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The Beauty of Trend Following
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Dr. $






加入时间: 2009/07/26
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文章时间: 2009-7-27 周一, 上午1:41    标题: The Beauty of Trend Following 引用回复

Keep/Add to the Winning Position, Sell the Laggard
Hello from Las Vegas. Las Vegas is hit with blistering wave of summer heat. It is hot hot hot. Folks look really sexy on the street ...

Market closed the last Friday with modest loss. The fact that a few big high profile stocks got hit hard combined with overbought market condition did not bring down much the big board shows how much stronger the underlying market is.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm1C48994eI/AAAAAAAAEQ8/U1qGn5fYe1g/s1600-h/Nsadaq_07262009.png

The market breath is in lock step with the big board moving higher.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm1DaqOzuwI/AAAAAAAAERE/qQyyFNq0PZA/s1600-h/NYAD_07262009.png

Market is overbought in short term. In strong bull market, overbought condition is not the reason to sell winning positions.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm1EmRTC5AI/AAAAAAAAERM/6OoH3n6Qtgo/s1600-h/NYAD_10_07262009.png

My Port


BIDU

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm0a1xInD-I/AAAAAAAAEQI/WFs9TP9NX6A/s1600-h/Bidu_07262009.png

GMCR

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm0dulT20PI/AAAAAAAAEQk/aeGR7L7c8E4/s1600-h/gmcr_07262009.png

NTES

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm04cTg2XYI/AAAAAAAAEQs/SyKl1AMqIhM/s1600-h/ntes_07262009.png

CISG


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm0bo2GJc4I/AAAAAAAAEQU/JpUvH8-k5-o/s1600-h/cisg_07262009.png



EJ

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm0c53vjWrI/AAAAAAAAEQc/Ncysns7VwJQ/s1600-h/EJ_07262009.png

CHLN

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxepSAiAfKo/Sm0_DLhjLEI/AAAAAAAAEQ0/zpmm8UqQOn0/s1600-h/chln_07262009.png


The following positions are sold,

CYOU

CYOU is too sloppy. The wide and loose price action is not something I like to see. Sell the position, move the fund to cash and other better performing stocks.



FUQI

FUQI offered the secondary essentially diluting the share value. There is no information on how much the secondary is priced. Sell now to move fund to cash.

In retrospect, I probably should keep 50% of the winning position.



ARST

The action is too sloppy. Sell!

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上一次由Dr. $于2010-6-02 周三, 下午7:21修改,总共修改了1次
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Dr. $






加入时间: 2009/07/26
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文章时间: 2009-8-02 周日, 下午9:42    标题: Keep It Simple, Sit with Your Gains 引用回复

You can see all the images from my blog,

http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2009/08/keep-it-simple-sit-with-your-gains.html



Keep It Simple, Sit with Your Gains
The Market

let's keep this market comments short. There has not been any material change since the market follow through on July 13.

The philosophy of my trading has not been focused on trying to guess where the market is going to do next, but rather trying to understand what the market is currently doing.

I take cues from the basic law of supply/demand. News events, Market comments from Wall Street, to me, are mostly noise. The economic indexes are all lagging indicators.

The market could top out in a week or next day, but until it clearly tells me so, I continue to hold my top gainers.

Remember the big money is made by sitting, not by trading. This is exactly what I did last week. I only made two trades, initiated a buy on UTA, sold half of CISG to lock in partial gains.

Let's focus on the big pictures,

* The housing stocks are in the bottoming process, which bode well for housing recovery. (XHB/ITB)
* 200MA of Major indexes (Nasdaq, S&P500) are flattening and curving up. With the golden cross of 50MA/200MA in June, a classic uptrend is established.

In the short term, the market continues to be overbought. The sentiment is a little frothy.

Let's watch what the market will bring us next week.

The Port

There is little action from me other than watching my core holdings.

BIDU

BIDU continues to act as the de facto leader of the Chinese market. With the Chinese stock market leads the world market to recovery, there is little doubt where the money is going. The price/volume action is very constructive. The fundamental side of the story supports the price higher.

Hold for now unless there is a material change of the market direction.


CISG

This little thin Chinese insurance company has enjoyed an enormous run since I entered my first buy on July 15. The high volume sell off last Friday could mean it could use some rest. Sell half.


GMCR

Could this little coffee maker be another Taser or HANS?

Beautiful stock! HOLD!




NTES

NTES is the strongest stock (with PWRD) in Chinese gaming market. In face of some chinese gaming stocks broke down last week (CYOU, SNDA), NTES continues to hold up rather well. Earnings will be out in two weeks.

Hold!


EJ and CHLN

HOLD




UTA

Another Chinese stock broke out a two month trading range on 07.28.2009. Group peer includes Ctrip and Priceline. Last quarter sales growth 72%, EPS growth: 75%. The stock is on the thin side with average trading volume of 400K.

Bought the first position on July 28, 2009 with pivot buy of 12.70.

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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2009-8-04 周二, 下午2:03    标题: 引用回复

anyone picked up UTA or EJ?

congratulations ...

let's see if they can hold the gains by close ...

remember ... the run has just started ...

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DaFo






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文章时间: 2009-8-04 周二, 下午2:17    标题: 引用回复

Dr,

我手头的是HMIN. 哈哈.

不过HMIN/UTA/EJ都是垃圾, 恶炒而已.
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DaFo






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文章时间: 2009-8-05 周三, 下午5:12    标题: 引用回复

DaFo 写道:
Dr,

我手头的是HMIN. 哈哈.

不过HMIN/UTA/EJ都是垃圾, 恶炒而已.



我手头这个HMIN这垃圾还变宝了, 突然爆出了很好的ER, 又涨
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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2009-8-06 周四, 下午2:30    标题: 引用回复

DaFo 写道:
DaFo 写道:
Dr,

我手头的是HMIN. 哈哈.

不过HMIN/UTA/EJ都是垃圾, 恶炒而已.



我手头这个HMIN这垃圾还变宝了, 突然爆出了很好的ER, 又涨


welcome to earning season ... things are totally expected ...

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文章时间: 2009-8-12 周三, 下午3:55    标题: 引用回复

nice action on EJ ... continues to hold

wait for NTES earning reports ... if there is any leads you can take, look at PWRD ...

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文章时间: 2009-9-22 周二, 下午10:23    标题: 引用回复

http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2009/09/growth-stocks-are-outperforming-which.html

Growth Stocks Are Outperforming ... Which Bodes Well For Continued Rally

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文章时间: 2009-9-23 周三, 下午2:16    标题: 引用回复

my port has a great day ...

top performer ...

cfsg
rti
rino

gold stocks are little weak ... continues to hold ....

I hold stocks for home runs ...

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文章时间: 2009-9-28 周一, 下午9:55    标题: 引用回复

Dr. $ 写道:
my port has a great day ...

top performer ...

cfsg
rti
rino

gold stocks are little weak ... continues to hold ....

I hold stocks for home runs ...


so what do you guys think of my picks ...???

Laughing

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文章时间: 2009-9-28 周一, 下午10:04    标题: 引用回复

going long GMCR

http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2009/09/enter-long-gmcr.html

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金太阳






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文章时间: 2009-9-29 周二, 上午10:46    标题: 引用回复

大波做事真是有意思得很,long要long最强的,short要short最弱的,结果老是一次次的被市场扇耳光。
在钱多多被打趴下了,现在大波跑高老庄去行骗,也就是看到茶馆人气低,没多少水,以为水平就低,好弄几个少不更事的骗骗。
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文章时间: 2009-9-30 周三, 下午12:43    标题: 引用回复

went long AONE @ 20.7

let's see if it can hold the gain ...

this market has more room to run to the up side ...

rino: Laughing
GMCR: Laughing

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文章时间: 2009-9-30 周三, 下午1:20    标题: 引用回复

金太阳 写道:
大波做事真是有意思得很,long要long最强的,short要short最弱的,结果老是一次次的被市场扇耳光。
在钱多多被打趴下了,现在大波跑高老庄去行骗,也就是看到茶馆人气低,没多少水,以为水平就低,好弄几个少不更事的骗骗。






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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2009-9-30 周三, 下午5:23    标题: 引用回复

Dr. $ 写道:
went long AONE @ 20.7

let's see if it can hold the gain ...

this market has more room to run to the up side ...

rino: Laughing
GMCR: Laughing


nice close with the mr. mrkt ...

AONE going higher ... cut loss today's low ...

sweet Laughing

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