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The Beauty of Trend Following
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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-7-28 周三, 上午3:35    标题: 引用回复

today is a boring day ... sometimes there is no need to over analyze the market, today is one of these days ...

I am only 30% invested, the rest is in cash ... If this uptrend proves itself, I will add more, otherwise I will scale back ...

stock investing should be easy ... don't make it complicated ...

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文章时间: 2010-8-03 周二, 下午2:25    标题: 引用回复

Is the market eying the mid-term election in Nov? Very likely, if the anti-business administration can be overturned in a big way, then I think we will have a big rally ...

so far so good. Market continues to go up in low vol. This will eventually cause some concern unless vol kicks in at some points.

My stocks are either going up or holding up ok without issuing sell signal. No complaints so far.

Top holdings,

JKS: 30%
NR: 9%
BIDU: 8%
CMG: 3%
CRM: 1%
LSCC: -4%
SWKS: -4%
fnsr: 0%

sold cavm for a 12% loss

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文章时间: 2010-8-04 周三, 下午5:11    标题: 引用回复

top holdings,

JKS: 40% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken@17.5, 40% gain)
NR: 16% ( 7.5 @ 21Jul2010)
BIDU: 10% (market open 26Jul2010)
CMG: 3.5% (market open 26Jul2010)
CRM: 3.5% (market open 26Jul2010)
SWKS: -3%
fnsr: 0%

cut loss:
LSCC: -7% cut loss
CAVM -12% cut loss

went long OPEN before market close ...

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文章时间: 2010-8-06 周五, 下午3:11    标题: 引用回复

Excellent day today. A minor distribution day for Major indices.

Looking at my holdings, i only sold some of NR to take profits ... the rest looks all fine. If you get urself ruffed up during the intraday and sold out of panic ... then today is a great lesson ... why u should wait until the close to get the real feeling what the markets want to do ...

could the market get sold off next week? sure, no body knows for sure ... but my stocks are telling me to hold them tight and sit ... look at BIDU, does it say SELLLLLLLL????? NO

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文章时间: 2010-8-08 周日, 下午11:49    标题: 引用回复

top holdings,

JKS: 42% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken 4Aug2010@17.5, 40% gain, ER on 16Aug2010, I may exit all my long position before ER)
NR: 10% ( 7.5 @ 21Jul2010, first profit taken 6Aug2010, 10%)
BIDU: 10% (market open 26Jul2010)
CMG: 3.0% (market open 26Jul2010)
CRM: 2% (market open 26Jul2010)



cut loss:

LSCC: -7% cut loss (sold after semis started to lag, and no upside progress on LSCC)
CAVM -12% cut loss (sold after the bad ER)

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文章时间: 2010-8-08 周日, 下午11:49    标题: 引用回复

tomorrow going long

NFLX
SPRD

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文章时间: 2010-8-09 周一, 下午4:56    标题: 引用回复

Nice action so far from the market. It would be very nice for the market to burst out of this little consolidation zone.

Top holdings as of 9Aug2010 market close

JKS: 55% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken 4Aug2010@17.5, 40% gain, ER on 16Aug2010, I may exit all my long position before ER)
NR: 14% ( 7.5 @ 21Jul2010, first profit taken 6Aug2010, 10%)
BIDU: 11% (market open 26Jul2010)
SPRD: 7% (market open 9Aug2010)
OPEN: 4% (before market close 4Aug2010)
CMG: 3.0% (market open 26Jul2010)
CRM: 4% (market open 26Jul2010)

Cut loss:
LSCC: -7% cut loss (sold after semis started to lag, and no upside progress on LSCC)
CAVM -12% cut loss (sold after the bad ER)

Today's trade,

LONG NFLX
LONG SPRD

SPRD is an add if it closes at HOD, reminder though its ER is going to be
12Aug2010, so keep the position managable ...

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文章时间: 2010-8-11 周三, 上午12:00    标题: 引用回复

Market was hit by a distribution day. All indices close well above the lows. 200MA looks like to be a support.

The rally coming off July low has been on low vol. This is a big concern as low vol rally is prone to high vol sell offs. Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the uptrend is intact. There are certainly tons of clueless traders out there calling for tops. The words "Emotional trading" are never in FatDaddy's checkbook.

More cards need to come out of the deck to suggest this rally mode is officially over. Right now, all my top holdings are saying HOLD ME.


Top holdings as of 10Aug2010 market close

JKS: 60% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken 4Aug2010@17.5, 40% gain, ER on 16Aug2010, I may exit all my long position before ER)
BIDU: 11% (market open 26Jul2010)
NFLX: 6% (market open 9Aug2010)
SPRD: 5% (market open 9Aug2010, first profit taken 5% 10Aug2010, reduce position due to upcoming ER)
MELI: 3% (6Aug2010)

Profit taken,
NR: 7.5 @ 21Jul2010, first profit taken 6Aug2010, 10%; sold all on 10Aug2010 10%;

Cut loss:
LSCC: -7% cut loss (sold after semis started to lag, and no upside progress on LSCC)
CAVM -12% cut loss (sold after the bad ER)
SWKS -4% cut loss due to no performance.

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文章时间: 2010-8-12 周四, 上午3:02    标题: 引用回复

This low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book ...


Very ugly sell off in high vol puts the market back into correction mode. The 6+ week low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book.

There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.

Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,

SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.

Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.

There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.

All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.

Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.

The idea of trend following is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. If those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.

No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.

Raise cash.

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文章时间: 2010-8-12 周四, 下午12:17    标题: 引用回复

Very ugly sell off in high vol puts the market back into correction mode. The 6+ week low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book.



There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.



Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,



SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.



Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.



There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.



All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.



Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.

The idea of trend following is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. If those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.



No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.



Raise cash.

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文章时间: 2010-8-12 周四, 下午3:08    标题: 引用回复

top gainers after the first buy,

NFLX: 12%; (9Aut2010 first buy; add more 10Aug2010)
BIDU: 5% (market open 26Jul2010; sold 75% on 11Aug2010)
OPEN: 4% (before market close 4Aug2010)
MELI: 1% (6Aug2010)


The numbers speak themselves ... gutone 的 sucker 们 open your ignorant eyes big ... LOL

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文章时间: 2010-8-13 周五, 下午3:00    标题: 引用回复

rolling over ... LOL

beautiful ...

when market starts the downtrend ... get out of the way ... u should not care about the couple percent of upside ... protecting capital should become your top priority.

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文章时间: 2010-8-16 周一, 下午3:19    标题: 引用回复

top gainers after the first buy,

NFLX: 16%; (9Aut2010 first buy; add more 10Aug2010)
BIDU: 7% (market open 26Jul2010; sold 75% on 11Aug2010)
OPEN: 7% (before market close 4Aug2010)




NFLX is a hold as long as the market does not have another heavy distribution day ...

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文章时间: 2010-9-01 周三, 下午11:11    标题: 引用回复

This market followed through to the upside indicating a possible tradable rally ... I am getting back to the market, currently holding the following,

TNA
ARUN
CMG
CRM
NFLX
GLD
EGO,

If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buy continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...

What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.

Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !

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文章时间: 2010-9-02 周四, 下午3:16    标题: 引用回复

top gainers,

NFLX 5% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 4% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
CMG 4% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 4% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
gld 1% (first buy 25Aug2010)

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