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2010 Housing Market Monitor:北美与欧洲
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文章时间: 2011-4-11 周一, 下午12:16    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 写道:
1989 年普通工程师的平均收入为5-6万,现在为10-12万,加上盖房材料人工大致翻倍,所以房市有 1989 房价 x 2 的支撑。


120美元石油下的房地产
来源: 王大头 于 2011-04-09 05:32:16

120美元的石油价格近在眼前,预计今年内必定到达,甚至会短暂站稳150以上。每加仑的油价要见到4.3美元以上。
这一次,FED未必有能力提高利率,但是不得不去提高,预计今年内张两次利率,50个百分点。
油价恐怕再次重创房地产,时间点是今年的第二次加息的前后。
市场对于房地产真正的二次见底的风险明显准备不足。

电动车行业今年会真正启动
目前是韩国的LG化学和三星对于电动车的关键部件:电池模块准备的充分。
LG刚刚建成了世界时最大的动力电池的工厂,三星是第三位,日本的三洋是第二位。
LG是通用的VOLT的供应商,也是福特的供应商。
美国的厂家,从A123到HEV,都没有准备好,估计要败给亚洲的企业。

记算计也不是一步就达到潘亭的水平,而是从286开始。技术是不断进步的。
电动车,风能,太阳能确实有缺陷, 都还没有到达商业化完全成熟的阶段。
只是,目前没有去积极准备的国家以后要追,比较困难了。
这个行业,没有几个亿美元,都进不去玩一把。
美国的VC,PE一般都敬而远之,而关心于社交网络,来钱快。

世界上最大的太阳能和风能发电厂家都在中国大陆
欧洲的政府在日本核电出事后都考虑转向太阳能,德国尤甚。
目前欧洲的太阳能发电面板的80%来自中国,真的是不可思议,时间变得极快。

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文章时间: 2011-4-11 周一, 下午7:06    标题: 引用回复


Calculated Risk Chart Gallery:

http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Housing#category=Housing&chart=HousingStartsLongFeb2011.jpg


Calculated Risk Blog:
Monday, April 11, 2011
Housing Starts: Vacant Units and Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/housing-starts-vacant-units-and.html

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文章时间: 2011-4-12 周二, 下午11:16    标题: 引用回复


只要是心智稍微正常一点的人,看看这个图,再比较一下过去5年
(尤其是近两年)的SPX走势,就不难明白美国房市的艰难之处了。



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文章时间: 2011-4-12 周二, 下午11:17    标题: 引用回复


保尔森:美房地产业或继续恶化

2011年04月12日


“美国的房地产下滑并未到底,可能会继续恶化,到今年年底或者明年初才会好转。”4月11日,美国前财长保尔森如约出现在香港大学的讲
台上,一袭黑色西装,搭配鲜艳的红色领带,精神颇好,但声音沙哑。

他认为,美国的房地产很脆弱,第一季度表现很糟糕,但对美国经济的增长速度很满意。

保尔森认为美国国债是美国最大、最根本的经济问题,关键的问题在于民众希望得到好处,但是不打算付代价。这个问题越早解决越好,
因为越拖下去问题会越大,但西方的民主让这个问题不会马上得到解决。


对于美国的失业率到什么程度意味着经济的好转,保尔森没有给出具体的数字。“经济的恢复和失业率下降是两个问题,”保尔森说,“经济
一段时间就会恢复,但失业率需要过很长的时间才会恢复。”

对于中美间的贸易摩擦,保尔森认为中美关系很健康。“虽然有贸易问题,但是我们和加拿大、日本也有过摩擦,之前没有关系的时候才没
有摩擦,需要对摩擦有正确的认识。”

保尔森表示:“美国的问题不是因为中国,美国的问题需要解决,最大的危险在于把问题归咎给中国。”他对人民币的态度一如既往,鼓励人
民币汇率浮动,认为浮动汇率最有利于中国经济的发展。

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文章时间: 2011-4-16 周六, 上午2:04    标题: 引用回复

http://www.gutone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5934&p=80613&hilit=%E7%A7%91+%E7%A0%94+%E7%BB%8F+%E8%B4%B9#p80613


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文章时间: 2011-4-27 周三, 上午11:29    标题: 引用回复


Q1 2011: Homeownership Rate at 1998 Levels

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/q1-2011-homeownership-rate-at-1998.html

The homeownership rate declined to 66.4%, down from 66.5% in Q4 2010. This is the same as in 1998.





-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


See How Home Ownership Continues to DROP

April 27 2011, By Wall St. Cheat Sheet


The big white elephant in the US Economy continues to be real estate (NYSE:IYR). Ironically, the continued decrease in
home ownership means we are healing and reverting to the historically supported mean.

Today the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau announced home ownership

Homeownership Rate. The homeownership rate in the first quarter 2011 (66.4 percent) was lower than the first
quarter 2010 rate (67.1 percent). In the South and West, the homeownership rates were lower than a year ago,
while the Northeast and Midwest showed no significant change from the corresponding first quarter 2010 rates.

Rental Vacancy Rate. The rental vacancy rate in first quarter 2011 (9.7 percent) was lower than the first
quarter 2010 rate (10.6 percent).

Homeowner Vacancy Rate. The homeowner vacancy rate in first quarter 2011 was not statistically different from
the first quarter 2010 rate (2.6 percent each).



For the first quarter 2011, the homeowner vacancy rate is higher in the South than in the Northeast and West, but
not statistically different from the rate in the Midwest. The homeowner vacancy rate in the Northeast was higher than
in the first quarter 2010, while the rates in the Midwest, South, and West were not significantly different from a
year ago.

For the first quarter 2011, the homeownership rates were highest in the Midwest (70.4 percent) and lowest in the
West (60.9 percent). The homeownership rates in the South and West were lower than a year ago, while the
rates in the Northeast and Midwest were not statistically different from their corresponding first quarter 2010 rates.

The homeowner vacancy rate in principal cities (3.3 percent) was higher than in the suburbs (2.4 percent) and
outside MSA’s (2.3 percent). The 2.4 percent and the 2.3 percent were not statistically different from each other.
The homeowner vacancy rates in principal cities, in the suburbs, and outside MSA’s were not statistically different
from the corresponding first quarter 2010 rates.

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文章时间: 2011-5-05 周四, 上午10:21    标题: 引用回复

It's official: Home prices have double dipped
nationwide, now lower than their March 2009 trough,
according to a new report from Clear Capital.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/clear-capital-home-price-index-shows.html



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文章时间: 2011-5-14 周六, 上午10:04    标题: 引用回复

Posted in Chartology, Weekly Kickstart |
Summary for Week Ending May 13th
May 14th, 2011

This was a light week for economic data. As expected, house prices continued to decline in March, the trade deficit increased in March due to higher oil prices, and inflation picked up a little, mostly due to - what else? - higher oil prices in April.

The good news is oil prices have fallen in May, and (WTI futures) are now under $100 per barrel (WTI futures were close to $114 per barrel at the end of April). Meanwhile the ten year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.19%, and mortgage rates are at the low for the year (the 30 year conforming is at 4.63%).

Below is a summary of economic data last week mostly in graphs:

• CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.5% in March, Prices now 4.6% below 2009 Lows

Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts.

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows Year-Over-Year Decline for 8th Straight Month

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index is down 7.5% over the last year, and off 34.8% from the peak.

This was the eight straight month of year-over-year declines, and the ninth straight month of month-to-month declines. The index is now 4.6% below the previous post-bubble low set in March 2009, and I expect to see further new post-bubble lows for this index over the next few months.

如果全美房价指数顺势再跌1/3,FED还能用什么好招来拯救市场?
本周的房市数据,显示两轮QE都帮不到稳定房价。Case-Shiller Indices重拾危险跌势。


任何反馈系统在上升或下降时一般都会过冲(overshoots). 所以房地产市场还远未到底。这是最简单可靠的判断。这张图再明了不过
了。当然,只要房事还在继续,房市也不会完全阳萎,局部还会出现暂时(transient)的亢奋。

我看接下来几年还会再现一个mini recession(6个月到1年期的那种),房价要跌到2015

Real House Prices


The graph above shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index (through Q4 2010), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 (through February release) and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March release) in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter).

In real terms, the National index is back to Q1 2000 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to December 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to December 1999.

Price-to-Rent RatioThe third graph is a price-to-rent ratio using the Case-Shiller Composite 20 (through February) and CoreLogic House Price Index (through March) (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Composite 20 index is just above the May 2009 levels (and about at November 2000 levels), and the CoreLogic index is back to December 1999.

Nominal House Prices







纯属误会 时间: 2010-2-16 周二, 下午8:52 写道:

这个。。。房市没完,房价还有的跌。。。


[/b]
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上一次由纯属误会于2011-5-16 周一, 下午8:00修改,总共修改了1次
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文章时间: 2011-5-15 周日, 上午2:35    标题: 引用回复


美国这房市

投资理财 2011-05-14 20:11:57
http://studley.blog.163.com/blog/static/1120492622011414102041212/


以曼哈顿为圆心,100公里为半径画个圆,大概住在其中任何一处都可以到曼哈顿上班。(当然大西洋除外。不过如果谁真的愿意当个船户,这也未尝不可。)从上海陆家嘴金融区出去100公里差不多就是苏州。我好像还没听说有人住苏州天天百里奔袭陆家嘴的。住在高速公路、铁路双通的苏州不实际,那么其他很多 100公里圈内的地方更是不可能了。比起华尔街上年薪百万美元却住在几十公里以外的美国人相比,年薪百万人民币的大概住的不是上海市中心的就屈指可数了。所以从供求关系来讲,美国的房子实在缺乏疯涨的理由。

不过美国人敢借钱的魄力则是咱们中国人不可想像的。银行里连五万都没有却要买百万豪宅的时常听到,最近还碰到几个10万左右的房却抵押借了十五六万的美国房东。反正房市一涨,美国人就兴奋、银行也疯狂。要知道有个什么风吹草动,联邦政府不得不出手相救,因为这些人手上的选票。结果听听是大量房子被没收,不过那些“百万负翁”其实也没有亏多少,当初买房还捞进钱的人仔细算算弄不好还赚了。亏的倒是那些老老实实、精打细算的本分人。联邦政府的紧急救助资金里说穿了一大部分就是这些老实人被迫交的份子钱。所以美国的房市倒也有疯涨的基因。

身在美国,房子这东西买还是不买确实是个问题,不过这倒不是个太困难的问题。对口袋还算殷实的来讲,其实自住房市价涨跌都是浮云,在好区买个实惠房一定不会大错。判断好区的标准倒是中美都一样,除了邻里、学区之类以外,其实交通便利还是很重要。虽说美国交通基础设施发达,不过不同的地方还是有区别。房市好的时候,大家哄抢时这些区别没什么,但是房市一走软,这些区别就显现出来了。同为好区,交通便利的实在要卖,愿意亏点钱也就卖了。而交通不方便的,即使愿意割肉也很难卖掉:有钱的人更挑剔,愿意接手的口袋里没钱又借不到贷款。

而至于投资房,一定就是老老实实以现金流讲话:炒房的标准就是靠租金就能保证一定回报。如果房子不在太差、太荒僻的地方的话,一个简单的标准就是年租金达到房价的十分之一。这样的投资房在房市差的时候就是一个高回报率的债券,而当房市亢奋的时候就是一个随时可以套现的热门股。而一门心思指望房市暴涨来赚钱,而平时却在倒贴的事,运气好时做成一笔是一笔,但绝对不是长久之计。其实美国人也是人,买得起买不起房都得住,而且都要住得好。房价涨跌没有底,租金波动却有度。就拿康州的斯坦福市来讲,因为有许多大公司、大银行,所以绝对不是一个“死”区。不过就是因为学区没有附近的几个镇好,所以很多公寓跌价超过一半,不过租金却波动很小。趁低买进一个10%回报的“债券”房,就安安心心地等下次房市发高烧倒也是一件不错的事。

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文章时间: 2011-5-16 周一, 下午8:08    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 时间: 2011-5-14 周六, 上午10:04 写道:
如果全美房价指数顺势再跌1/3,FED还能用什么好招来拯救市场?
本周的房市数据,显示两轮QE都帮不到稳定房价。Case-Shiller Indices重拾危险跌势。

任何反馈系统在上升或下降时一般都会过冲(overshoots)。所以房地产市场还远未到底。这是最简单可靠的判断。
这张图再明了不过了。当然,只要房事还在继续,房市也不会完全阳萎,局部还会出现暂时(transient)的亢奋。

我看接下来几年还会再现一个mini recession(6个月到1年期的那种),房价要跌到2015

纯属误会 时间: 2010-2-16 周二, 下午8:52 写道:
这个。。。房市没完,房价还有的跌。。。



Six Million Foreclosures By 2014?
May 16th, 2011
http://housingdoom.com/2011/05/16/six-million-foreclosures-by-2014/

While I think that uncertainty in the economy makes forecasting trends in housing a dubious “science”, I do now and again see a projection that seems probable. One of the more plausible ones that I’ve read lately is by Andrew Butter. Butter is Managing Partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm. Butter looked at data from RealtyTrac and concluded: [Hat tip Freedom's Phoenix.]

Since the start of 2005 to the end of 2010, three million seven-hundred thousand American families have been kicked out onto the street. At an average of 2.3 people per household that’s 8.5 million Americans who have been directly, physically, affected by the popping of the US Housing Bubble, so far.

I estimate that by the time the “dust” settles on they myriad of personal tragedies that resulted from the misguided policies of the Clinton and more importantly the Bush era, to “promote” (i.e. subsidize) home ownership, six million American families will have been “de-housed” , that’s 14 million personal tragedies.

The last time I looked at [foreclosure trends] was in September 2009 using data up to June 2009.

At that point, after taking into account the dynamics of the foreclosure process, and the backlog that was obvious even then (in 2007 it took an average of 151 days from the 1st notice until the occupants were kicked out, in 2010 it took an average of 400 days), I estimated the cumulative would be six million. One and a half years later, the dynamic is pretty much in line with that forecast, although I reckon the total by end 2016 might reach 6.5 million.

The good news is that it looks like America has passed the half-way mark of that sad process, the bad news is that it looks like it will take at least until 2014 and perhaps a few years after that, for all of the “mal-investments” that were made, particularly in 2006 and 2007 to get “washed-clean”.



I thought the rest of Butter’s article was worth a read, although I differed with him on a couple of points. One was his “14 million personal tragedies” comment. Getting out of a place you can’t afford and into a place you can is not a tragedy, it’s a blessing. It’s only a tragedy when that more affordable housing is on the street somewhere.

I also disagreed with this:

House prices in USA will not return to their “fundamental” until 2016 or so, which means that for anyone with money, now is a great time to buy.

If Butter is correct, wouldn’t that make 2015 a better time to take the plunge?

One thing is certain. The REOs, for now, just keep on coming.

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文章时间: 2011-5-18 周三, 上午12:26    标题: 引用回复


U.S. Housing Down 80% When Priced in Gold

by Mark on March 11, 2011

We all know how far U.S. housing prices have fallen. And they are still falling. But that’s against the weakening dollar. For
another perspective, here’s a chart showing the decline in another currency: gold. This chart presents the median single-
family home price divided by the price of one ounce of gold. In gold, the price of the median single-family home is down 80%
from its 2001 peak.



Source: Chart of the Day
http://www.chartoftheday.com/

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文章时间: 2011-5-21 周六, 下午11:32    标题: 引用回复


Wealthy Leaving Las Vegas Mansions as Foreclosures Spreading

By John Gittelsohn - Bloomberg



Las Vegas Mansions Deserted as Foreclosure Pain Spreads


April 26 (Bloomberg) -- A growing number of high-end homes are selling at a loss or facing repossession by lenders in Las Vegas, which already has the highest rate of foreclosure filings among large U.S. cities. The wave of defaults that began with subprime borrowers and the unemployed has spread to upscale homeowners who see no point of staying even if they can afford to.


April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and realtor Zar Zanganeh talk with Bloomberg's John Gittelsohn about the city's real estate market. In the 15 months through March, at least 25 houses in the Las Vegas area changed hands for more than $3 million, with at least seven doing so through foreclosure or by selling at a loss, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and Clark County property records. (Source: Bloomberg)


Realtor Zar Zanganeh stands in the foyer of a luxury home previously owned by actor Nicolas Cage in Las Vegas. Photographer: Ronda Churchill/Bloomberg


The panoramic view from an infinity pool in the backyard of actor Nicolas Cage's former Las Vegas home. Photographer: Ronda Churchill/Bloomberg

The master bedroom of Nicolas Cage's former home. Cage bought the seven-bedroom house for $8.5 million in 2006. By January 2010, it was in foreclosure. Photographer: Ronda Churchill/Bloomberg

Nicolas Cage, the Oscar-winning star of “Leaving Las Vegas,” bought a seven-bedroom home with a panoramic view of the city’s casino-lined Strip in 2006 for $8.5 million. By January 2010, it was in foreclosure.

The next owner, who property records show paid $4.2 million, has put the house on the market for $7.9 million -- an “unrealistic” price, according to Zar Zanganeh, the broker handling the listing.

“It’s sad,” Zanganeh said, his high-heeled boots clacking on the marble floor as he gave a tour of the 14,000-square-foot (1,300-square-meter) mansion featuring a six-person steam shower and a closet the size of a small apartment. “There’s a lot of inventory, a lot of homes like this waiting for an owner.”

7030 Tomiyasu Ln, Las Vegas, NV 89120

A growing number of high-end homes are selling at a loss or facing repossession by lenders in Las Vegas, which already has the highest rate of foreclosure filings among large U.S. cities. The wave of defaults that began with subprime borrowers and the unemployed has spread to upscale homeowners who see no point of staying even if they can afford to.

In the 15 months through March, at least 25 houses in the Las Vegas area changed hands for more than $3 million, with at least seven doing so through foreclosure or by selling at a loss, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and Clark County property records. In 2009, 14 homes sold for more than that amount, with one trading at a loss.

‘A Sucker’

In the first quarter, 30 Clark County homes with loans exceeding $1 million were repossessed by banks or bought by third-parties in foreclosure sales, up from 20 homes a year earlier, according to www.ForeclosureRadar.com, a Discovery Bay, California-based company that tracks defaults. Short sales, in which the bank agrees to accept less than the loan balance, and bank-owned properties accounted for about three-quarters of all home sales, according to the Las Vegas Realtors.

“You feel like a sucker if you’re paying a $5 million mortgage on a house that’s worth $2 million,” Zar Zanganeh, 28, said while showing the grounds of an 11-acre Las Vegas estate built by Prince Jefri Bolkiah, brother of the Sultan of Brunei. “These days, there are no traditional sales. They’re all short sales or bank-owned.”

The estate -- with 18 bedrooms, 36 bathrooms, a 20,000- bottle wine cellar, an 11-car garage and air-conditioned stables for 10 horses -- sold for $14 million in 2004 to Eric Petersen, who owned Consumer Credit Services Inc., a Las Vegas-based catalog-merchandising company that closed in 2008. Petersen, 44, said he spent $20 million to make the estate habitable.

Giving Up

It’s back on the block for $25 million -- $9 million less than his investment -- with an offer “for considerably less on the table,” Petersen said in a telephone interview from Las Vegas. He has slashed the listing price four times since October from an initial $37.5 million.

“I gave up on Vegas,” Petersen said. “There’s no opportunity for anything in this town that I can see.”

Another listing with Zanganeh’s firm, Luxe Estates Collection, is a never-occupied, bank-owned mansion overlooking a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course in the gated Ridges community west of Las Vegas. The asking price is $3 million for the 8,550-square-foot house, which was repossessed in 2010 and had a $3.2 million mortgage from the Community Bank of Nevada, a lender seized by regulators in August 2009.

About 100 homes in the county are listed for $3 million or more, according to the Las Vegas Realtors, a five-year supply at the current sales pace.

‘Rolled the Dice’

In Nevada, 23 percent of delinquent borrowers said they “strategically defaulted,” or walked away from their homes by choice rather than necessity, according to a January report by the Nevada Association of Realtors.

“It’s folks that feel the hopelessness of it all,” Rob Wigton, chief executive officer of the state association, said in a telephone interview from Reno. “They’ve rolled the dice and lost.”

The population of Clark County, home of Las Vegas, has fallen by about 16,000 from its estimated high of 1.97 million in 2008, according to the government-funded Nevada State Demographer. Almost 15 percent of homes in the county -- 125,000 residences -- were vacant, according to the 2010 Census, following a construction boom in the last decade that peaked with 39,000 housing permits issued in 2005.

Las Vegas home values plunged 58 percent from the 2006 high-water mark through February, the biggest drop of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index, and are the lowest since June 1999, the group said today in New York. Prices fell 7.4 percent in March from a year earlier to a median $125,950, the Las Vegas Realtors reported April 8.

70% Underwater

Almost 70 percent of Las Vegas-area homeowners with mortgages were underwater at the end of 2010, meaning they owed more than the value of the property, according to CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX), a Santa Ana, California-based real estate information company. Among cities with a population of more than 200,000, Las Vegas has led the nation in the pace of foreclosure actions since November 2009, with one of every 31 homes receiving a filing in the first quarter of this year, RealtyTrac Inc., an information provider in Irvine, California, reported April 14.

About 20 percent of Las Vegas homeowners seeking short sales owe at least $750,000, said Jamie Cogburn, a Las Vegas plaintiff’s attorney who said he has handled 350 such sales and is working on 200 more. One client is a doctor with a home now valued at about half of its $1 million mortgage, Cogburn said. The doctor earns enough to save for a 20 percent down payment on his next home within a few months at current prices, he said.

“People with a higher income can go buy another house,” Cogburn said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got to cut your losses at some point, just like with a stock.”
Four Weekends

Cage, who won an Academy Award for 1995’s “Leaving Las Vegas,” in which he portrays an alcoholic who drinks himself to death in the city, stayed in the house now being marketed by Zanganeh for four weekends, according to the broker.

The actor sued his manager in October 2009 for placing him in “numerous highly speculative and risky real estate investments, resulting in Cage suffering catastrophic losses,” according to court filings. The manager, Samuel Levin, countersued, saying Cage ignored advice and “set off on a spending binge of epic proportions,” acquiring 15 homes, four yachts, an island in the Bahamas, a Gulfstream jet and millions of dollars of jewelry and art, according to a November 2009 complaint in state court in Los Angeles County. The case was settled out of court in August.

Cage, 47, who also starred in the 1992 film “Honeymoon in Vegas,” “is working and not doing press at this time,” his publicist, Samantha Hill, said in an e-mail. He was arrested in New Orleans on April 16 for domestic abuse and public drunkenness after arguing with his wife about the address of a house they are renting, according to a statement by the city’s police department.

Sales Pick Up

Las Vegas’s economic collapse has made it hard for many executives and business owners who own mansions to keep up with their mortgages, said Brian Gordon, a partner at Applied Analysis LLC, an economic-consulting firm in the city.

“People on the lower end were forced out a long time ago,” he said. “People on the high end had a longer staying power. Now they’ve chewed through their resources.”

While high-end homes fall in price, total residential- property sales have accelerated, rising 8.2 percent in March from a year earlier to 4,316 units, the Las Vegas Realtors reported. More than half of this year’s purchases were all-cash transactions, a sign that investors are finding bargains at the low end of the market, said Robert Lang, a professor of sociology at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Making Lemonade

“Prices are below the cost of materials and labor,” said Lang, also a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “If you’re betting the U.S. economy won’t go back to Armageddon, you might see one-third appreciation if you buy now.”

Las Vegas’s affordable housing and warm weather will be the theme of a promotional campaign the city plans to use to attract out-of-town investors and potential new residents, Mayor Oscar Goodman said.

“We’re going to make lemonade out of this ‘crisis’ by promoting our foreclosures here,” Goodman, who’s stepping down in July after 12 years in office, said during an April 5 campaign party for his wife, Carolyn Goodman, a candidate to succeed her husband.

The city, he said, will be “showing the opportunities to people who are freezing to death in the middle of the country in the worst winter imaginable -- that they can come out here and buy a home at one-third what it cost five years ago and have a wonderful quality of life.”

To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net



Wealthy Leaving Vegas Mansions as Foreclosure Pain Spreads

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文章时间: 2011-5-24 周二, 下午12:21    标题: 引用回复


国际买家撑起美国房市

2011-05-24


由于美国房价的持续下跌,更由于美元汇率的持续疲软,愈来愈多的国际买家进入了美国房地产市场,在一定程度上为美国房地产市场提供了支撑,而且这种局面预计还将持续相当时间。

现金购买

现在很多美国人都发现,自己的邻居当中颇有一些并非同胞,而是加拿大人,或者是中国人。

美国房地产市场,尤其是高端市场,正在获得国际买家的支持。如果一个价位对于美国买家来说是值得考虑的话,那么对于国外买家而言,再考虑到汇率因素,简直就是跳楼大甩卖了。

全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors,简称NAR)发布的一份报告显示,在截至2011年3月的十二个月当中,非美国客户已经在美国住宅市场上花掉了大约410亿美元。
此外,那些拥有六个月以上居留签证的人们也花掉了大约410亿美元。合计起来,这已经是美国房地产市场总规模的大约8%了。

国际买家在高端房市是表现得更加活跃。报告提供的数据显示,非美国买家购房的平均价格是31万5,000美元,而美国买家的平均价格是21万8,000美元。

国际买家相对而言更倾向于付现金,这在一定程度上也是因为他们要获得美国的融资,所面临的困难太多。报告称,62%的国际买家都是现金全款的。事实上,近三个月当中,约有三分之一的二手房是以现金形式售出的。

有趣的是,还出现了另外一个倾向,即愈来愈多的国际买家也开始对低端市场感兴趣了。NAR指出,最近一年当中,大约45%的国际买家购房价格都在20万美元以下,而这一比例较之2007年的28%显然有很大提升。

疲软美元

NAR报告还写道:“大约80%的经纪人都报告称,美元汇率对海外销售额有相当的影响。”

“美元一方面相对于欧元贬值,一方面相对于其他主要货币也都呈现贬值态势,因此,美国房市在海外国买家眼中也就变得愈来愈有魅力了。”

NAR和人口统计局提供的数据显示,在截至3月底的一年当中,美国的新屋和二手房价格下跌了大约5%。这就意味着,任何一个在美国买房的人都可以享受到5%的折扣了。

事实上,如果将美元折合外国货币,大多数外国买家享受到的折扣还要大。在欧洲买家眼中,他们获得的折扣是9%。在中国买家那里,折扣是8.6%。在加拿大买家那里,折扣是9.3%。

更加需要看到的是,在世界上其他主要地区,房市价格都是较为稳定,或者是上涨,这就进一步增加了美国的相对魅力。

全球房地产顾问公司Knight Frank LLP提供的数据显示,在许多亚洲国家和新兴市场国家,房价都是窜升的态势,因为这些国家的政府都在努力打压房价的膨胀。

比如说,全部以当地货币计算,在2010年,香港房价涨幅20.1%,拉脱维亚16.9%,以色列16.2%。

Knight Frank的资料还显示,同期之内,美国的房价却下跌了4.1%,而且下半年的下跌速度还要超过上半年。整体而言,2010年,全球房价上涨2.8%。

在2012年,局面会向怎样的方向发展还难以逆料,因为现在分析师们的意见也出现了分裂,难以就美元对特定货币该强势还是弱势达成共识。

不过,整体而言,大多数人还是相信美国房价会进一步下跌。这种背景之下,国际买家在美国房市上就必然还是个重要角色。









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文章时间: 2011-6-08 周三, 上午9:53    标题: 引用回复


美国房价九年最低点 将进一步下跌

网易财经|2011-06-08


标准普尔公司日前发布的研究报告显示,今年3月份全美20个大城市房价指数已降至2003年以来最低水平。在经济复苏持续两年以后,美国房地产市场仍未走出困境。

二次探底特征明显

标准普尔报告显示,3月份标普/凯斯-席勒(Case-Shiller)全美20个大城市房价指数环比下跌0.3%,同比下跌3.6%,创2009年11月以来最大跌幅,同时该指数也降至2003年3月以来最低点。

3月份,全美20个大城市中有13个城市房价出现环比下降,跌幅居前的是夏洛特、北卡来罗纳和明尼阿波利斯;19个城市房价出现同比下降,其中明尼阿波利斯的跌幅高达10%,仅有华盛顿房价上涨4.3%。一般来说,同比数据被视为能够更好反映价格走势的指标。

从美国全国来看,第一季度全美房价同比下跌5.1%,环比下跌4.2%,衡量全国房价水平的指数已经降至2002年第二季度以来最低点。比2006、2007年房价峰值相比,迄今美国房价累计跌幅已经接近33%。

“最新报告证实全美房价正在经历二次探底。”标普公司凯斯-席勒指数委员会主席布利策(David Blitzer)表示,房价仍在下行周期中,且没有任何缓和迹象。

自 2007年房市泡沫破灭后,美国房地产市场跌势一发不可收拾,并在2009年初降至谷底。随后,在美国政府推出的对初次购房者减免税费的优惠政策激励下,美国房市在2009年4月至2010年初出现短暂回暖,房价曾连续数月实现上涨。而在2010年4月政策逐步退出后,美国房市再度显露疲态,房价也跌跌不休。

对此纽约决策经济学公司执行董事里希(Cali Rich)指出,过去12个月房价的跌幅几乎抹去了此前12个月的涨幅。不过,他认为尽管房市困境加剧,但并未陷入绝境。

在价格持续下跌的同时,全美住房销量也在下滑。全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors,NAR)日前公布的数据显示,4月份全美二手房销量环比下跌0.8%,按年率计算为505万套。但需要格外注意的是,4月份全美二手房签约销量环比骤降12%。这一指标衡量的是签约率,通常较买卖正式完成提前1-2个月。

衰退程度前所未见

若与历史数据进行对比不难发现,本轮美国房地产市场的衰退程度已经超过此前任何一轮。近期来看,上世纪70年代以来美国房市经历过三次较大规模衰退,其中1979-1982 年间房价下滑14%,1988-1995年间下滑6%,而2006年至今美国房价已经下滑超过33%。

即便与上世纪30年代大萧条期间房市的表现相比,这一次的衰退程度也尤甚。大萧条时期美国房价从最高点到最低点的跌幅约为31%,且房价恢复到正常水平花费了将近20年。

美国房市缘何迟迟难以走出困境,分析人士认为,“影子库存”的大量存在以及经济复苏进程缓慢是造成房市动力不足的两大因素。

首先在供给方面,美国房屋存量仍然大幅超出正常水平,不但给房价带来压力,而且阻滞了建造商的新建房屋开工计划。NAR上周公布的数据显示,4月份被称为 “影子库存”的止赎房屋数量约为387万套,高于10年均值的300万,预计这些房屋全部出清需要9.2个月,远远高于6.5个月的10年均值。另据业内机构预计,美国超过90天未售出的存屋数量已经超过180万套。

其次在需求方面,美国经济复苏力度仍显不足,一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速仅为1.8%,这使得就业市场压力很难尽快缓解,预计失业率仍将在9%的水平上下徘徊。就业市场持续低迷,抑制了消费者对住房的需求,造成房价下跌。反之,房价的进一步下跌令财富缩水的住房持有者在消费方面更加迟疑,削弱了美国经济复苏的动力。两者相互作用,已经形成一个难以突破的怪圈。

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文章时间: 2011-6-12 周日, 下午12:58    标题: 引用回复


HPI (Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index)


我对过去10年的SP500数据和CPI, interest rate, real GDP growth, unemployment rate, EURO/USD, USD/YEN, Gold,
HPI ,OIL的关联性做过一个很粗浅的回归分析,SP和HPI关联最高,和汇率的关联排在CPI, Interest Rate, GDP growth之后。

巴菲特很乐观的,他都讲地产要到2012年底, 他08年10月喊WFC 20便宜,结果2009.3到了7元,他看底早了半年,那2013
再起来是很正常的,那时SP应能有牛样的行情吧。


--------------------------------------------------------

美国楼市面临永久性崩溃 银行业旧毒新债难翻身
中证网|2011-06-11

一个月前在股东大会上,美国银行首席执行官莫伊尼汉对投资者这样表示:美国银行仍在竭力削减房地产不良贷款,并认为年内房价复苏将令该行避免在抵押贷款上出现新的损失。

如今看来,这一预期似乎过于乐观。基于近期公布的一系列疲弱数据,业内人士普遍认为,美国房地产市场短期内走出低谷的可能性很小,年内房价恐继续下跌超过10%。事实上,由于低估房价跌幅,美国银行在过去两个季度中已为此多支出30亿美元。

美国银行所处的窘境绝非个案。今年一季度,为应对房价“下滑压力”,美国第三大银行花旗集团就出售了11亿美元问题贷款。

在金融危机全面爆发三年后的今天,美国银行业在房贷及相关衍生品业务上的噩梦仍未终结。这不禁令人怀疑,美国房地产市场会否陷入“房价下跌-止赎量上升-房价进一步下跌”的怪圈,前次危机残留的巨额衍生品余毒“旧债”加上止赎潮“新愁”,会否成为引爆新危机的“火药桶”……这些问题成为笼罩在美国经济头顶上的阴云。

房地产复苏难望

与2006年、2007年房价峰值相比,迄今美国房价累计跌幅接近33%,衰退幅度超过上世纪三十年代的“大萧条”时期。创建标普/凯斯-席勒美国房价指数的经济学家罗伯特・席勒悲观地表示,未来五年美国房价进一步下跌10%,也“完全不会让人感到意外”。

罗素投资首席市场策略师史蒂芬・伍德在接受中国证券报记者采访时甚至表示,美国房屋市场也许面临永久性崩溃,并对就业市场产生严重影响,预计失业率回到崩溃前水平的机会甚微。

房地产市场长期低迷的原因何在?从供给方面来看,美国房屋存量仍然大幅超出正常水平,“影子库存”大量存在成为压在房市身上的“大石”。目前有480万套美国住房处于止赎进程中,另据有关机构分析,如果美国房价回升10%,会有高达2000万套房屋被抛向市场。这不但给房价带来压力,也影响了建筑商的新建房屋开工计划。

从需求方面来看,美国经济复苏力度仍显不足,就业市场压力很难尽快缓解,抑制了消费者对住房的需求;房价持续下跌也令财富缩水的住房持有者捂紧钱包,不敢消费,削弱了美国经济复苏动力。两者相互作用,形成难以突破的“怪圈”。

这使得美国房地产市场陷入“房价下跌-止赎量上升-房价进一步下跌”的恶性循环中。据美联储最新报告,今年一季度末,美国业主持有的房屋净值占房屋价值比例已降至38%的二战以来最低水平。而在美国近4500万仍未还清房贷的房屋业主中,近四分之一业主拥有的房屋价值已低于贷款总额,另有5%的人即将步入这一行列。

这意味着,将有越来越多的“负资产”家庭不得不被迫加入房屋止赎大军。对于具有庞大衍生品分支的美国金融体系来说,居民消费能力下降造成房贷、车贷等衍生品附着的基础面临断供风险,成为美国金融体系巨大不稳定因素。

银行业噩梦未终

在次贷危机爆发前,美国新增房贷中有近七成贷款是可调息抵押贷款。通常来讲,此类贷款申请初期(通常为五年)实行比较低廉的固定利率,一定时间后其利率将参照一定的特定市场标准变动。

据美国媒体预计,可调息抵押贷款利率重置的最高潮将在2012年到来,并在此后一年内维持在高水平,也就是说,抵押贷款违约潮即将出现。罗素投资亚太房地产投资主管马丁・莱姆在接受中国证券报记者采访时预计,从现在起到2014年,美国将有约1.4万亿美元抵押贷款到期,这可能引发相当大规模的银行止赎。分析人士认为,贷款违约潮爆发将进一步加剧止赎问题,导致美国银行业更多的资产减计,给金融系统带来风险。

衍生品余毒未清

巨额衍生品余毒未清的“旧债”也远未了结。今年5月,有“新兴市场教父”之称的邓普顿资产管理公司执行主席莫比乌斯发出警告称,由于导致前次危机爆发的问题并未得到解决,新一轮金融危机不可避免。

“衍生品受到监管了么?没有。衍生品是否在继续增加?是的。”莫比乌斯指出,目前全球金融衍生品总额已经是全球GDP的十倍之多。如此大规模的“押注”将带来波动性,并有可能造成股市危机。

金融衍生品专家萨蒂亚吉特・达斯也表示,在刚刚过去的危机中,没有任何错误得到纠正,衍生品仍然具有“以光速传导危机”的风险,而“我们其实根本没有(给衍生品传导系统)装上断路机制。”一旦一家或数家牵涉衍生品业务的大型银行再次出现严重问题,将导致新一轮“雷曼式”灾难。

统计显示,在美国房地产和抵押贷款支持证券的泡沫破灭以前,证券化的债券及其衍生品总额占全球流动性的80%,约为全球GDP的5-6倍,以美元计总额在300万亿到 400万亿美元之间。而在危机爆发后,衍生品总额未降反升,目前总额已达600万亿美元,约为全球GDP的10倍。

中国宏观经济学会秘书长王建指出,如此庞大的金融资产,若仅发生5%的坏账就是30万亿美元,接近美国两年的GDP总和。

美债务危机暗伏

据IMF的报告,今年美国财政赤字占GDP比重将达10.8%,居全球主要经济体之首。标普预计,在最乐观情况下,到2013年美国财政赤字占GDP比例将达80%。

财政问题已成为悬在美国政府头上的达摩克利斯之剑。知名投资人吉姆・罗杰斯日前发出警告称,美国债务水平不断攀升,正接近爆发一场较2008年更严重的金融危机。

罗杰斯表示,过去三年美国政府花费大量资金,美联储不断印刷美元,但下次再出现问题时怎么办?“他们不能再令债务成倍地增长,也不能再印刷那么多美元。因此下次碰到的问题要严重得多。”

“制造另外一个泡沫给他们带来了解决经济问题的希望。”独立经济学家谢国忠对此表示。他预言,全球经济正朝着另一次危机迈进,其核心是政府债务危机。

事实上,对于美国爆发债务危机的担心已从“远虑”变为“近忧”。5月16日,美国联邦债务总额触及14.29万亿美元的法定上限,美国财政部从而进入“债务发行暂停期”。如果两党无法就提高债务上限的问题达成合意,美国政府将无法通过发行国债融资,这使得8月4日到期的300亿美元国债支付面临问题。而一旦美国倒债,其引发的市场恐慌将远超此前的欧元区债务问题。

中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所所长陈凤英对中国证券报记者表示,目前美国最大的问题是国库空虚,需要通过发行美元来解决问题,这将造成不负责任的危机转移。

无论是房地产市场还是劳动力市场,无论是抵押贷款支持的证券衍生品还是美国国债,其间任何一个因素的变化都有“牵一发动全身”的效果。可以说,美国经济面临的是“九连环”式的难题,拆解其中任何一环,都要有统筹全局的视野和足够的耐心,这绝非一日之功。

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