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2010 Housing Market Monitor:北美与欧洲
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文章时间: 2010-3-23 周二, 上午9:46    标题: 引用回复

March 23, 2010, 10:20 a.m. EDT
Existing-home sales fall for third straight month
'Second surge' needed or U.S. could be vulnerable to double dip: economist


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Resales of U.S. homes and condominiums fell 0.6% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million, the lowest level in eight months, raising doubts about the durability of the housing recovery, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

Sales of existing homes have thus fallen three consecutive months, a reversal after having risen steadily through the fall in response to a federal subsidy for first-time home buyers. The tax credit has been restored and expanded to repeat buyers, but there has been no increase in sales yet.

Sales are up 7% compared with a year ago, the NAR's data showed.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting a larger decline in February, to about 4.93 million on an annualized basis.

"We need to have a second surge," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate lobbying group. However, the jury's still out, he said.

"Has everything in the gas tank been used up?" Yun asked. "Or is this just a pause before the next step up?"

A double-dip recession is a "possibility" if a second surge of buying doesn't occur, he said.

The original tax break was set to expire on Nov. 30, a deadline that likely pulled forward many sales that would have taken place this year. Just before it expired, Congress extended and expanded the subsidy.

To qualify, sales must be signed by April 30, and the sale must be closed by June 30. Sales of existing homes are reported when the sale closes, not when a contract's signed.

Inventories of sales on the market jumped during February, rising 312,000 to 3.59 million, the highest since September. Yun said the January-to-February increase in inventory was much larger than usual in February.

Inventories thus represented an 8.2-month supply at the current sales pace, the most since August.

The median sales price was $165,100, down 1.8% compared with a year earlier.

Sales were up in two of four regions. Sales rose at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 2.8% in the Midwest and 2.4% in the Northeast, while sales dropped by 4.7% in the West and by 1.1% in the South.

Sales of single-family homes decreased 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.37 million, the lowest since June. Sales of condos rose 4.8%, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000.

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文章时间: 2010-3-24 周三, 下午8:44    标题: 引用回复

Radar Logic's Feder Interview About U.S. Housing Market

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Feder, chief executive officer of Radar Logic Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Carol Massar about the outlook for the U.S. housing market.
Blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures combined to produce the fewest sales of houses in the U.S. last month since record-keeping began in 1963, according to the Commerce Department.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.2 months’ worth, the highest since May, from 8.9 months.

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文章时间: 2010-3-24 周三, 下午8:53    标题: 引用回复

U.S. Economy: Durables Orders Rise, Home Sales Drop
By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaSRzeDLfB8o&pos=2


March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for durable goods rose in February for a third month and new-home sales fell to the lowest on record, indicating manufacturing will stay at the forefront of the economic recovery.

The 0.5 percent increase in bookings for long-lasting goods followed a 3.9 percent surge the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders advanced more than anticipated. Sales of new homes fell 2.2 percent to an annual pace of 308,000 in February, the Commerce Department reported.

Companies from Boeing Co. to Owens-Illinois Inc. are benefiting from business spending on new equipment, inventory restocking and a revival of global demand. Job creation is needed for a broadening of the expansion that would include sustained gains in consumer spending and a mending of the real- estate market.

“Manufacturing is in the lead in pulling the economy along,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. “If we get some job gains, which we think we will soon, there will be a pickup in home sales. We can’t bake a sustainable recovery until we get job growth.”

Stocks declined on concern government deficits will hamper a global recovery after Fitch Ratings cut Portugal’s credit rating. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,167.72 at 4:21 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note dropped, pushing up the yield to 3.85 percent from 3.69 percent late yesterday.

Blizzards, Foreclosures

Blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures combined to produce the fewest sales of houses last month since record- keeping began in 1963. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner yesterday said it would take a “long time” to repair the housing market.

Sales were projected to climb to a 315,000 annual rate in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Demand dropped in the Northeast, Midwest and South regions, likely due in part to winter storms.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.2 months’ worth, the highest since May, from 8.9 months. The median price of a new home in the U.S. increased 5.2 percent to $220,500 in February from a year earlier. The advance was the largest since September 2007.

Housing, the industry that triggered the worst recession in seven decades as the subprime mortgage market collapsed, showed signs of recovering in 2009 as an $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit boosted sales ahead of its originally scheduled expiration in November.

Economy’s Bright Spot

While housing has faltered in the last three months, manufacturing remains a bright spot for the recovery, and factories added workers to payrolls in January and February.

Orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment increased 0.9 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in January. Economists anticipated a 0.6 percent rise, according to the median of 45 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Overall bookings were forecast to rise 0.6 percent.

Last month’s gain was paced by a surge in aircraft orders and increasing demand for machinery and metals.

Boeing, the world’s second-biggest commercial-plane maker, said it received 47 orders in February, up from 10 a month earlier. Chicago-based Boeing last week said it will boost production in coming years to meet stronger demand as airlines rebound from the recession-induced travel slump.

Business Equipment

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, increased 1.1 percent after dropping 3.9 percent the prior month. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, climbed 0.8 percent after a 1.9 percent decrease.

Factories boosted durable-goods inventories by 0.3 percent, the biggest gain since December 2008. In a sign demand is starting to outstrip available resources, unfilled orders advanced 0.4 percent, the most since July 2008.

Growing sales in the U.S. and abroad, and the need to replenish inventories are also helping companies such as Owens- Illinois, the largest U.S. maker of glass containers for food and beverages.

We are starting to see the beginnings of a recovery, which we anticipate will extend through 2010 and 2011,” Chief Executive Officer Al Stroucken said in a presentation to investors on March 18. Stroucken said he expects “volumes to recover due to destocking having run its course.”


Last Updated: March 24, 2010 17:08 EDT

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文章时间: 2010-3-29 周一, 下午9:25    标题: 引用回复


房市没完
房价还有的跌。。。




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文章时间: 2010-6-05 周六, 上午8:55    标题: 引用回复

Some Inconvenient Truth about Housing Market
WSJ 6/4/2010


The withdrawal of federal tax credits for home buyers led to a steeper-than-expected plunge in May home sales in much of the U.S., as the housing market struggles to wean itself from government support.

Economists and real estate analysts expected home sales to slow after the tax credit, of as much as $8,000, expired at the end of April. But early data from real estate brokers indicate that the sales decline has been far more substantial than expected, with some markets showing declines of 25% to 30%.

The Hard Truth About Residential Real Estate

Anyone who believes that housing is on the rebound, and that now is the time to buy, should take a very hard look at the numbers I dredged up for my spring lecture and luncheon tour.

There are 140 million personal residences in the US. Today, there are 26 million homes either directly or indirectly for sale. According to a survey by Zillow.com, a real estate appraisal website, 20 million homeowners plan to sell on any improvement in prices. Add to that 4 million existing homes now on the market, 1 million new homes flogged by companies like Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Homes (PHM), and 1 million bank owned properties. Another 8 million mortgage owners are late on their payments and are on the verge of foreclosure, bringing the total overhang to 34 million homes.

Now, let's look at the buy side. There are 35 million who are underwater on their mortgages and aren't buying homes anytime soon, nor are the 35 million unemployed and underemployed. That knocks out 50% of the potential buyers. (应该deduct重叠部分,实际上 < 50%)Here is where it gets really interesting. There are 80 million baby boomers retiring at the rate of 10,000 a day. Assuming that they downsize over time from an average 2,500 sq ft. home to a 1,000 sq. ft. condo, and eventually to a 100 sq. ft. assisted living facility, the total shrinkage in demand is 4.3 billion sq.ft. per year, or 1.7 million average sized homes. That amounts to a shrinkage of aggregate demand for a city the size of San Francisco, every year.

You can argue that the following Gen-Xer's are going to take up the slack, but there are only 65 million of them with a much lower standard of living than their parents. Throw in the disappearance of state and federal first time buyer tax credit. You can count on a jump in long term capital gains taxes and state and local property taxes, further diminishing property's appeal. If you are looking for a final stick to break the camel's back, how about eliminating, or substantially reducing the home mortgage interest deduction? Add it all up, and there is a massive structural imbalance in residential real estate that will take at least a decade more to unwind.

We could be looking at a replay of the same 26 year period from 1929 to 1955 when prices remained flat, and we are only 3 years into it! A second down leg in the real estate market seems a no brainer to me, as is the secondary banking crisis that follows. Perhaps that's why hedge funds have been big sellers of the homebuilder's ETF (XHB).

What's a poor homeowner to do? Don't ask me. I sold everything in 2005 when my research threw up these numbers, and have been happily renting ever since. And, if the toilet blocks up, I just call the landlord.

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文章时间: 2010-6-05 周六, 下午8:11    标题: 引用回复


警惕商业地产添乱威胁美经济复苏

2010年06月04日 证券时报


  美国最近公布的住房销售数据亮丽,正当人们为新屋和成屋环比销售分别实现14.8%和7.65%的增幅而沾沾之喜之时,一场新的地产危机正在不远的将来。美国著名房地产市场调查机构RCA近日发布报告显示,今年第一季度美国银行业持有的商业地产抵押贷款违约率已达1992年以来的最高水平。

  对美国房地产市场来说,商业地产是一个潜在的危机源。商业地产危机的酝酿和发展滞后于住房市场危机。商业地产市场在2007年10月达到繁荣的顶峰后,在2007年末初现疲态,房价开始下跌,新增贷款规模缩减;至2008年第四季度商业地产贷款违约率急升;2009年迅速恶化,价格急转直下,市值损失约4成,违约率、空置率连创新高,这一趋势延续到了2010年。据穆迪公司提供的数据,截至今年3月,美国商业地产价格与2007年10月的最高峰相比,已经累计下跌了42.1%,而第一季度美国银行业持有的商业地产抵押贷款违约率达4.17%,高于去年第四季度的3.83%;违约抵押贷款总额为 455亿美元,较去年第四季度增加了37亿美元。

  美国的商业地产包括零售物业、办公楼、公寓、旅馆和工业设施如仓库等,市场规模6.7万亿美元,与商业地产业相关的债务总规模约3.5万亿美元,其中1.7万亿由银行持有,0.9万亿为商业地产抵押债券的抵押物,0.9万亿由其他投资者持有。总体看,为商业地产融资的主要是地方性的中小银行,而且其抵押贷款证券化的比重远低于住房市场。

  大规模商业地产危机有可能在2010年爆发。一方面,尽管与2007年峰值相比商业地产价格已下跌41%,但目前跌势还没有逆转的迹象;另一方面,商业地产相关债务的违约率要到2012年达到峰值。从目前到2012年,有价值1.4万亿美元的商业地产贷款将到期,其中有大量贷款为2007年所贷,而当时正是有毒资产最严重的时期。

  可见,未来数年都是商业地产的高危年份2010-2013年中将有约2万亿美元的商业地产抵押贷款到期,相当于过去15年之和。如果没有有效措施,未来4年银行的损失可能高达4300亿美元,并引发一系列连锁反应,甚至引发美国经济二次探底。

  一是加速中小银行倒闭潮。商业地产问题对金融系统的冲击小于住房贷款市场危机。商业地产贷款规模仅为住房地产11万亿美元规模的1/3,而且由于商业地产贷款的证券化比例仅为25%,远低于住房地产的60%,相较于住房地产贷款,商业地产贷款的风险更加集中于发放贷款的银行本身,且风险将集于中小银行。

  数据显示,商业地产市场崩盘导致中小银行破产的速度和规模都将十分惊人。当下,美国银行倒闭以“迅雷不及掩耳”的速度进行着:数据显示,2009年前五个月美国银行倒闭数量仅为36家,而2010年同期倒闭家数则有两倍之多。与去年相比,今年倒闭的几乎全部是中小银行。 Foresight公司等商业地产市场机构预计,2010年这一数字将超过200家,2011年超过350家,2012-2013年还将有500家中小银行倒闭。

  二是进一步恶化失业率。商业地产贷款问题恶化将威胁中小企业生存。中小银行为中小企业提供的贷款占中小企业贷款总额的一半。一旦这些银行因商业地产贷款问题而倒闭,将威胁大量中小企业的生存,进而推高失业率。目前全美失业总人数约为1530万。去年10月份,美国失业率达到10.1%的26年最高点,目前失业率虽已企稳,但如果商业地产恶化将冲击脆弱的劳动力市场。

  三是冲击州及地方政府财政。目前美国50个州中的47个州政府和许多市政府都面临不同程度的财政危机,债台高筑的纽约州、伊利诺斯州、新泽西州和加利福尼亚州尤为严重。商业地产税是州及地方政府的重要财政来源,中小银行是州及地方政府主要的贷款融资渠道,商业地产市场进一步恶化、中小银行加速倒闭,将使本已“负债累累”的州及地方政府财政状况进一步恶化。

 

  作者:张茉楠 (作者单位:国家信息中心经济预测部) 来源:证券时报

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文章时间: 2010-6-09 周三, 下午3:27    标题: 引用回复

June 9, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT

The housing-market recession is not over
Why you shouldn't be overly optimistic about real estate right now


CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- After years of hearing how home prices are plummeting and foreclosures are mounting, consumers want to feel hopeful about the housing market -- but maybe they're being too optimistic.

In a presentation to the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin, Texas, last week, Stan Humphries, Zillow.com's chief economist, pointed to four myths he said consumers are latching on to as they try to make sense of recent housing statistics.

The four myths:

1.

The housing recession is over. It's not, Humphries said. He estimates the bottom in home prices won't come until the third quarter, at least from a national perspective. Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae and also a speaker at the conference, agreed with that estimation.

2.

After markets hit bottom, prices will rebound to boom levels. Not going to happen, at least for a while, Humphries said. "Once we hit bottom, the bottom is going to be a long and flat affair across the markets," he said. "What we're going to see once we hit bottom is the second phase of the housing recession... that second phase is one of being flat."

3.

The worst of the foreclosure mess is behind us. More wishful thinking, according to Humphries. He estimates foreclosures will peak later this year, then remain elevated for a while. Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, said he doesn't envision foreclosure activity stabilizing until late 2011.

4.

The tax credits saved the housing market. With or without a tax credit, those who bought would have done so anyway, Humphries said. "The biggest impact [in home sales] we believe were low prices... low interest rates and the unsung factor here is the ramped up lending by the Federal Housing Administration."

Still, it's easy to understand why many homeowners want look on the bright side.

"They went from what everyone thought was a lucrative asset to something worth a lot less than they owed on it," said Douglas Culkin, president of the National Apartment Association, in a phone interview. "We all want it to get better," he said.

Some want to finally sell their homes and move on with their plans. And homeowners are tired of thinking their houses are bleeding equity, losing value like a new car driving off the dealership lot.

As for prospective home buyers, even if consumers are feeling confident enough to take an extra trip to Wal-Mart these days, many are not going to jump in and spend on a large-ticket item like a house, said Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

"The reality of the situation in which we find ourselves today has sunk in with people," she said in a phone interview. "If a foreclosure hasn't been a part of their life, it has been a part of someone else's life... and they've seen the pain that inflicts on the family."

That perception isn't going to fade quickly.

It makes sense to be gloomy

Despite statistics showing some housing-market improvement, there's still good reason for pessimism.

The most recent Case-Shiller report showed prices rose 2.3% in March, compared with March 2009. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that in April the median existing home price rose 4% in the past year; existing home sales were up 7.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million.

Read about Case-Shiller's March home-price figures.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-05-in-march-sp-2010-05-25-93900

See story on April sales of new and existing homes.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-rise-76-on-tax-credit-2010-05-24

While it's too soon to quantify the degree of the effect, the deadline for the home-buyer tax credit likely played into the numbers. Contracts needed to be in place by April 30 to qualify, and some economists say that incentive made buyers move earlier than they would have otherwise. Any bump from a temporary credit is soon over.

But there is another important reason to take improving numbers with a grain of salt: What people are calling "shadow" inventory.

That's primarily inventory that banks are holding, homes that have been foreclosed on but haven't yet hit the market. There are also severely delinquent homeowners who haven't entered foreclosure yet, but who will eventually get there. Right now, many of them are trying to work out some sort of mortgage modification.

Then there's this: The group of "sidelined sellers," or people who want to sell their homes but have waited for the storms to pass, Humphries said. About 7% of homeowners -- representing more than 5 million homes -- fall into this category, and are very likely to try and sell their home in the next year if there are signs of improvement, according to Zillow estimates.

Despite Humphries' theory that Americans are too optimistic on housing, there are plenty who still remain cautious. And if they're not looking at housing statistics with a skeptical eye, their personal economies are providing a reality check.

Most obviously, salaries for many Americans have been frozen or cut, and then there are the large numbers of people completely out of work, Culkin said.

According to a recent NFCC survey of more than 2,000 consumers, 49% said that if they were to attempt buying a home today they'd never be able to save enough money for a down payment. Coming up with a down payment has traditionally been problematic for first-time buyers, but it has spread to those who have owned before; many people are underwater in their mortgages, making it harder for them to get funds to move to another house.

Plus, today's buyers aren't only concerned about the ability to get a home but also their ability to keep it, said Duncan, of Fannie Mae. In the long run, that attitude is a good thing for the economy, he said.

"It's not just that we want a house," Duncan said, "but we will delay getting that house until we can afford to get it and afford to keep it."

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文章时间: 2010-6-14 周一, 上午6:14    标题: 引用回复

Encouraging news for bears... Mr. Green

The number of homes that closed in May are down more than 5% compared to April.

Newly signed contracts in May dropped more than 10%, a sign of a real estate drought this summer.

Internet searches on real estate sites are down 20% compared to this time in 2009.

While total foreclosure activity is decreasing, the number of homes being repossessed by the banks hit a new record high.

The percentage of luxury home sellers who dropped their asking price at least once over the past 90 day period went from 33 percent in mid February to 38 percent at the end of May.

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文章时间: 2010-6-15 周二, 上午7:17    标题: 引用回复


《华尔街日报》专栏:到底买房还是租房划算?

2010-06-15


A FRESH LOOK AT RENT VS. BUY, By BRETT ARENDS

(本文作者是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家,他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。)


虽然世界杯如火如荼,但房价走向也还得关注,很多日常的烦恼还是免不了。比如到底买房还是租房合算?华尔街日报6月3日刊登“砖家”文章回答了这个问题,题目是A FRESH LOOK AT RENT VS. BUY 。说是“砖家”,主要是观点来自美国房地产网站,不一定适合中国的guoqing(很多老外不懂的事,一说guoqing他们一般就不再问了)。这篇文章译文转载如下(英语原文附后):


不久前﹐住在美国迈阿密滩的一位朋友问我﹐能在这儿租房住﹐到底为什么还要买房呢? 买房的时代已经结束。出于工作的原因﹐他很快便搬到曼哈顿﹐并花 100万美元在上西区买了个Loft。

请注意﹐一种非常典型的作法。价格上涨时﹐人们想要买入﹐价格下跌时﹐人们变得更加小心。买涨不买跌的作法在逻辑上讲不通。週四公布的研究结果提供了一些硬数据。

房地产网站Trulia.com研究了美国的主要房地产市场并提出一个问题:买和租哪一个更划算?根据Trulia网站的计算﹐我的朋友恰恰犯了方向性错误。

Trulia网站说﹐在曼哈顿租房﹐这儿的房价太贵。旧金山也一样。在迈阿密买房﹐与租房相比﹐这儿的房价便宜。类似的地方还包括凤凰城、拉斯维加斯及其它大多数房价大跌后相对较低的地方。

这家公司认为﹐年租金的15倍左右是一个交叉点。换言之﹐一个城市的房价约相当于年租金的15倍时或许比较合理﹐这是经验之谈。例如﹐如果你每年花 10,000美元租一套房﹐那么买房的成本超过150,000美元时就要考虑再三。华盛顿特区智库经济与政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)经济学家贝克尔(Dean Baker)近年对这一问题的研究也得出了类似的结论。他说﹐15倍是历史均值。

那么纽约现在是多少倍呢?

Trulia网站说﹐纽约现在是32倍左右。在纽约市买一套两居室的共管公寓或联排别墅平均高达年租金的32倍左右。高于20倍的其它城市包括西雅图 (24倍)、旧金山(22倍)和俄勒冈州的波特兰(22倍)。

Trulia网站说﹐另一方面﹐迈阿密的登记价格现在约是年租金的八倍﹐凤凰城约为10倍﹐拉斯维加斯约11倍。

需要说明的是:Trulia网站的数据是基于登记价格而不是实际交易价格﹐因此价格可能过高。

此外﹐把交叉点定在租金的15倍或许偏低。

在昨天的谈话中﹐贝克尔说这一数值假定你将只在这套房子里住七年。这是人们在一套房屋里通常居住的时间。他说﹐如果你住得更久一些﹐房屋买卖的交易费用相对摊薄﹐重要性也降低﹐则购房的吸引力就变大一些。

尽管如此﹐Trulia的分析看来在方向上是正确的。经济与政策研究中心去年所做研究得出了类似的结论:即﹐与租金相比﹐纽约和加利福尼亚沿海地区的房价较贵﹐而那些房价下跌最猛的地方现在看来比较便宜。

Trulia的研究强调了两点。这两点完全正确。

首先﹐房主需要先非常认真地看看当前的现金流。为了当房主而买房毫无意义。如果租金比房价便宜很多﹐要三思而后行。

其次﹐房价跌幅最大的地区现在看来像是置业的好地方﹐而那些看似“最安全”的地方却并非如此。老话说:没有“安全”的投资﹐所谓安全只是风险还不明显而已。这条法则一再被人遗忘。

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文章时间: 2010-6-16 周三, 上午7:47    标题: 引用回复


营建许可/新屋开工:最新数据


8:30 am EST

U.S. May single-family permits lowest in a year

U.S. homes under construction record low 475,000

U.S. housing starts up 7.8% in past year

U.S. housing starts drop 10% to 593,000 pace in May

U.S. single-family building permits fall 9.9% in May

As expected, U.S. home builders sharply reduced construction as a federal tax break for home buyers expired, according to
estimates released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Housing starts(aka Permits for future construction)fell 10%
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate, suggesting a cruel summer.

Construction of new homes in May dropped 17.2% from April, significantly lower than forecast. Even the lowest home
mortgage rates in decades
are not doing much to invite deals. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that
applications for loans to buy houses were down by a third compared with last year. Applications are back to the level
of the mid-1990s, when the country’s housing market was smaller.

One reason for the above is that more and more new weds are choosing to rent, thanks the American is still young. The bull
can still interpret this as a potential accumulation of power. But when will the potential be released?


纯属误会 2010-3-29 周一, 下午9:25 写道:
房市没完
房价还有的跌。。。


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文章时间: 2010-8-19 周四, 下午3:23    标题: 引用回复


美金融危机回到原点 1120万套房困住2万亿美元

NT Times 2010-08-07


佛罗里达州圣彼得堡,对于43岁的亚历克斯?彭伯顿和46岁的苏珊?瑞柏乐斯夫妇来说,拖欠房贷已经成为了他们的生活常态,虽然这并不是他们所希望的,但是房价的持续下跌也让他们并不急于摆脱这种状态。“在24万美元的房屋贷款和现在只值14万美元的房子之间,我们能怎么选择,拖欠也许是我们能让生活继续的唯一方法。”彭伯顿说。

彭伯顿夫妇的遭遇,代表了全美国170万个家庭。更糟糕的是有250万个家庭彻底放弃自己的房屋所有权,选择了房屋止赎。截至2010年3月底,全美超过1120万套房屋处于资不抵债的状态。按照美国人口普查局给出的美国房价中间值最低价每套16.8万美元计算,1120万套房屋的价格大约是1.8816万亿美元,以美国房地产业惯用的10%或者零首付的房贷习惯,这些被地产商称为“溺水房”的损失最终很有可能都会被记在金融机构的账面上。

700万户“影子清单”

房屋库存需103个月清空

面对如此巨大的潜在危险,7月30日,格林斯潘,这个一手导演了美国房地产繁荣景象的前美联储主席发出警告,“若房价继续下跌,美国将发生双底衰退。”

由次贷危机引发的金融危机,两周年之后又回到了原点。

2 年前,美国房地产价格的大幅下跌冲击美国金融系统中的次贷衍生品,最终造成全球金融危机,奥巴马政府按方抓药,出台了一系列的措施,例如向贷款居民提供为期5年的冻结性抵押利率;向首次购房者和换房子者提供最高可达8000美元的税收抵免,甚至将“两房”收归国有,然而这场由低利率政策酝酿了近8年的房地产业的大病治疗起来并非那么容易。

按照现行利率和房价计算,在同一地区每月租房的价格只是整个房价的3%,而贷款买房的利率却是整个房价的 6%,也就是说买房所付出的钱是租房的2倍,这还并非是买房的全部花费,如果包括税收、维修和保险等购房必要花费在内,购房的花费将是租房的3倍。美国人口普查局在追踪了7500万套房屋后发现,其中49.3%都属于租赁状态,更为惊人的是房屋的空置率达到了创纪录的25%。

在决定房屋价格的关键问题供需平衡上,严重的供大于需的局面更决定了美国房地产市场的元气难以在短期内恢复。仅仅以2010年前5个月的160万套“溺水房”计算,其中至少将有24%近26.4万套房屋会被银行再次拿到房屋市场出售。除此之外,由于进入止赎程序到最终止赎,过程复杂和时间不定,银行并不会及时更新自己的止赎房屋数量,这部分房屋被银行列入“影子清单”内。据估算这些“影子清单”上的房屋数量将有可能超过700万户。分析师预测,如果按照现在的销售速度则需要花费103个月,大约8.5年的时间才能清空这部分庞大的库存。

与“溺水房”同时进入住房供应市场的还有“养老房”。据美国养老基金最新数据显示,在1945-1960年共出生的7000万“婴儿潮”一代,有三分之一没有任何退休储蓄,为了养老,在未来几年他们唯一能抵押的也就是他们现有的房产,而这部分房屋更多会进入到出售渠道,给美国的房屋供给带来压力。

截至2010年第一季度,美国房屋的库存量已经增至1140万套。而与之相对应的是成屋销售的不断下降。

8 月3日,全美地产经济协会(NAR)发布的6月成屋签约销售指数低于市场预计近2个百分点。6月成屋签约销售指数下降2.6%,至75.7,与上年同期相比下降了近20%。全美东北部、中西部、西部三个区域的房地产销售数据均出现下降,与2009年同期相比降幅均超过2位数。

“这一切都是创纪录的,只不过是在创纪录地下滑。在政府的购房抵税政策结束之后,美国的成屋销售估计将会跌至谷底。”美国市场研究机构维斯研究公司分析师迈克?拉尔森说。

10次新房开工高峰过后7次衰退

“美国经济会像房子一样安全。”曾经是房地产繁荣时期众多地产经纪人的口头禅,面对着持续下跌的房价,这个时代已经结束了。在房子不再安全之后,美国经济的危险也就随之而来。

作为占美国GDP比重10%的产业,作为美国居民消费增长的主要途径,房地产业的颓势将直接影响到美国经济的复苏后劲。

美国家庭、建筑商和售房代理以及金融机构是美国房地产业的三大构成主体,而这三大主体同时也构成了美国经济的核心。

就家庭而言,在住房抵押和贷款消费的双重压力下,美国家庭的负债已经由2000年初的6万亿美元增至2009年的13.6万亿美元,增长了127%。但随着房屋价格的下跌,美国家庭的资产将会严重缩水,面对巨额的负债,美国家庭的财务状况和消费能力都将受到严峻的考验。家庭消费能力的下降,对于70%经济增长都靠消费来拉动的美国经济无疑会造成重大打击。

作为连接建筑商和售房代理的中间关键环节,房地产业将起到承上启下的作用。房地产业的繁荣与衰退必对建筑业以及与其相关的一系列制造业造成重要影响。根据经济学家估计,仅仅在新房开工方面的下降就可能为美国GDP带来一个百分点的损失。在美国历史上,10次新房开工高峰过后有7次出现了经济衰退。此外,房地产对于就业的拉动效应也十分显著。在美国房地产业最为繁荣的2005年,仅建筑业平均每个月增加的就业机会就有2.1万个。

在拉动消费、带动就业之外,房地产业对于美国经济的命脉金融业的影响则更为“致命”。“美国的许多金融产品以及衍生品都是为房地产业量身打造的,房地产业与金融业的关系已经密不可分。”中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示, “此前房地产危机所引发的金融危机也已经证明了这一点。”

在赵锡军看来,美国房价的持续下跌给美国经济最严重的打击仍将出现在金融行业。 “此前,美国政府在清理房贷造成的有毒资产时采用的是拖延的方法,并没有对有毒资产剥离、重组。对于这部分资产美国政府更多的是寄希望于在房地产业回升之后再次打包销售。曾给美国经济造成严重隐患的导火索一直没有消除。”赵锡军说。

美联储最新公布的资产负债表规模已经达到2.3万亿美元,其中仅对“两房”的担保证券持有量就超过了1.1万亿美元。而据行业分析师估算,在银行系统内残余的有关住房和商业房产的抵押贷款的“有毒资产”规模也大约在2万亿美元至3.6万亿美元之间。8月2日,美联储主席伯南克在讲话中再次暗示有可能重启已经停止了4个月的国债收购计划。

“有毒资产”的隐患尚未排除,随着房价的持续下跌,美国的优质贷款也将面临威胁。德意志银行在自己的风险报告中对于美国的优质贷款也提出了警告。德意志银行认为到2011年,占美国房地产抵押贷款三分之二的优质贷款中将有41%出现资不抵债。

“旧的问题没有解决,新的问题在不断地产生,在美国政府没有找到能替代房地产业成为美国经济支柱的产业之前,任何想挽救美国经济不陷入双底衰退的思路都必须退回到解决房地产问题上来。房地产业才是这些问题的根源所在。”赵锡军说。

美国政府似乎也意识到了症结所在,8月17日,美国财政部将就解决“两房”问题召开专门会议。而在大洋彼岸,正在因房地产问题陷入政策两难的中国也再次表现出了决心。中国银行监督管理委员会将在7月对银行进行新一轮的压力测试,以评估房价下跌对中国经济带来的影响,该测试以房价将下降50%-60%为前提。

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文章时间: 2010-8-24 周二, 下午8:20    标题: 引用回复


美7月二手房销量跌27.2% 降幅创15年纪录

2010年08月24日

  美国房地产经纪商协会(NAR)8月24日宣布,7月份的二手房销量环比重跌27.2%,这一降幅创下了有关统计设立以来的最高纪录。二手房销量的重跌主要与联邦购房抵税政策的到期有关。

  NAR指出,7月经季调并年化的二手房销量为383万幢,明显低于6月的626万幢,其中独户房屋的销量创下15年来新低。上年同期的二手房销量为514万幢。7月未售出房屋的库存增长2.5%,至398万幢,这相当于12.5个月的销量,库存/销售比创下1999年末以来新高。

  据汤森路透集团的调查,经济学家平均预期7月的二手房销量将环比降至470万幢。今年初,许多购房者为享受最高可减税8000美元的临时性抵税政策而提前购房,他们必须在4月底之前签约才能享受这一待遇。因此,一些经济学家指出,本来可能发生在2010年稍晚时的大量购房行为都被提前到了今年前几个月进行。

  随着抵税政策的到期,房屋采购活动的下滑是预料之中的事情,而且这种情况正在发生。继今年4月二手房销量环比增长7.6%之后,5月这一销量下跌2.2%,6月重跌7.1%。

  虽然30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率处在美国进入现代社会以来的最低水平,但未来几个月中房屋销售很可能依然低迷不振。据房地美发布的资料,7月30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为4.56%,低于6月的4.74%,创下相关统计设立以来的新低。

  近来的经济数据表明,未来美国经济的增速可能再度放缓,而失业率依然维持在9.5%,处在27年来最高点附近。一些经济学家指出,除非经济出现显著改善,雇佣活动再度加速增长,否则美国房地产市场将持续疲软。NAR的首席经济学家Lawrence Yun评论道:“我估计未来三个月中房屋销售将维持疲软态势。”

  NAR报告部分细节

  7月二手房售价的中位值同比增长0.7%。此外,7月二手独户房屋的销量环比跌27.1%,二手公寓销量降28.1%。7月美国四个大区的二手房销量均环比下降,中西部的销量降35.0%,东北部降29.5%,西部为25.0%,南部为22.6%。

  低价抛售房屋的销售比例环比无明显变化,在全部二手房销量中占有约32%的比重。7月售出的全部二手房中,首次购房者购买了其中的38%,这一比例是过去12个月中最低的。全现金购房者的比例为30%,超过今年6月的24%。此外,7月售出的全部二手房中,投资者购买了其中的19%,超过6月的 13%。

  NAR的二手房销售统计在交易完成时进行。在美国,二手房交易的最终完成通常在签约后的一至两个月内

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文章时间: 2010-8-27 周五, 下午9:51    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 写道:

这个。。。房市没完,房价还有的跌。。。






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文章时间: 2011-3-28 周一, 上午9:00    标题: 引用回复

1989 年普通工程师的平均收入为5-6万,现在为10-12万,加上盖房材料人工大致翻倍,所以房市有 1989 房价 x 2 的支撑。
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文章时间: 2011-3-28 周一, 上午9:22    标题: 引用回复

03/24/2011, Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Phase Shift - The Next Leg Down in House Prices
Housing has supposedly "hit bottom." Perhaps it will drop abruptly in a phase shift to much lower valuations.

Way back in August 2006, near the top of the housing bubble, I suggested a two-part scenario for the housing bust: it would take eight more years to play out, and the declines would occur in sharp downlegs following a phase-shift model.

Phase Transitions, Symmetry and Post-Bubble Declines (August 2, 2006)

Here is the chart I presented at that time (08/2006) as a possible time model:


A few months later, literally at the top of the housing bubble in early 2007, I suggested that a mere 4% of homeowners defaulting could trigger a collapse of the entire U.S. housing market.

That is pretty much exactly what happened, for when the 4% who couldn't pay their subprime mortgages folded, they took down an exquisitely corrupt and vulnerable banking sector and the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy which had come to depend on it.

Can 4% of Homeowners Sink the Entire Market? (February 21, 2007)

As I noted in Phase Shifts, Stick/Slip and the Demise of Our "Socialist" Housing Policy (February 26, 2010), the "recovery" in housing visible in the chart below was entirely the result of a 99% "socialist" Central State intervention/prop job: the Federal Reserve bought $1.1 trillion of dodgy mortgages to mask the bad debt and keep interest rates low, and the Federal government flooded the housing market with fee money via subsidies and absurdly cheap, central State-guaranteed FHA loans.

Now that this massive Central State intervention has ended, housing sales and values are succumbing to gravity. home sales and prices fall:

The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of previously occupied homes fell last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million. That's down 9.6 percent from 5.4 million in January. The pace is far below the 6 million homes a year that economists say represents a healthy market.

Nearly 40 percent of the sales last month were either foreclosures or short sales, when the seller accepts less than they owe on the mortgage.

One-third of all sales were purchased in cash - twice the rate from a year ago. In troubled housing markets such as Las Vegas and Miami, cash deals represent about half of sales.

The median sales price fell 5.2 percent to $156,100, the lowest level since April 2002.

Sales of new homes tumbled 16.9% in February from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000, the lowest level since the series began in 1963.

The median price for a new home sold in February fell 13.9% from the prior month to $202,100, the lowest since December 2003.

Here we see the first phase shift decline and the "recovery," which is now rolling over.

I submit that the forces acting on price are mutually reinforcing to the point that price will drop rapidly in a second phase shift, with the target noted on the chart: a return to the price levels of 2000.

Once we get into the 2012-14 timeframe, then I expect a third phase shift will drop prices back to 1987 levels. As many observers have noted, bubbles don't retrace to historical averages--they over-correct to extremely low values.

What forces are working to push housing prices to new lows?

1. As I reported on Daily Finance, new mortgage broker compensation rules are about to wipe out independent, small mortgage originators and brokers. Mortgages will probably become harder to come by and more expensive as the "too big to fail" banks will consolidate their grasp on the mortgage market.

2. Interest rates will rise. Most financial analysts are supremely confident that the Fed can keep interest rates near-zero forever. I suspect their confidence is misplaced. As I discussed yesterday, the Fed has backed itself into a corner, where if it pursues QE3 then it will fire up inflation that will destroy profit margins and household purchasing power. If it ceases to buy U.S. Treasury debt, then interest rates will shoot up.

As interest rates rise, the amount of money home buyers can borrow drops. House prices follow this dynamic.

3. Income for the bottom 90% is stagnant. All the bogus "housing is now affordable again" charts floating around all base their rosy conclusions on median income, neatly avoiding the reality that the top 10% has garnered the majority of income gains. Factor out the top 10% and you find real incomes have actually declined for the lower 90%.

The same effect is true of the "wealth effect" powered by the speculative risk trade bubbles in stocks and commodities. These portfolio increases have only enriched the top 10% who own the vast majority of the financial wealth.

So yes, real estate favored by this top 10%--Manhattan, Westwood, San Francisco, etc.-- will hold its own as those benefiting from fat Federal contracts, Wall Street's renewed license to practice piracy, the bubble in lighter-than-air Web 2.0 stocks, etc. try to outbid each other, but for most housing, the support created by demand has just melted like dirty ice on a hot Spring day.

4. There are too many houses and not many buyers. The demographics are this: Baby Boomers are trying to sell to cash out or move, and the impoverished generations behind them cannot afford bubble-era prices. Just because prices have retreated to 2002 levels doesn't mean they're cheap--2002 was already a bubble, as you can see in the chart.

5. The Federal-supported "recovery" is in trouble, politically and financially. As long as the nation obeys the whip of the Fed and allows it to print $1 trillion to buy Treasury debt every year, then the travesty of a mockery of a sham can continue. But as I noted yesterday, this policy is destroying the dollar and the purchasing power of households. That game cannot run for long without political pushback. Saving the "too big to fail" banks and the Financial Plutocracy might be Item #1 on the Fed's list, but it ranks decidedly lower on voters' agendas.

6. Every investor who bought with cash because "this is the bottom" will 1) be underwater and anxious to sell and 2) be out of cash, having bet their capital playing "catch the falling knife" with real estate valuations.


Sorry, cash buyers: the knife is still falling.

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