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The Beauty of Trend Following
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Dr. $






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文章时间: 2010-4-06 周二, 下午11:47    标题: 引用回复

I don't normally give too much read on Worden report, but today's report strikes me on the three indispensable virtues of a good traders ...

do you have the patience to become a great trader?


Of the Ten Important Averages, only one was down (microscopically). The other nine were up in small fractions. The market simply went no place today.
Of the 16 Breadth Groupings, Fifteen were Indecisive, 13 Positive and two Negative. The lone warrior who was Decisive was Positive. In summary, Breadth had absolutely nothing to tell us.
On such days you can depend on the market to produce no Dominant PV Relationships--and it didn't.
It takes patience to come away this often with only time on our hands. But patience, after all, is one of the three indispensable virtues of a good trader or investor. And this one I did coin. The other two are confidence and humility.
There were no changes in the Trend Table. -DW

You may email Don or Peter Worden and/or any Knight of the Roundtable c/o support@worden.com.

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文章时间: 2010-4-07 周三, 下午1:06    标题: 引用回复

In bull market, what you often see is a constant calling for market tops; In bear market, you see the opposite.

In trend following, what you do is to make objective judgement on the current market conditions and ask yourself a question: are the major indexes acting poorly? are the leading growth stocks under severe distribution? If your question to both is no, then you sit tight with your winners.

In trend following, we don't care what the market will do tomorrow. We make no predictions and we do NOT anticipate.

Do we make projections on how high the market will go? I don't, maybe some do. Do we make projection on how much a leading growth stock will rise? yes, I do PE expansion to get me a rough idea what price a growth stock could reach in this bull run.

do we have a bull market as of today? yes. Do I care what the market will do tomorrow? I DON'T.

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laodao



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文章时间: 2010-4-07 周三, 下午8:29    标题: 引用回复

谢谢
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文章时间: 2010-4-08 周四, 下午3:03    标题: 引用回复

this market looks solid, my stocks are telling to hold ...
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文章时间: 2010-4-09 周五, 下午4:02    标题: 引用回复

Top gainers after March 1st follow through,

DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
AAPL 11% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
GMCR 14% (02Mar2010)
PCLN 9% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
GIL 7% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
BIDU 4% (piot buy 01Apr2010)
CISG 4% (first buy 23Mar2010)

It is not difficult to buy breakout in bull markets, what is the most difficult is to hold the winners to let them run their course.

There will be scare days, normal pull backs in the days ahead. The idea is not to be shaken out during these days. The utter most benefit of the doubt should be given to the growth leaders to allow them to rise to maximize the profits.

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文章时间: 2010-4-11 周日, 下午9:27    标题: 引用回复

继续持股
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文章时间: 2010-4-13 周二, 下午3:59    标题: 引用回复

nothing has changed ... hold the darn winners ... take a beer, sit tight and watch your winners grow ...
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文章时间: 2010-4-15 周四, 下午1:38    标题: 引用回复

this market is in full bull mode ...
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文章时间: 2010-4-16 周五, 下午3:57    标题: 引用回复

This looks like a normal pull back to me ...at least by the evidence presented as of now ...

There is no reason to sell aapl, bidu, gmcr, pcln etc

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文章时间: 2010-4-19 周一, 下午5:45    标题: 引用回复

A few development,

1. very bearish break down in Chinese market. Look at SSEC; The breakdown of some Chinese ADRs are the precursors to that ugly breakdown. If you look at TSTC, CAGC, CAAS, you can almost feel something bad is about to happen to chinese market.

2. Some leading growth stocks are acting iffy, although they have not broken down ... look at actions on GMCR and PCLN. There is nothing wrong with AAPL though.

In view of this, it is prudent to raise some cash, at least to get rid of margins.

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文章时间: 2010-4-21 周三, 下午1:57    标题: 引用回复

market consolidation is a good thing unless it flashes significant topping signals ...

in each bull market ... there are usually several 3-5% normal (sometimes sharp) pull backs ... when your stocks (such as AAPL or BIDU) are not showing signs of significant top ... there is nothing to worry about ...

Wall Street SMALL fishes tend to think the big gains are made by buying/shorting every market fluctuations ... they NEVER understand the big money is made by SITTING not TRADING ..

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文章时间: 2010-4-22 周四, 上午1:57    标题: 引用回复

Top gainers as of today

AAPL 18% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
GIL 13% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 8% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
TPX 6% (21Apr2010)
BIDU 5% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)

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文章时间: 2010-4-22 周四, 下午4:59    标题: 引用回复

Excellent excellent market close!!! great follow through on AAPL and TPX

Stay away from top calling ... ride the trend. Lock the gain once the trend is over ... until then ... sit tight with your AAPL ...

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文章时间: 2010-4-23 周五, 下午3:15    标题: 引用回复

do i need to list my top gainers again ...???? lol

I leave it to next time, but my super fat AAPL is about 25% now ...

My target on AAPL is 320+-

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文章时间: 2010-4-25 周日, 下午10:05    标题: 引用回复

Top gains as of last Friday's market close.

Continue to hold all winners ... When market tops, growth stocks will tell you ...

AAPL 25% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
DNDN 19% (03Mar2010)
GIL 16% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 10% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
TPX 7% (21Apr2010)
BIDU 7% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)

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