茶香股谈 :: 阅读主题 - 经济学:历史与现实
茶香股谈首页 茶香股谈
北美华人谈股论经学习交流的网上茶馆。
 
 帮助帮助   搜索搜索   会员列表会员列表   团队团队   注册注册 
 个人资料个人资料   登录并检查站内短信登录并检查站内短信   登录登录 

茶香股谈首页  -> 资料区 ->  财经新闻
经济学:历史与现实
发表新主题     回复主题 分页 上一页  1, 2, 3, 4  下一页
阅读上一个主题 :: 阅读下一个主题  
作者 正文
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-6-22 周三, 下午12:27    标题: 引用回复


复苏破灭 文化堕落晚期 美国现衰落征兆

英国卫报 经济版主编拉里•埃利奥特|2011-06-22,


美国上周打破了―项纪录。最新的房价跌幅表明,房地产价格较峰值已下跌 33%----这甚至比约翰•斯坦贝克创作《愤怒的葡萄》一书时31%的跌幅还高。尽管失业率没有退回到大萧条时期的水平,但 9.1%的失业率仍足以让白宫焦虑不安。


美国是个受严峻问题困扰的国家。近六分之一的人口靠政府食品券才能获得足够的食物。虽然10年前的预算还略有盈余,但现在已达到希腊的赤字级别。华盛顿的政策已处于瘫痪状态。

一些人认为,问题能轻易解决,因为美国是全球最大的经济体,又是唯一的军事影响力遍及全球的国家,它幸运地持有国际储备货币,而且还具有每隔二三十年就能使自己脱胎换骨重获新生的骄人纪录。

事实还不止这些。美国大学教育水平一流,吸引着全球顶尖学子,同时推动了尖端技术的发展。因此,美国很可能摆脱次贷危机漫长的噩梦,并变得比任何时候都更加强大。美国企业稳健的财务状况能在未来几年掀起新一轮投资浪潮。

让我提出另一种假设。2011年的美国就像公元 200年的罗马或是一战前夕的英国:一个处于权力顶峰但裂痕开始显现的帝国。

已处文化堕落晚期

罗马和英国的经历表明,形势一旦开始恶化就无力回天。以下是一些祸到临头的征兆:军事过度扩张、贫富分化加剧、经济外强中干、公民入不敷出靠举债度日、曾经有效的政策不再奏效等。居高不下的暴力犯罪率、肥胖成为流行病、沉迷色情及能源使用过度,或许在告诉我们:美国已经处于文化堕落状态的晚期。

导致帝国衰落的原因多种多样,但有些因素却不断显现。人们最初不愿承认有很多令人烦恼的事情,会出现一个(或多个)竞争对手挑战稳定的国际秩序。对西班牙来说,当时的劲敌是英国;对英国来说,对手是美国;而对美国来说,威胁来自中国。

英国在1914年后急速衰败。在1945年美苏统治的两极世界里,英国只能扮演一般角色。曾是19世纪金本位制核心的英镑迅速失去了作为储备货币的所有光辉。早在1851年的首次世博会上,就有人担心,更具野心、效率更高的德国和美国制造商会威胁英国工业霸主地位。但人们没有采取相应政策应对。1 9世纪后半叶,经济发生了微妙的变化,重心从英格兰北部转移到南部,从制造业转移到金融业,从生产转移到以投资收益为生。到1914年,不祥之兆已显现。

今天的美国在两个重要方面有别于一个世纪前的英国。它的领土要大得多,这意味着它受益于整个大陆的规模经济效应。美国在21世纪前半叶具有重要战略性的行业中占有一席之地。1914年的英国过度依赖煤炭和船舶制造这两个在两次世界大战中苟延残喘的行业,未能尽早了解新兴技术的重要性。

尽管如此,两国之间仍有相似之处。长期以来,美国经济重心从制造业转向金融业。来自世界其他地方的制造商发起的挑战与日俱增。

经济复苏希望破灭

现在让我们来看一下经济复苏与以往周期模式之间的鲜明反差。一般情况下,美国经济复苏时,由于下调利率将鼓励消费者消费,鼓励建筑业建造更多房屋,失业率就会大幅下降。然而,这次情况却截然不同。泡沫时期的建房热甚至在房价暴跌和不断上升的失业率导致人们纷纷取消抵押品赎回权之前就已经使房屋过剩了。美国房屋过剩已经到了甚至不知如何处置的程度,而这种状况在今后多年都不会改变。

过去几个月,关于经济状况糟糕的新闻不断见诸报端,人们对经济持续复苏所抱的希望因此破灭。乐观的看法已被对美国出现二次探底衰退的担忧所代替。

在房地产市场,作为美国深层次经济萎靡不振的一个征兆,二次探底衰退已经出现。减免房屋所有者的税收只能为惨淡的市场带来暂时的缓解,数百万美国人目前居住的房屋价值已经低于他们购买时所付的价钱。最新数据显示,进行住房按揭的28%以上的美国家庭处于负资产状态。美国人消费时更加慎重也就不足为奇了。商品价格上涨使问题进一步恶化,因为它推高了通胀,降低了工资收入的购买力。

宏观经济政策也证明不如以往有效。不过,这不是由于缺少尝试。美国短期利率在两年多的时间里为零,已实施两次大规模的量化宽松政策,第二次即将结束。尽管美元是储备货币,但美国过高的预算赤字仍招致信用评级机构的警告。

政策始终都是为了促进经济增长,这是因为美联储、财政部和总统的巨大恐惧是害怕重现20世纪30 年代的情景。那时,经济低迷大多是由通货紧缩的经济政策所致,该政策加剧了上世纪20年代股票市场泡沫破裂引起的大萧条。当前促进经济增长的手段收效甚微,这说明美国在结构上远不如上世纪30年代。要克服这些不足就需要打破金融对经济的束缚,采取措施提高普通家庭的消费能力,降低他们对贷款的依赖性,还需对房地产市场网开一面。总之,美国必须重新发现当初使之强盛起来的特质。但这又谈何容易。



纯属误会 2011-6-17 周五, 下午2:09 写道:
June 17, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly last week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute(ECRI), a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index(WLI)rose to 127.8 in the week ended June 10, from 127.6 the previous week, originally reported at 127.7.

ECRI's annualized growth rate fell to 3.7 percent from 4.1 percent a week earlier.


*********************************************************************************************


Soft-patch not a blip
Investors Business Daily, June 17, 2011

(IBD) - (see story link for charts)

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index:Eight Weeks of Declining Growth,By Doug Short,June 17, 2011
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php


Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke and many analysts say the economy will emerge from its current soft patch in the second half of the year as supply disruptions from Japan's disaster ease and energy prices fall.

But the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a respected independent forecaster, begs to differ.

ECRI's long leading indicator of global industrial growth suggests a slowdown has just begun. Also, the annualized growth rate of its leading U.S. index has fallen for seven straight weeks, pointing to weaker growth ahead,

"Our forecast goes directly against the popular view that growth will rebound in the second half after a brief soft patch," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.

ECRI, which has a good record of detecting changes in the business cycle, isn't predicting a recession. But, Achuthan said, "This throttling back in global industrial production growth is a slowdown that will persist for at least a couple of quarters."

Furthermore, he added, "The slowdown is not contained in the industrial sector, but rather it is going to spread out into the broader economy."

Industrial output has slowed in the U.S., Europe and China vs. year-ago levels, raising worries about a sector that has fueled the global economic recovery.

The Philadelphia Fed's regional manufacturing index unexpectedly sank 11.6 points in June to -7.7, the worst reading since July 2009. That followed a negative reading in the New York Fed's regional gauge on Wednesday.

The Fed and other economists say it's all just a blip. Oil prices spiked on Mideast and North Africa unrest. Japan's March earthquake and tsunami crippled the world's No. 3 economy, leading to global parts shortages for cars, electronics and more.

But Japan's factories are reviving while energy prices have tumbled from May's peaks, giving consumers more money to spend.

That should offset fiscal tightening and the end of the Fed's $600 billion Treasury buying program.

IHS Global Insight sees a 3.5% growth pace in the second half, up sharply from the first half's estimated 1.9%. The Fed expects full-year growth of 3.1%-3.3%.

"We can debate about when growth picks up, but our view is that growth will pick up," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Along with expected gains in consumer and business spending, the weak dollar should fuel exports, said Gus Faucher, a macroeconomist at Moody's Economy.com, which sees second-half growth of 4%.

However, the U.S. has topped 3.7% GDP growth just once in this recovery — Q4 2009's 5.1%.

"There's still a significant amount of pent-up demand out there," Faucher said.

Yet ECRI's long leading index of global industrial production — which tracks long-term drivers in some 20 countries — says otherwise. The indicator peaked at 0.7 in August 2010, predicting a slowdown in industrial activity starting this summer. The index stood at 0.1 in April, near the lowest since January 1980.

"The long leading index of global industrial production turned down well before events in Japan and the Middle East," Achuthan said. "The slowdown was baked in the cake."

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/us-economy-economic-recovery-economic-slowdown/5/20/2011/id/34673

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-7-07 周四, 上午11:58    标题: 引用回复


中国历史上的政商博弈

英国《金融时报》中文网专栏作家 吴晓波 2011-07-06 (www.ftchinese.com)


1955年,国学家钱穆在他创办的香港新亚书院专讲《中国历代政治得失》。他的课程共分五讲,分别是汉唐宋明清,最后为一“总论”。在“总论”中,钱穆提出“从这两千年的历史中,我们可以对以往传统政治,找出几条大趋势。”他共指出四条,其中第一个关键词是“集权”——“中央政府有逐步集权的倾向”,第二条关键词是“抑商”——“中国传统政治上节制资本的政策,从汉到清,都沿袭着”。

若在今日,有人专讲《中国历代经济得失》,其“总论”的两大关键词恐怕也逃不出钱穆所谓的这两条——“集权”与“抑商”。

在“集权”与“抑商”的背后,是一个无比强悍的政治权力制度安排——高度专制、大一统的中央集权制度。中国从公元前七世纪开始,以“管仲变法”为标志,开始探索国家积极干预产业经济的试验,此后多有演进,到公元前221年秦始皇灭六国,逐渐成为一个中央集权制国家,延续至今,这一政体仍然无改。

在高度专制的中央集权制度下,中国的这一部企业史,归根到底是一部政商博弈史。

当政府为了政权稳定,全面控制了重要的生产资料之后,它实际上已经成为了一个“经济组织”,它必然有自己的利益需求——用后世的话讲就是“保证国有资产的保值增值”,必然会制度性地压抑民间工商业。如钱穆所观察到,“中国传统政治向来就注意节制资本,封建势力打倒了,没有资本集中,于是社会成为一种平铺的社会。”当社会被打成散沙后,就不能有民间的力量了,从而专制的权威不会受到挑战。中国的史家常常说“均贫富”,其实,在“均”的前提之下,“均贫”还是“均富”,是一个被忽略了的问题。现代民主社会是“均富”,传统集权国家则是“均贫”。在客观上,中央集权制度必须把民间财富打散,以维持在均贫的平衡点上。在这个意义上,“均贫富”,也是集权之需要。

而更重要的是,政府在确立了国有专营制度后,必设立国有企业体系,而因产权不清晰、授权不分明等缘故,又一定会诱生出权贵经济,当权者以国家的名义获取资源,以市场的名义瓜分财富,上下其手,攫取私利。从汉唐到明清、民国,历代晚期,都是权贵资本猖獗肆虐之时,往往出现“双首现象”——国家的首相同时是国家的首富。

在国有资本和权贵资本的双重高压之下,民间商人就危如累卵,惶惶不可终日。政府与工商阶层的对立、紧张关系,贯穿于整整两千年的帝国时期,已俨然构成为一种类似胎记般的传统,那种不对等的、没有契约精神的原则似乎从来没有被尖锐地打破过,对工商业的压抑及异化是一种顽强的中国式传统。在这一过程中,知识分子阶层从来是政府的同谋,这得益于科举制度的有效护卫。

为了保全财富及获取更大的利益,趋利的商人集团“本能”地做出两个举措:第一,产业资本从生产型向消费型转移,经济成长从而失去创新动力;第二,力图跻身垄断集团,积极向政权寻租。

到了唐代,中国就出现了产业资本无法在实体经济领域有效积累的景象。唐史专家刘玉峰在《唐代工商业形态论稿》中分析了唐代工商资本的四种流向:奢侈消费、交通权贵、土地购买和转化为高利贷资本。自唐以降,这一景象几乎没有更改。进入明清之后,财富向权贵、政府和土地聚积的速度更为加快,当时出现的几大著名商帮,如晋商、徽商和广东十三行商人,其财富来源大多与授权经营垄断产业有关,官商经济模式从而根深蒂固,不可逆转。商人阶层的庸俗、归附,与大一统中央集权制度的强悍与顽固,构成为一个鲜明、对应的历史现象。

这样的结论在中外学界似乎是个公见。法国年鉴学派的布罗代尔在《世界史纲》中就很简捷地说:“中国社会,政府的权力太大了,使富有的非统治者不能享有任何真正的安全。他们对任意征收的恐惧始终挥之不去”。而中国历史学者王亚南、傅衣凌早在上世纪四十年代也断定,“秦汉以后的历代中国商人都把钻营附庸政治权力作为自己存身和发财的门径。”前些年,中国社科院哲学所的王毅在《中国皇权制度研究》中给出同样的结论:“托庇于官僚政治之下,是制度环境对于中国商人生存出路的根本性规定。”

在一个中央集权的体制下,一旦中央统治的正当性和控制力出现下降之后,会迅速地——往往以出乎人们预料的速度——蔓延出一股强大的无政府主义浪潮,而对之的控制,往往需要经历一次大的社会动荡,最终以又一次的威权专制来终结。在这样的过程中,商人阶层往往成为最早被侵害的族群,因为人们对统治者的愤怒,将首先倾泻到那些生活在他们身边的有产者身上——在他们看来,正是这些人的富有造成了社会的不公平,相对于高高在上的统治者,人们更容易痛恨身边的有产者。而更让商人阶层痛苦的是,在历史的爆裂点上,他们的处境往往是两难的:集权体制从根本上侵害他们的利益,可是当体制崩溃的时候,他们又是首当其冲的受害者。

世界上最大的贪婪,其实是制度的贪婪。制度对权力的贪婪之大,超过任何个人。在中国,这种最贪婪的制度是高度集权的统治模式。正是在这一制度之下,中国的宏观经济和工商文明呈现出早慧而后熟、先盛而后衰的发展态势。

因而,我们可以得出一个重要的结论:两千余年来,国家机器对商业的控制、干扰及盘剥,是阻碍工商文明发展的最重要因素。政府如何在经济活动中端正自己的立场与角色,工商业者如何与政府平等相处,迄今是一个危险的、甚至仍然带有某种禁忌性的话题。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-10-09 周日, 上午9:31    标题: 引用回复


美国经济100项数据



导读:知名博客Zerohedge刊文,总结了揭示美国经济已崩溃的100项数据,其中包括收入差距扩大、房地产泡沫延续、国债节节攀升、就业市场萎靡不振、社会保障体系入不敷出等内容,处处惊心,令人扼腕。

以下为评论文章全文:



美国经济举步维艰,大多美国选民却不知何故。不幸的是,主流媒体和多数政治家对美国经济的崩溃也是避而不谈。由于数十年来一系列令人难以置信的愚蠢决定,我们现在深陷腐败、贪婪、债台高筑的汪洋大海。

成千上万企业、成百万工作机会从美国流失。从大西洋海岸到太平洋海岸,贫困人口正在爆发性增长。我们实际上正在成为其它国家的笑谈。我认为,告诉美国人真相刻不容缓。只有美国人真正理解了我们正面临的问题,他们才愿意实行必要的解决方案。

以下为每一个美国选民都应该了解的美国经济之所以崩溃的100个事实:

#100 48.5%的美国人的住房享受某种形式的政府补贴,1983年这一比例不到30%。

#99 在奥巴马执政的这几年中,美国政府积累的债务超过华盛顿至克林顿总统时期的总和。

#98 自从奥巴马宣誓就职以来,平均每个家庭负担的国家债务增加了35835美元。

#97 自从奥巴马当政以来,美国国债节节攀升,平均每天超过40亿美元。

#96 如果不加变革,预计美国国债到2050年将占GDP的344%。

#95 国会预算办公室预计,美国国债占GDP比例到2080年将达到令人触目惊心的716%。

#94 2010年,美国政府支付的国债利息为4130亿美元,预计下一个十年至少将翻倍。

#93 根据最新调查,如果下个月突然失业,1/3的美国人将无力负担抵押贷款或支付房租。

#92 州政府与地方政府债务占GDP比例已达到22%的创纪录水平。

#91 1980年,政府的转移支付仅占总收入的11.7%,如今这一比例为18.4%。

#90 美国家庭如今从政府获得的收入超过他们向政府上缴的税收。

#89 根据贝莱德投资研究所(BlackRock Investment Institute)的最新调查,家庭债务占收入的比例为154%。

#88 1/7的美国人至少有10张信用卡。

#87 经济研究局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的研究显示,1980年医保花费占个人消费总额的9.5%,如今大约为16.3%。

#86 据Kaiser Family Foundation最新报告,美国家庭平均医保成本相比去年上升9%,超过1.5万美元。

#85 研究显示,处于工作年龄的美国人大约41%医疗支付有问题或正在支付医疗债务。

#84 目前没有任何医保的美国人达到4990万的历史最高水平,参加雇主支付医保计划的美国人比例连续11年下降。

#83 《美国医学杂志》(The American Journal of Medicine)公布的报告显示,无力负担医药费是60%多美国人个人破产的一个主要因素;在因无力负担医药费而破产的人群中,大约75%实际上有医疗保险。

#82 美国私立大学平均每年的学费如今上涨至27293美元。

#81 上大学的费用从1978年以来增加了9倍多。

#80 当今2/3的美国大学生毕业生都背负着学生贷款。

#79 2010年,大学生离校之日平均背负的学生贷款大约为2.5万美元。

#78 全美国学生贷款总额目前已超过信用卡债务总额。

#77 1/3的大学生最后所找到的工作根本不需要大学文凭。

#76 美国当今有10多万门卫拥有大学文凭。

#75 美国当今有31.7万服务生拥有大学文凭。

#74 美国当今有36.5万收银员拥有大学文凭。

#73 预计欧佩克(OPEC)成员国今年的石油出口首次突破万亿美元,它们的最大买家是美国。

#72 美国石油公司今年税前利润大约为2000亿美元,另外还将从政府获得44亿美元的特别税收优惠。

#71 自从1976年以来,美国对外贸易年年赤字,累计赤字超过7.5万亿美元。

#70 自从中国2001年加入世贸组织,美国每月平均流失5万制造业工作岗位。

#69 美国目前对中国的贸易赤字是1990年时的27倍。

#68 如今中国人每花1美元购买美国商品和服务,美国人便要花费4美元多购买中国的商品和服务。

#67 中国已经超过美国成为全球最大PC市场。

#66 2002年,美国对全球其它国家的高科技产品贸易赤字为160亿美元。2010年,这一数据飙升至820亿美元。

#65 2010年,美国对中国的最大出口产品为“洋垃圾”。

#64 还记得何时美国引领全球汽车与卡车市场风骚吗?不记得了吧,2010年,美国的汽车、卡车和零部件赤字为1100亿美元。

#63 自从2000年以来,10年间美国的制造业工作岗位流失了32%。

#62 自从2001年以来,美国共关闭了4.2万多家制造工厂。

#61 2000年12月至2010年12月,俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州和密歇根州分别流失38%、42%和48%的制造业岗位。

#60 1970年,美国制造业岗位占全部职位的25%。如今这一比例只有9%。

#59 普林斯顿大学教授布兰德(Alan Blinder)认为,今后20年美国还要向海外转移4000万工作岗位。

#58 如果将美国“正式”登记失业的人集合起来,其人数相当于全球第68个人口大国。

#57 美国如今领工资的人数少于2000年,尽管10年间新增了3000万人口。

#56 在1969年,95% 25-54岁的人都有工作。7月份该人群只有81.2%有工作。

#55 18-29岁的美国年轻人去年只有55.3%被雇佣,这是二战以来的最低值。

#54 如今25-34岁的美国人中有590万跟父母住在一起。

#53 经济衰退对男人的打击尤大。人口普查数据显示,男人与父母住在一起的可能性是女人的两倍。

#52 据最新调查,只有14%的28/29岁美国人对自己的财务前景感到乐观。

#51 令人难以置信的是,在十几岁的美国人中,今年夏天找到一份工作的不到30%。

#50 据研究,1969-2009年,30-50岁年龄段美国人的工资中位值下降了27%(不计通胀因素)。

#49 自2000年以来,美国流失了大约10%的中产阶级工作。2000年美国有7200万个中产阶级工作,如今为6500万。

#48 在1980年,52%的工作属于中等收入工作,如今只有42%的工作是这样。

#47 在1980年,低收入工作比例不到30%,如今这一比例超过了40%。

#46 麻省理工学院(MIT)经济学教授奥斯特曼(Paul Osterman)说,大约20%的美国雇员时薪不超过10.65美元。

#45 一半美国雇员周薪不超过505美元。

#44 自2007年以来,美国家庭收入中位值总计下降6.8%(不计通胀因素)。

#43 与2005年7月时的峰值相比,美国目前新屋销售下跌80%。

#42 新屋成交数量之低在2009年一破历史记录,2010年再破,2011年即将三破记录。

#41 在今年的某一时点,美国房产价格相比泡沫时候的峰值跌去1/3。

#40 自从房地产危机肇始以来,美国房产价值蒸发了大约6万亿美元。

#39 根据美国人口普查局的统计,佛罗里达州18%的房屋空置,相比10年前增长63%。

#38 房屋抵押止赎率过去通常徘徊于1-1.5%之间,如今飙升至4.5%。

#37 据抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)统计,不少于800万美国人目前至少欠银行一个月的按揭贷款。

#36 据Harris Interactive去年末的调查,77%的美国人是月光族,2007年这一比例只有43%。

#35 从2011年1月1日开始,婴儿潮一代陆续步入退休年龄。从此婴儿潮一代平均每天有超过1万多人达到65岁的退休年龄,这样的势头要持续19年。

#34 Americans for Secure Retirement最新调查显示,88%的美国人对“维持舒适的退休生活”表示担忧,去年这一比例为73%。

#33 1/6的美国老人如今生活在联邦贫困线以下。

#32 在1950年,领取社会保障(Social Security)福利的退休人员供养比例为16:1,如今为1.75:1。

#31 国会预算办公室表示,社会保障系统在2010年入不敷出,而过去认为至少要到2016年才会如此。

#30 美国政府如今表示,医疗保险(Medicare)信托基金耗尽时期将比去年的预期提前5年。

#29 据调查,美国50个州政府养老金支付缺口总计达3.2万亿美元。

#28 据调查,退休生活要达到舒适的标准,美国人还差6.6万亿美元。

#27 1991-2007年,65-74岁的美国人申请破产数量大增178%。

#26 美国退休者协会(AARP)对婴儿潮一代的调查表明,目前仍在工作的婴儿潮一代40%计划工作至最后一刻。

#25 去年,美国贫困人口大军又增加260万,这是1959年有统计数据以来的最大值。

#24 在2000年,11.3%的美国人生活贫困,今天是15.1%。

#23 如今5000多万美国人依赖医疗补助计划(Medicaid),占总人口的比例为1/6,1965年只有1/50。

#22 如今超过4500万美国人依靠食品券生活。

#21 依靠食品券生活的美国人自2007年以来增长了74%。

#20 阿拉巴马州如今大约1/3依赖食品券生活。

#19 如今1/4的美国儿童依赖食品券生活。

#18 据估计,50%的美国儿童成年前的某一时期将依赖食品券生活。

#17 美国儿童贫困率2010年增至22%。

#16 美国314个县至少30%的儿童面临营养不足问题。

#15 在华盛顿特区,儿童营养不足率为32.3%。

#14 超过2000万的美国儿童依赖学校的肉食补助计划。

#13 据估计,多达50万的美国儿童目前无家可归。

#12 前往食物救济所觅食的美国人数量自2006年以来增长46%。

#11 据劳联-产联最新报告,去年全美国CEO平均年薪是普通美国人的343倍。

#10 位于金字塔顶端的1%的最富美国人拥有1/3强的美国财富。

#9 50%最贫穷的美国人的总财富占全美国财富的比例为2.5%。

#8 国会百万富翁所占比例是普通人群中百万富翁比例的50多倍。

#7 美国劳工统计局数据显示,2006年12月有1660万美国人为个体经营户,如今该数字降至1450万。

#6 据最新民调,90%的美国人认为经济状况“糟糕”,1999年1月只有11%的美国人这么认为。

#5 据最新民调,80%的美国人认为美国经济实际上已进入衰退。

#4 美元正在被美联储有计划地摧毁。1970年卖20美元的商品今天卖116.78美元,1913年卖20美元的商品今天要卖457.67美元。

#3 在2008年的金融危机中,美联储向它的“朋友们”偷偷给了16.1万亿美元贷款。

#2 美联储是一架持续创造债务的机器,如今美国国债是1913年美联储创立之日的4700多倍。

#1 据CNN/ORC调查,27%的美国人从未听说过美联储主席伯南克的名字。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2011-10-26 周三, 上午9:24    标题: 引用回复

Re: 十年征战几人回, 又见同侪并马归: 2011-10大盘
forest 发表于 : 10/25/11 20:13
http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=14403&p=186061#p186061

今天的DATA有意思,还在DIVERGE。

这个图很鸟,不过股沟上的论文好像没有明确结论。经济学就是个WOODOO,加上点LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS,真是WOODOO中的WOODOO。


(from http://streettalklive.com



CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
Posted by Lance Roberts on Monday, 24 October 2011 13:43
(Source:http://streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/448.html

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-04 周三, 上午1:41    标题: 引用回复

2000-2012十二年间美股(标普500)跌13.58%,股息涨23.59%,但这期间通胀率也上涨34.69%,所以实际回报率为-20.70%。
投资经理们通常所说的股市8%年回报率实际指的是1925-1999年,也就是说这期间你投资股市的钱平均每9年就翻一番。但是新世纪
的头12年,股市投资者们的钱却少了20%。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-04 周三, 下午7:21    标题: 引用回复


美国12月制造业指数攀升至6个月新高,表明美国经济趋势已经决定性的在走上坡路

2012年01月03日


美国12月制造业指数攀升至6个月新高,11月营建开支好于预期。

经济数据面,美国供应管理协会(ISM)宣布,12月的ISM制造业指数为53.9点。据彭博社的调查,经济学家对此的平均预期为53.2点。11月的ISM制造业指数为52.7点。

从12月份的ISM制造业指数来看,当月的进出口订单都有所增长。这表明美国经济趋势已经决定性的在走上坡路。

美国商务部宣布,11月份的营建开支环比增长1.2%。据彭博社调查,经济学家对此的平均预期为环比增0.5%。10月营建开支环比降0.2%(修正值)。

在海外股市表现普遍积极的背景下,美国交易者重返市场。在中国制造业活动指数好转的推动下,周二亚洲股市大幅上扬,香港恒生指数收高2.4%。周二欧洲股市收高。德国的失业人口数量有所下降,推动德国DAX 30指数上涨。



Many Indicators Deny Recession is Imminent

Dec 23, 2011 4:48 PM

Transportation of goods are among the most reliable indicators of the economy in the near term (coming months) and they are continuing to show moderate year-over-year growth. Both trucking tonnage and rail traffic data released this week continue to show an economy that is growing steadily, albeit weakly. A negative in November was container traffic which declined indicating reduced trade.

McKinsey reported this week that corporate CEOs are more optimistic than they were during the summer, but still below the sentiment in the first half of the year.

Industrial Production continues to show steady improvement, although it is still far from recovering 2007 levels.

Housing news has improved, again only modestly, and not for the all the reasons that would indicate the economy is out of the woods. New home sales improved but still remained at levels not seen in half a century, and when adjusted for population. are at levels equivalent to The Great Depression and World War II. Existing home sales are in a clear uptrend for over a year while prices have continued to drop. The uptrend has become more clearly evident only after the NAR (National Association of Realtors) significantly reduced data from the prior years. And there was much rejoicing this week when residential construction reported improved volume, but it was a result of increased apartment construction to house all the people who have lost their homes or can't afford to buy the "bargains" that are now on the market.

And consumer confidence is still in the tank, although at levels higher than earlier this year. However, the current level of confidence is similar to the bottom of previous recessions. Perhaps the fact that, adjusted for inflation, per capita personal income is down over the past five years is a primary factor in sentiment, along with the worst unemployment problem in 75 years.

So there are few signs of a new recession. Unfortunately there are also few signs of recovery from the last one once you get past corporate profits and windfall increases in personal income at the very top.


This post has 1 comment:

dividend_growth Comments (1468)

US, UK, Japan, Germany are doing ok;

Large portion of EU is in deep recession;

China is on the brink, but government and banks have lots of reserves.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/247563-many-indicators-deny-recession-is-imminent

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-06 周五, 上午9:28    标题: 引用回复


接上帖:今天又增加一个利好news


ECONOMY

• U.S. gains 200,000 jobs in December
• U.S. jobless claims fall 15,000 to 372,000
• Services activity edges up in December: ISM




Economic Report

Jan. 6, 2012, 9:21 a.m. EST
U.S. gains 200,000 jobs in December
Unemployment rate falls for fourth month in a row to 8.5%


By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell for the fourth month in a row, the government said Friday, in a fresh sign the economy is picking up and businesses are more willing to hire.

The increase in jobs last month — the fourth biggest gain of 2011 — suggests the U.S. is entering the new year with renewed vigor. Faster hiring puts more money in the hands of consumers and usually leads to an increase in spending. That’s a big deal since consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of economic growth.

The unemployment rate edged down to 8.5% from an upwardly revised 8.7% in November, the Labor Department said.

The U.S. was expected to add 150,000 jobs and the jobless rate was forecast to rise to 8.7% from an initially reported 8.6% in November, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists.

Virtually every major industry added jobs and only the government sector cut employment, though by a smaller amount compared to prior months.

“There is strength across the board and less of a drag from the public sector,” said economist Michael Gapen of Barclays Capital. “It’s a positive report overall.”

Yet improved job growth in the second half of 2011 still falls short of what’s necessary to get the U.S. fully back on track. The economy needs to add at least 250,000 jobs a month for several years to reduce the jobless rate to pre-recession levels and boost annual growth well above 3% — a level usually associated with healthy recovery.

The economy has expanded sluggishly since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, mainly because of weak hiring. Businesses do not want to add workers unless they are assured of higher demand for their goods and services.

As 2011 drew to a close, though, companies have been hiring at a faster clip as Americans increased spending and consumer confidence rises. The private sector added 212,000 jobs in December, offset by a 12,000 drop in government employment.

Governments continued a two-year trend of shrinking their bureaucracies to balance their budgets.

The increase in jobs, however, was somewhat concentrated in sectors that do a lot of seasonal hiring.

The transportation and warehouse sector, for instance, hired 50,000 workers last month to lead the way, but 42,000 of those positions were for couriers and messengers.

In addition, the retail industry filled 28,000 positions while leisure and hospitality businesses such as bars and restaurants created 21,000 jobs.

Economists say job increases in those sectors are often reversed in January. As a result, few are predicting steady 200,000 payroll increases in the months ahead, especially given high U.S. debt levels, the ongoing European debt crisis and cutbacks in government spending.

“I think we will see modest job growth,” said economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics.

Yet other sectors that increased hiring included mining, manufacturing and health care, which are less prone to seasonal swings.

Manufacturers added 23,000 jobs to mark the first big gain in four months. The mining industry created 7,000 jobs and health care boosted employment by 23,000.

Payrolls for November and October, meanwhile, were little changed. In November, the government now says 100,000 jobs were created instead of a prior figure of 120,000. The number of jobs created in October was revised up to 112,000 from 100,000.

Wages and hours worked, meanwhile, rose slightly last month. Hourly earnings were up 0.2% to $23.24; hours worked rose 0.1 hour to 34.4.

The MarketWatch survey expected a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings.

An alternative measure of unemployment, the so-called U6 rate, fell to 15.2% in December from 15.6% in November. That rate includes part-time workers and those who recently stopped looking for work.

The economy created 1.64 million jobs in 2011, compared to an increase of 940,000 in 2010. The private sector added 1.9 million jobs last year.

Yet the U.S. still has about 5.8 million fewer jobs now compared to end of 2007. In 2009 alone, the economy lost 5.1 million jobs.

“At this rate of hiring, it’s going to take a long time to recover all the jobs that were lost,” Sweet said.

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-06 周五, 上午9:50    标题: 引用回复


接上贴,又增加一个利好。



RAIL TRAFFIC – STILL NO RECESSION HERE
5 January 2012 by Cullen Roche

http://pragcap.com/rail-traffic-still-no-recession-here

Rail traffic has remained a superb indicator over the course of the last 6 months and it’s been at least partially influential in my thinking that we were not headed for imminent recession (a call made 2 quarters ago).
The latest data from the AAR continues to confirm this outlook. Year-end readings are always a bit bumpy due to the seasonal oddities that occur around the holidays and the new year, but the data is still telling a positive story.


_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-10 周二, 上午11:03    标题: 引用回复


US Consumer in Slow Lane in The Year Ahead

http://us.mobile.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE8000FM20120101


It's up to the consumer to drive the U.S. economy and lift world growth in 2012, and the outlook is far from encouraging.

Over the past three and half years, growth in U.S. consumer spending has averaged a paltry 0.2 percent adjusted for inflation, the weakest in the post-World War II period, Morgan Stanley says.

While the employment picture is gradually brightening, wage growth is going in the opposite direction, keeping a lid on consumer behavior. Over the past year, pay for blue-collar workers adjusted for inflation fell 12 cents from the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was the steepest decline since the stagflationary days of 1980.

Pay for all workers has fallen 16 cents this year in real terms.

Consumer buying power, modest over the holiday season, remains constrained by heavy debt loads. Total U.S. household debt as a percentage of disposable personal income is down from its 2007 peak at 130 percent, but it remains well above its 1970-2000 average of 75 percent.

As a result, Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley, sees U.S. consumption remaining anemic for years to come. That will place a drag on global growth, especially in Asia, a big manufacturer of U.S. consumer goods.

"With retrenchment and balance-sheet repair only in its early stages, the zombie-like behavior of American consumers should persist," Roach said.

Consumer spending rose 1.7 percent in the third quarter, far below the 3.6 percent it averaged in the decade before the 2007-2008 recession. So it is hard to see world growth accelerating significantly until the U.S. consumer, who drives over 70 percent of U.S. GDP growth, revives.

There are other factors holding Americans' spending in check. The Federal Reserve last week reported early signs of tightening credit conditions, and government stimulus spending dries up this year. At the same time, uncertainty persists over the payroll tax cut and jobless benefits, which currently add 0.50-0.75 percentage point to GDP but are set to expire in February.

On top of that, businesses are pulling back on capital expenditure as tax breaks expire, while exports wane as a growth driver amid the upheavals from Europe. Most economists expect at best only modest U.S. economic growth around 2 percent in 2012 despite a recent batch of encouraging data.

"The year ahead is fraught with risks," said Tom Porcelli at RBC Capital Markets. "In fact, consumer fundamentals are decidedly weaker than this time last year."

If the U.S. employment report, due on Friday, shows marked improvement, it would lift optimism. But most economists expect only gradual gains of 150,000 new jobs added in December, up from 120,000 the prior month.

Although the average pace of job growth has nearly doubled over the past three months compared with the prior period, it remains well below the 200,000-250,000 mark viewed as healthy labor market conditions.

Wages may rise too. They are forecast to have climbed 0.2 percent in December after a drop in November. But buying intentions remain weak. The Conference Board reported in its U.S. consumer confidence survey for December that even though overall sentiment has improved, those in the market for big-ticket items like cars or houses mostly plan to buy used, not new -- a sign of extremely cautious attitudes.

That would explain why analysts forecast no acceleration in new car and truck sales data for the United States, due on Wednesday. They are seen holding steady at a 13.6 million annualized rate in December. Likewise, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to have ticked up only a slightly, to 53.2 from 52.7 in November.

"Still muddling through," is how Macroeconomic Advisers summarized the economic outlook for 2012.

A recent growth spurt might have given the U.S. economy some resiliency to withstand a euro-zone recession, weakening stock prices, rising credit costs, fiscal drag and a higher dollar. But the United States, and with it the world economy, remain vulnerable to shocks in the year ahead.

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-12 周四, 下午10:53    标题: 引用回复


湖南15天盖30层大楼震惊世界:经济凶兆?

世界日报|2012-01-12


中国湖南日前仅用15天时间就建成30层酒店的消息震惊世界,但根据「巴克莱资本」(Barclays Capital)新发表的一项报告,印度和中国的摩天大楼荣景,可能预示了亚洲两大经济体即将出现经济修正。

巴克莱资本认為,过去140年来全球最高建筑和即将发生的经济危机有「不健康的关联」。

现在全球施工中的124座摩天大楼,有53座在中国。摩天大楼的定义是高度超过240公尺。目前只有两座摩天大楼的印度,已经出现首波摩天大楼兴建热潮,14座施工中的大楼中还包括位於印度孟买的世界第二高楼在内。

香港「巴克莱资本」不动產研究部门主管劳伦斯说:「建筑热潮是信用过度的前兆。」他表示,从歷史上来看,摩天大楼的建造往往发生在宽鬆信用、土地价格上涨和过度乐观之际,结果常常是等摩天大楼完工时,经济已经陷入衰退。

报告显示,经济大萧条刚好发生於纽约三座破纪录的摩天大楼完工时期;华尔街40号大厦(现在的川普大楼)、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦分别在1929年到1931年间完工。


杜拜的哈里发塔(Burj Khalifa)在2010年完工,也是目前全世界最高建筑,杜拜在大楼建造时差点破產,全球经济也陷入大衰退。

然而,中国和印度的泡沫徵兆正逐渐浮现中。巴克莱资本指出,中国现在是「全球最大的泡沫製造者」,因為兴建更多更高的大楼。中国约80%的新建筑位在二线或三线城市,和已开发的珠江三角洲和长江三角洲距离遥远,巴克莱称之為「房市泡沫愈吹愈大的证据」。

另根据印度储备银行的资料,印度不动產商的不良贷款在一年来已增加约三分之一,超过2006年来平均年增率的三倍。

「巴克莱资本」说:「如果过去的资料可信,印度和中国的房市热潮反映资本的不当分配,可能造成两大经济体在五年内出现修正。」

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-19 周四, 下午1:56    标题: 引用回复


从公司预算看今年股市行情

来源: whatif2007 于 2012-01-18 21:14:18 本文已被阅读:324次


我在一家中型的semiconductor公司作财务分析员,公司的主要客户是大的半导体公司如intel。公司去年6月份作今年预算时非常保守,甚至要削减开支。可是今年年初从作预算,不但不削减开支,还要提高bonus payout。

都说半导体行业是经济的先导信号,所以感觉今年的股市应该不会差,至于有多好就难说了。

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-1-26 周四, 下午7:40    标题: 引用回复

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php


ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases

By Doug Short, January 20, 2012


The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through January 13. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -8.6, and the underlying WLI rose from an adjusted 121.1 to 123.4 (see the third chart below). The growth index had slipped lower over the past two weeks, but the latest data point is the highest (i.e., least negative) since early September.

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its entirely. I've posted this link continuously since my December 9th weekly update because ECRI continues to feature it as the lead on its website.

Achuthan's Bloomberg interview As I continue to emphasize, ECRI's recession call remains quite controversial in financial circles. The perma-bears are generally supportive of the forecast, while the predominantly bullish mainstream financial view ranges from highly skeptical to dismissive. The bullish view was supported in late December by the latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index update. One of the Board's economists forecast "continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining momentum by spring" (more here). However, the Conference Board released a working paper on December 20th (here) that discusses a major revision of its LEI that will significantly lower its optimistic reading.

For a fascinating analysis of the ECRI WLI, see these fascinating articles by Dwaine van Vuuren, CEO of PowerStocks Investment Research:

US Recession - An Opposing View (January 3)
Using the ECRI WLI to Flag Recessions (January 10)
Further Improving the Use of the ECRI WLI (January 17, with coauthored with Georg Vrba)

Earlier today Dwaine sent me the chart below, which should be studied in the context of his January 17 article:

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

For another perspective on Dwaine's indicator research, see the latest commentary from John Hussman in Dwelling In Uncertainty (January 16).

Background

On September 30th, ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.

Here is an excerpt from the announcement:

Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.

ECRI's recession call isn't based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down — before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake — to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not "soft landings." (Read the report here.)

For a close look at this movement of this index in recent months, here's a snapshot of the data since 2000.



Now let's step back and examine the complete series available to the public, which dates from 1967. ECRI's WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.



A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turned negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.

Three other three negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 34 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.

The third significant negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.

The question had been whether the WLI decline that began in Q4 of 2009 was a leading indicator of a recession. The published index has never dropped to the -11.0 level in July 2010 without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a recession onset was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped to -6.8. ECRI's managing director correctly predicted that we would avoid a double dip. The nine quarters of positive GDP since the end of the last recession supports ECRI's stance.

The Certainty and Dramatic Language of ECRI's New Recession Call

What is particularly striking about ECRI's current recession call is the fervor and certainty of the language in the public press release:

Here's what ECRI's recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.

I continue to be astonished at the complete absence of wiggle room in the announcement, nor have there been any public communications from ECRI to qualify or soften its recession call. ECRI has put its credibility on the line. As I've said before, if the U.S. avoids a recession, ECRI's reputation will be permanently damaged.

A Look at the Underlying index

With the Growth Index showing so little change over the past several weeks, let's take a moment to look at the underlying Weekly Leading Index from which the Growth Index is calculated. The first chart below shows the index level.



For a better understanding of the relationship of the WLI level to recessions, the next chart shows the data series in terms of the percent of the previous peak. In other words, a new weekly high registers at 100%, with subsequent declines plotted accordingly.


★ 很可能08年衰退还未走出并达到100%,the 2nd recession in year of 2012 就又开始了。会不会第二次发生这种"double-dip" recession情况?★

As the second chart illustrates, only once has a recession occurred without the index level achieving a new high -- the two recessions in the early 1980s, commonly referred to as a "double-dip" recession. Our current level is 14.1% off the most recent high, which was set 4.6 years ago. The longest stretch between highs was about 5.2 years from February 1973 to April 1978. But in index level rose steadily from the trough at the end of the 1973-1975 recession to reach its new high in 1978. The pattern we're now witnessing is quite different.

But What About the 1.8% Q3 GDP?

Even with the downward revision from 2.5% to 2.0% to 1.8% for the third estimate of Q3 GDP, many will see the positive Q3 GDP as a repudiation of ECRI's recession call. ECRI itself did not offer a specific date for the start of the forecast recession. A general view is that ECRI's headlights shine about six months into the future, which would make Q1 2012 GDP the critical number for evaluating ECRI's stance. Meanwhile, we'll get our first peek at Q4 2011 GDP next Friday, two hours before the latest public ECRI data is posted.

The U.S. has had eleven recessions since the earliest quarterly GDP calculations, which began in 1948. In the month declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as the beginning of the recession, quarterly GDP for that month has only been negative four times.



ECRI doesn't provide the general public with the analytical details behind its calls, but the Hoisington Investment Management Q4 Report supports a similar recession call with an extended economic analysis that includes several key topics:

soaring debt-to-GDP
contractionary fiscal and monetary policies
anticipated decline in exports
a weakened consumer
capital spending cutbacks

For some additional perspective on ECRI indicators and the apparent conflict between its recession call and the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, see my commentary The Great Leading Indicator Smackdown.

For another take on the controversial topic of recession calls, see also the interesting article by Jeff Miller, Why the Average Investor Is Bamboozled by Recession Forecasts (January 1Cool.


------------------------------------------------------------
Note: How to Calculate the Growth series from the Weekly Leading Index

ECRI's weekly Excel spreadsheet includes the WLI and the Growth series, but the latter is a series of values without the underlying calculations. After a collaborative effort by Franz Lischka, Georg Vrba, Dwaine van Vuuren and Kishor Bhatia to model the calculation, Georg discovered the actual formula in a 1999 article published by Anirvan Banerji, the Chief Research Officer at ECRI: The three Ps: simple tools for monitoring economic cycles - pronounced, pervasive and persistent economic indicators.

Here is the formula:

"MA1" = 4 week moving average of the WLI
"MA2" = moving average of MA1 over the preceding 52 weeks
"n"= 52/26.5
"m"= 100

WLIg = [m*(MA1/MA2)^n] – m




2012.01.13 ECRI US Weekly Leading Indicator 继续呈现牛市特征

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2012-2-01 周三, 上午1:31    标题: 引用回复

欧洲的问题在更大程度上是美股投资者心理上的,而非美国股市基本面性质。
计算得出,标普500成分公司的盈利仅有8%直接来自欧洲(问题是银行的exposure有多少谁也没数,爆了才会知道)

S&P500北美之外sales,全部加起来不过百分之20多。
海外赢利比例也不会高到哪里去。





从整体上讲,SP500公司的产销与赢利是近乎对等的比例


_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-3-08 周五, 下午3:57    标题: 引用回复


天涯论坛 > 煮酒论史 > [西事纪闻]

http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-no05-115596-1.shtml


沧海桑田几番变,豪门恩怨知多少——道琼斯工业指数的历史
楼主:裴明宪 时间:2008-01-20 19:36:00 点击:8652 回复:149


------------------------------------------------------------

现在就让我们回到1896 年,从最初开始观察道琼斯工业指数历史上的沧桑巨变吧。


------------------------------------------------------------

19世纪末的大牛市持续了很久,道琼斯工业指数多次创下新高,不过当时的人们对此并不在乎。

1906年1月12日,道指迎来了它的第一个整数大关——收盘价首次达到100.25点。整个华尔街一片寂静,就连《华尔街日报》自己也没有任何庆祝活动,甚至没有撰写一篇专门的报道。

多年以后,当道指突破1000点的时候,纽交所和主要投资银行进行了小规模的庆祝。

道指于1999年突破10000点的时候,从总统克林顿、财政部长鲁宾到纽交所总裁的无数头面人物都发表了评论,各大报纸于头版显著报道此事,纽交所大厅里的所有交易员都戴上了“道指10000点”(Dow 10000)的帽子。

可是回溯到一个世纪以前,当道指征服它的第一个关口时,却好像什么事情都没有发生!
  
1906年1月19日,即道指突破100点大关后的整整一个星期,道指达到了它在该轮牛市中的最高点——103点。此后,它迅速回落到57.56点,又在1909年重返100点左右,其大起大落的势头丝毫不下于1990年代初的中国股市

无论是大起还是大落,都无法引起公众的任何关注,因为股市仍然被视为骗子、小偷和杀人犯的游戏。



_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
纯属误会



性别:性别:男
年龄:99
十二宫图:天平宫
加入时间: 2009/11/10
文章: 460
来自: 北美
股金: 506
离线

文章时间: 2013-5-07 周二, 下午2:44    标题: 引用回复

The U.S. Economy Will ‘Grow’ 3 Percent By July As New Way Of Looking At GDP Goes Into Effect

美国商务部下属负责发布经济统计数据的经济分析局U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)今年
7月将调整统计方法,把研发支出、艺术原创等纳入投资部分,美国国内生产总值GDP将因此扩大3%。 Mr. Green

_________________
大道至简 锦衣夜行
返回顶端
阅读会员资料 发送站内短信
显示文章:   
发表新主题   回复主题 茶香股谈首页  -> 资料区 ->  财经新闻 所有的时间均为 美国东部时间
分页 上一页  1, 2, 3, 4  下一页
3页,共4

 
论坛转跳:  
不能在本论坛发表新主题
不能在本论坛回复主题
不能在本论坛编辑自己的文章
不能在本论坛删除自己的文章
不能在本论坛发表投票
不能在这个论坛添加附件
不能在这个论坛下载文件