

Ratings Repercussions

Harrisburg was downgraded to five levels below investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service on Feb. 9. The city’s general obligation bonds were cut to B2 from Ba2 and a negative outlook on the community of 47,000 was maintained.

Harrisburg Authority 5 percent bonds insured by Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and set to mature in 2021 traded at an average price of 98.46 cents on the dollar to yield 5.179 percent. The price reached a record low of 85.72 cents on Nov. 12.

Battles over debt payments were anticipated by Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The billionaire investor set up a municipal bond insurance company in December 2007, as competitors were being threatened with the loss of their top ratings.

In early 2008, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway’s bid to take over $800 billion in municipal debt guarantees from the three biggest bond insurers, including Ambac, was rejected by the companies.

‘Dangerous Business’

A year later, he reversed course, telling shareholders in his annual letter that municipal bond insurance “has the look today of a dangerous business.”

“If a few communities stiff their creditors and get away with it, the chance that others will follow in their footsteps will grow,” Buffett wrote. “What mayor or city council is going to choose pain to local citizens in the form of major tax increases over pain to a far away bond insurer?”

Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The Greenville Southern Connector toll road in South Carolina, a 16-mile, four-lane beltway near the city’s Michelin & Cie. auto-tire plant, defaulted Jan. 1 on $200 million of bonds. Some of that project’s debt was guaranteed by an insurer owned by ACA Capital Holdings, since renamed Manifold Capital Corp., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Connector 2000 Association 5.375 percent bonds due 2038 traded at an average price of 21.24 cents on the dollar on Feb. 17, after reaching a record low of 18 cents in November. The price peaked in May 2007 at almost 97 cents.

May Choose Bankruptcy

ACA was the first bond insurer to collapse after a credit rating downgrade required it to post billions of dollars of collateral against collateralized debt obligations linked to the performance of mortgages. CDOs parcel fixed-income assets such as bonds and loans, and slice them into new securities of varying risk intended to provide higher returns than other investments of the same rating.

The toll road is considering a bankruptcy filing under either Chapter 9 or Chapter 11 to restructure debt, U.S. Bank, the trustee, said Feb. 11 in a notice.

Insurers may not escape Chapter 9 bankruptcies free of pain. Vallejo, California, which filed under the provision in May 2008, is seeking to suspend principal and interest payments for three years on debt, $3.9 million of which is insured by MBIA’s National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. unit.

‘Time Consuming’ Path

“There is a big difference between talking about bankruptcy and filing,” said Thomas McLoughlin, the chief executive officer of the unit. He said Armonk, New York-based National has yet to see a trend toward other municipalities following in Vallejo’s footsteps. “Municipal bankruptcies are very time consuming and the costs often outweigh the benefits,” he said.

The collapse of the bond insurers’ credit ratings has left all but Assured Guaranty unable to back new bond deals. That means stressed issuers can’t turn to the bond insurers to guarantee the sale of new bonds as part of a restructuring of their debts.

“One of the unspoken benefits the bond insurers provided to the municipal bond market was access to capital to refinance bond issues that were threatening to default,” Ciccarone said.

That strategy isn’t being used now.

“As of this time, the bond insurers have played a minimal role in the Vallejo bankruptcy process,” said Joann West, a spokeswoman for Vallejo.

Assured Guaranty fell 82 cents, or 3.9 percent, to $20.42 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest drop in two weeks. The shares are down 6.2 percent this year. MBIA dropped 9 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $5. It is up 26 percent in 2010. Ambac declined 1 cent, or 1.5 percent, to 66 cents. The shares have lost 20 percent this year.

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文章时间: 2010-2-21 周日, 下午8:59    标题: 引用回复

滥发纸币 2012将发生第二轮金融崩溃
《时代》杂志


世纪第一个十年的末尾,世界经济同死亡擦肩而过。崩溃于2008年的金融市场到2009年终于缓过一口气来。《时代》杂志将美联储主席伯南克选为“年度人物”,理由是他“救了”美国和全球经济。这一选择意味深长:近十年来那种“永远都有免费午餐”的群体臆想虽然破产,但政府对金融业的慷慨救助等于又在请客吃饭。伯南克被看作救世主,是因为无人愿为危机负责,都希望伯南克能把这段糟糕的历史抹去。

令金融市场和世界经济起死回生的魔法,其实就是那几万亿美元的救助资金。是那笔钱,而不是经济前景的改观救了金融市场的命。那笔钱催生了新兴市场泡沫,把全球经济硬撑起来。虽然那些钱要转化为通货膨胀尚需时日,但一旦完成了这种转化,危机的真正成本就会显现出来。如果届时世界经济结构仍不适宜启动新一轮增长周期,全世界将迎来十年滞胀。

日后回首,柏林墙倒塌后的这20年将成为历史记忆中的又一个“镀金时代”。随着冷战的意识形态斗争告一段落,这个世界一下子投入全球化的怀抱,开始不择手段地赚钱。牟利成了塑造世界的最强动力。只要哪里的工资和环境标准最低,工厂就向哪里转移。在郊区大型超市的冲击下,社区店铺纷纷倒闭。凡是存在监管的地方,就有去监管化以“效率”之名大行其道。

企业肆无忌惮地压低成本,致使收入分配中资本的份额上升,而劳动的份额下降。如果这一趋势得不到遏止,继滞胀而起的将是通货紧缩----劳动者同时也就是消费者,收入下滑令他们无力购买资本产出的过剩产品,从而对资本回报构成毁灭性打击。

金融资本主义把资本的利润美梦放得更大。它靠把资本转化成纸面资产来收取一石二鸟之效:劳动者可凭资产升值进行抵押借款以支持消费,从而带动生产性资产的回报;资本家可将其盈余转化为纸面资产,间接向消费者放贷,而无需积累物质资产----其长期积累会抑制回报增长。这一看似令大家高兴的策略组合,实际上使收入不断地从劳动向资本转移。这种虚假的繁荣孕育了自身的毁灭。不知不觉中,资本家开始为其利润美梦付出代价:他们贷给消费者的那些被过高估值的纸面资产,如今作为贷款抵押品,偷偷潜回了他们的资产组合。

收入向资本转移和资产膨胀的资产游戏玩了20年,2009年终于GAME OVER了----人们发现,金融衍生品根本不是什么可以帮助资本家毫无成本地减小风险的天才发明,而是出老千的工具。未来消费水平的下降将大幅度压低资本回报。而且,由于不能再指望资产升值来贴补低水平的薪金,劳动者会要求更高的工资。通常认为经济走弱不会带来高通胀,但这一回情况可能恰恰相反。

这场危机原本应该以另外一些措施来应对:对失败的金融机构实施国家接管、通过公开或隐蔽的政府担保融资来抑制投机、补贴就业并加强失业保障力度。对资本的定价失误是一系列泡沫的根源,因此实施改革,纠正资本定价方式,将有利于带动实体经济结构调整,为新一轮增长奠定基础。

可惜啊!“泡沫既得利益集团”有本事搞定美国政府,获得亿万美元的救助,让纳税人来埋单。他们利用危机中的公众恐慌情绪,兜售“只有救活金融业才能阻止经济下滑”的故事。其实那是个弥天大谎。直接去补贴失业,花一半钱就收到稳定经济的实效。剩下的一半就可以拿来支持经济结构调整。

但这一轮金融资本主义只不过是在苟延残喘。滥发纸币必然导致通货膨胀,虽然这个过程在全球化时代会有所减缓,但该来的还是会来。过去十年,中国靠它的过剩劳动力和过度投资,充当了全世界对抗通胀的主力军;通过产业转移,美国的制造品价格向中国看齐,这一阶段已经结束了。中国的价格就是世界的价格;由于劳动力开始短缺,地价已然畸高,中国的生产成本必然会上升。在这个货币供应激增的年代,中国已无法拽住通胀的尾巴。

2010 年,全球通胀将会抬头。各国央行将先后加息,但它们会慢一拍----加息总是赶不上通胀。它们内心深处其实还是想维持宽松的货币政策以刺激经济复苏。加息是抑制通胀预期的信号,会诱骗储户持有银行存款----其实存款是贬值的。但是犹犹豫豫地对抗通胀最终只会导致高通胀。到2012年,通胀将高得足以引发公众恐慌。各国央行会被迫急剧加息。第二轮金融崩溃将接踵而至。

2008年,世界经济同死亡擦肩而过。2012年,它恐怕没那么幸运。

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文章时间: 2010-2-22 周一, 上午11:33    标题: 引用回复

新年政治经济展望之三:动荡年华(七)
来源: 井底望天 于 10-02-21 03:39:03
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1829212

分析:美国国债的主要买家


★★★ 井底望天:一个草根经济学家的金融博格 ★★★
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog.php?blogID=36009

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上一次由纯属误会于2010-3-08 周一, 上午7:38修改,总共修改了2次
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文章时间: 2010-3-03 周三, 上午9:41    标题: 引用回复

一个很有credit的第三方,又与各国央行来往密切的非当事人。其对于经济的前瞻值得关注。

国际清算银行 B.I.S. - ex-Nazi bank now The World Central Bank -
The Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

国际清算银行的新闻发布
http://www.bis.org/press/wnew.htm
http://www.bis.org/list/press_releases/index.htm

The BIS is the most obscure arm of the Bretton-Woods International Financial
architecture but its role is central. John Maynard Keynes wanted it closed
down as it was used to launder money for the Nazis in World War II. Run by
an inner elite representing the world's major central banks it controls most
of the transferable money in the world. It uses that money to draw national
governments into debt for the IMF.

国际清算银行的机构详解
http://finance.jrj.com.cn/book/book/detail_33468.shtml

国际清算银行07年6月警告:信用狂欢可能造成30年代级别的大衰退
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1076240&yr=2008



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文章时间: 2010-3-03 周三, 上午10:15    标题: 引用回复

国际清算银行经济学家预计2010年下半年各国GDP将反弹,但危机后
以产能和投资下滑为标志
的负面影响将可能持久。


金融机构“过度冒险”行为已引起国际清算银行关注,低利率和充足流动性
导致大量热钱涌入新兴市场,目前市场上的冒险行为有向全球扩散的迹象。
此前,美联储也对这一现象表达了关切。


【2010-02-13】

国际清算银行(BIS)邀请中央银行及金融界高层人士前往巴塞尔开会。值此之际,人们担心引发这场金融危机的“过度冒险”行为正重新抬头。

国际清算银行被称为“中央银行的银行”,它在邀请函中援引有关报道称,“金融机构正回归危机前盛行的冒进做法”。

出席此次国际清算银行巴塞尔会议的私人部门银行高层包括贝莱德)的拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)、花旗集团的维克拉姆·潘迪特(Vikram Pandit)、富国银行的约翰·斯顿夫(John Stumpf)等。

高盛首席执行官劳埃德?布兰克费恩(Lloyd Blankfein)和摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)也接到了邀请,但不打算出席。

此次会议召开之时,全球经济正面临严重的不确定性,“私营部门债务和迅速增加的公共债务的威胁”以及失业率高企,给尚处萌芽状态的全球经济复苏投下了阴影。

“令人担心的是,长期保证(市场参与者)可获得廉价且充足的资金,可能会鼓励过度冒险行为,”国际清算银行在邀请函中表示。

“例如,低廉的融资成本加上陡峭的收益曲线,可能使市场参与机构容易受到未来政策利率上调的冲击——这让人想起了1994年债券市场的动荡,之前美联储结束了长时间的低利率政策。”

以往,国际清算银行通常会一年一次邀请私营银行高层前往巴塞尔参加此类会议。但近来这样的会议较为频繁,而且很少提前安排这样的议程。

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文章时间: 2010-3-04 周四, 下午2:19    标题: 引用回复

《Hutchinson专栏》科恩退出或预示美联储未来几年以宽松货币政策为主
2010年 3月 3日 星期三


路透华盛顿3月2日电---如果美国总统奥巴马喜欢伯南克的宽松货币政策,现在他要做的就是把它们固定下来.美联储(FED)副主席科恩将在6月任满离职,届时将有三个美联储理事的职位空缺,等着奥巴马来提名.若他选择伯南克宽松货币政策的拥趸,那麽至少在2013年之前,联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC)中的强硬派(鹰派)在人数上都不可能占优,这样委员会出台强硬举措的可能性也就降低了.

FOMC由12位成员组成,他们是七位美联储理事,纽约联邦储备银行总裁,以及另外11位地区性联邦储备银行总裁中的四位.这11位地区银行的总裁采取每年轮换制度,轮流进入FOMC.三位新理事,再加上去年任命的塔鲁洛以及提名连任的伯南克,奥巴马一共要选择五位美联储理事.若奥巴马新的提名人员倾向于放松银根,那麽伯南克阵营就会接近于掌控FOMC.

在地区性联邦储备银行的总裁中,堪萨斯的洪尼格,费城的普洛瑟和里奇蒙的拉克尔近期均力主收紧货币政策.但从2010-2012年,这三位立场相对强硬的官员每年只能有一位进入FOMC投票--拉克尔在2012年的投票权还要取决于他明年能否获得连任.

当然,另外一些联储银行的总裁,譬如达拉斯的费希尔,也发表过支持紧缩的观点.但除非奥巴马选择一位或更多政策立场较伯南克强硬的理事,否则至少在2013年之前,鹰派在FOMC投票中似乎难有作为.

如此看来,FOMC的委员构成可能很关键.若当前的宽松货币政策引发通胀重新抬头,或是导致债券市场动荡,那麽按照沃克尔领导下美联储在1979年10月时的套路,要求大幅收紧货币政策便也顺理成章.但如果宽松货币政策的支持者在委员会中占据主导,此类行动可能遭遇强劲阻力,或将阻止或延迟联储作出有效的货币政策应对.

奥巴马可能选择持不同观点的新理事,而且伯南克最近也试图避免在FOMC会议上出现太过明显的不同意见,这表明少数派的意见不会被忽视.不过,如果美联储的委员会里有一大堆温和派,或许无法抵挡下一轮金融市场风暴的来袭.

(完)

--译文审校 张骏

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文章时间: 2010-3-04 周四, 下午2:41    标题: 引用回复

中国经济要当“犀利哥”还是“情色局长”?
《华尔街日报》中文网 2010/03/04


最近有两位“网络红男”撩动着中国人的春心,一位是被网友称作“犀利哥”的街头流浪青年,一位是情色日记被人在网上曝光的烟草专卖局长。前者的“混搭”着装和犀利眼神让时尚圈自叹佛如,后者的醉梦人生让人得以一窥中国贪腐官员的猥亵内裤。

“犀利哥”是位不折不扣的街头流浪者,但他凭借自身的不羁装束和特立独行完成了对自己流浪汉身份的颠覆,成功实现“结构转型”,从一个本应被社会大众忽视的 “透明人”,变成一个受到众多人追捧的“时尚达人”。“情色局长”是位不折不扣的领导干部,他的仕途原本会一帆风顺、滋润无比,但日记外泄却使他从云端跌落深渊,凄惨完成了人生的“结构转型”。如果“犀利哥”不被网友挖掘,如果“情色局长”不遭网民曝光,他们很可能不会经历人生的成功和失败转型。但偶然之中蕴含着必然,转型前所选择的人生路已经决定了他们人生转型的必然结果。

中国经济目前也已到了结构转型前夕的关键时刻,是像“情色局长”那样在温柔乡中沉沦,还是像“犀利哥”那样忍一时饥寒以成就自己的独特品格,将决定中国经济在结构转型临界点到来后的命运。如果我们继续满足于拖着既有的笨重经济结构实现高增长,虽然一段时间内会像那位局长一样年年交上“桃花运”,但靠高房价聚敛来的政府收入、靠牺牲环境换来的GDP增长、靠压制社会矛盾实现的社会和谐,就会像美色、贿赂和享乐腐蚀那位局长一样毒害着中国经济的肌体,一旦经济结构转型的临界点到来,我们只能有从云端跌落深渊一种命运。

但问题是,这一临界点何时到来有很大的随机性,充满了不确定性。“犀利哥”要不是自己人生中的种种不得已,我想他断不会自找饥寒去成就自己的“时尚”人生;而中国官场中像“情色局长”一样的人物不知几多,不幸被网上曝光的却是凤毛麟角,为了避免小概率的“见光死”而自绝于金钱和美色,这似乎不符合人类的本性。世人现在醒悟到,正是欧盟多年来放纵希腊不遵守须把年预算赤字控制在国内生产总值3%以内的规定,才导致希腊目前陷入主权债务危机。但如果不是全球性金融危机的不期而至,希腊人本可以继续在地中海边懒散快活,哪里用经受财政紧缩的痛苦。

遥想上个世纪,中国经济若非在文革后沦落到“崩溃的边缘”,印度经济要不是在苏联解体后一时间无所傍依,中国很难走上对外开放的道路,印度针对美欧市场的软件和服务外包业也料难起步。当“两会”代表热议中国的经济转型时,他们内心深处的渴望是中国经济能成为“情色犀利哥”,只可惜,您“情”了、“色”了,也就没法“犀利”了,这就是生活。

(本文作者刘罡是《华尔街日报》中文网编辑兼专栏撰稿人。文中所述仅代表他的个人观点。)


=============================================================

开文角度既离奇又合理。可惜醉生梦死的人是不会主动地清醒的。中国
的出路是自己“挤”出一个经济危机来,西方人怕短期痛苦而不钉住中国了。
5年后,中国则又是一条好汉。汇率市场化已经被证明市场的无效性。只要
中国坚持汇率被掌控,西方人就没法剪中国的羊毛。中国就是全球化的赢家。

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文章时间: 2010-3-05 周五, 下午2:44    标题: 引用回复

有奶便是娘,FED底气越来越厚了。 Mr. Green

U.S. stocks traded higher Friday as the S&P 500 rose 14 points to 1137(+1.27% ).

By selling the stock options it got from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC, $16.72, +$0.32, 1.95%)
as part of the aid package it provided during the financial crisis, the Treasury received a record
$1.5 billion. That’s the most raised from a single institution from the sale of options as part
of the government’s $700 billion rescue.

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文章时间: 2010-3-08 周一, 上午11:47    标题: 引用回复

美联储宣布允许货币市场基金参与逆向回购交易
2010年03月08日


  北京时间3月8日晚间消息,据国外媒体今日报道,纽约联储周一称,该行将在美联储开始从金融系统中撤回此前注入的创记录数量的现金时增加交易对手的数量,允许本土市场上的货币市场基金参与交易活动。

  美联储今天发表声明称,增加可参与所谓“逆向回购协议”交易活动的公司之举是“为了提高这种操作的容量,从而抽离更多的储备金”。在此以前,仅有18家所谓“一级交易商”才能与美联储进行这种交易活动。声明指出,这些新增加的交易对手不具备参与纽约联储所进行的其他交易活动的资格。

  所谓“逆向回购协议”(Reverse Repurchase Agreement),是指美联储向市场出售其现时持有的债券,然后承诺于某个日期以较高价回购,用以暂时收回资金,借此控制市场上的资金流通量。

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