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The Beauty of Trend Following
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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-4-28 周三, 上午9:10    标题: 引用回复

Change of the market character?

Heavy distribution from the top. Are we embarking on a short term correction of 3-5% or an intermediate correction of 10+-%? No one knows, guess need not, let the market tell us what it wants to do. Either case, be prepared.

Several developments have called the market correction overdue,

First of all, top growth stocks have been quite extended. Look at AAPL or BIDU, the law of normality calls for correction.

2nd, bearish break downs in emerging market. Shanghai stock index has lead the word market out of the recession, but it has been lagging US market badly for the past 6 months. The technical picture of Shanghai Stock index looks very bearish, the deterioration of Chinese ADRs (except a few, e.g. BIDU, VIT, CTRP) over the past several months calls for deeper correction in Chinese market.

3rd, distribution days are piling up. Regardless what the news are which trigger the sell off, the unequivocal selling from big boyz should raise your alert level.

When market starts to correct, it is prudent to raise cash, move off margins, monitor closely the current holdings. In bear phases, next leaders usually emerge as the strongest candidates which go through shallower corrections and show stronger relative strength.

There is no need to sell out all your winners. If you enjoy a healthy gain of 20% in AAPL when it broke out of its last base on Mar 5th, you may decide to sit through the correction. The ability to hold on to big winners over time is the crucial step toward winning big $.

Remove margins, reduce risk, be defensive!

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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-4-29 周四, 下午5:20    标题: 引用回复

Excellent day for fatdaddy today, my top gainers continue to SIGNIFICANTLY outperform the market. The market, once again, proved that calling for tops is STUPID and shorting an uptrending market is a suicidal game.

DNDN 49% (03Mar2010)
AAPL 22% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
BIDU 19% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
GIL 15% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 15% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)

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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-5-03 周一, 下午3:31    标题: 引用回复

DNDN 65% (03Mar2010, partial profit taken @ 30Apr2010)
AAPL 22% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
BIDU 19% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
GIL 17% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 14% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy, partial profit taken @ 30Apr2010)

the numbers speak for themselves ... don't u think?

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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-5-04 周二, 下午5:11    标题: 引用回复

Continue to hold the following stocks, there is no reason to sell AAPL, BIDU, GIL and DNDN, pcln is a little shaky, but I will hold them all so far.


DNDN 65%-4% (03Mar2010, partial profit taken @ 30Apr2010)
AAPL 22%-3% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
BIDU 19%-2% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
GIL 17%-4% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 14%-4% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy, partial profit taken @ 30Apr2010)

Market goes into correction is not a reason to sell out your ports, remember the big money is made by piling your $$$ to winning positions ...

I am willing to sit through a 10% market correction if AAPL or BIDU undergo a normal correction ... have a vision and be patient!

LVS, if u have it, should be partially sold ...

UAUA should be sold partially as well, if this market correction goes further, 16-17 is the next stop ... when all the good news is priced in ... and airline continues to be a money losing business ... i see no compelling reason to own it ...

GLD/DGP continues to act fine ... i see no reason to sell gold ...

Top growth stocks, appl, bidu, dndn are acting just fine ... no need to sell ...

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文章时间: 2010-5-07 周五, 下午6:31    标题: 引用回复

Clearly we are entering a bear phase. I have liquidated all my longs except GLD/DGP.

In bear market, I take breaks.

So I will not update this thread until the bull returns.

I will never miss a bull market, so once I am back, the bull is back.

You guys have fun.

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文章时间: 2010-6-02 周三, 下午7:08    标题: 引用回复

This market has flashed a follow through day as Nasdaq went up 2.6% in higher vol. The signal should not be ignored even though the leadership is thin.


Going long tomorrow UAUA, DECK

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laodao



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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午3:26    标题: 引用回复

deck

这家公司真好啊。业绩这么好
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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 上午8:26    标题: 引用回复

see my comments in hutong9.com about this follow through

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=78425&rpid=1073608&fav=yes&ordertype=0&page=4#pid1073608

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文章时间: 2010-6-03 周四, 下午3:30    标题: 引用回复

so far so good, price followed through today, but not vol. Vol continuously track below 50MA showing big boyz are standing aside.

Low vol rally is not a big issue unless it meets with heavy doses of distributions ... so far the stocks I am monitoring and buying are acting like they are having a bull market ... so I am fine with what I have right now ...

Looking to add more exposures to the market.

currently holding: CSTR, VMW, UAUA, DECK, AAPL

CSTR and VMW are bought on 28May2010
UAUA/DECK/AAPL are bought on 03Jun2010

I do purchase on market opens.

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文章时间: 2010-6-04 周五, 下午3:01    标题: 引用回复

Awful action in stock market ... I was expecting this little bounce could last a week or two, but clearly this market needs a lot more to heal itself ... cash is the best place to be

Are we heading for double dip? When all the US stimulus is over, with Europe in down spiral, China is tightening, I wonder what else can pop up this market?

If China loosens again, I bet its real estate market will burst this time. LOL

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文章时间: 2010-6-06 周日, 下午11:25    标题: 引用回复

VMW和crm都是相关类型的公司,那个更好些?

CSTR的盈利模式我还没看懂。呵呵

请分析分析。。谢谢
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文章时间: 2010-6-07 周一, 下午10:58    标题: 引用回复

added more gld/dgp to my gold holding. My first gld/dgp buy was on 28Apr2010.

DGP 13% (first buy on 28Apr2010, add 07Jun2010)

I have nothing but gold in my acct.

this market continues to look awful. Cash is the best place to be.

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文章时间: 2010-7-26 周一, 上午7:22    标题: Marke starts a tradable rally ...? 引用回复

One thing I have learned in trading over the years is that you should always be ready for change in your market stance ... Over confidence or less of confidence in stock market is a killer for performance.

The market action over the last couple of days illustrates the importance of staying flexible in market views. Last Thursday, market reversed the Wednesday loss and gapped higher and Friday's follow through on bigger vol to the upside puts the market in a potential tradable rally. Nasdaq's vol on last Friday is the first over the last three weeks going above 50MA, indicating big boyz are stepping up to the plate. Well, there is no sure thing in stock markets, things definitely have brightened up a little for good.

There is no shortage of leadership breakout. The breakouts have been holding up, pointing to further price apreciation if the market can continue to ramp higher. The two top leading groups are cloud computing related represented by CRM, VMW, RVBD, NTAP; the other group is the fabless semiconductors represented by CRUS, ARMH, ALTR etc. Other breakout includes FFIV, ISLN, VIT, ROVI, ARUN etc.

Friday's big reversal on several big stocks should alert you to stay away from overlly bearish on the market. AMZN gapped down at the open more than 10% but closed near unchanged. The seeming broken down former leading stocks ISRG, CMG all rampped higher after earning release.

Economic sensitive sectors seem to be on the mend. Commodity stocks seem to find a bottom (at least in the short term bases). Construction and machinery stocks look to be basing nicely. These are all supportive to the health to the market rally.

I am willing to take a bet ... I am going to buy the following stocks on Monday. My capital commitment will be 30%

Fabless semi: CAVM, SWKS, LSCC
Retail: CMG
Cloud Computing: CRM

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文章时间: 2010-7-26 周一, 下午11:06    标题: 引用回复

我也跟crm。呵呵
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文章时间: 2010-7-26 周一, 下午11:50    标题: 引用回复

I have to say excellent action so far, but market might be overbought short term ... vol needs to come in to eventually pop the market up ... w/n vol coming in ... This market can't go much higher ...

but there are definitely a lot of good charts there and leadership really starts to kick ass which is a good sign ...

but anything can happy ... so don't take granted ... be prepared to exit if the market reverses for bad ...

I am going to add more to my existing positions

add a little more tomorrow to LSCC, SWKS, CMG.

I will leave CAVM alone because its ER is going to be July 28th.

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