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2010 Commodity:金银、铜铂、糖棉、油气
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文章时间: 2011-5-13 周五, 下午3:43    标题: 引用回复


FED和COMEX联手杀银牛历史的重演

回避对家风险,远离融资杠杆。过分的债务就是毒药。那次银牛被宰了后30年都没有翻身,这次好不容易冒出水面几天又被宰了。

七十年代末FED还是有非常大的动力杀银牛的,因为美元和金银的关系,还没有象现在这样脱得一干二净。现在,黄金和白银也就是名义上
比大豆小麦之类的好听一些,没有哪个国家还愿意将自己的货币和金银挂勾,而放弃发债印钞这个大杀器的。

不过那个叫什么,以史为镜,可以知兴衰,以人为镜,可以知得失。


-----------------------------

H.L. Hunt's Boys and the Circle K Cowboys
By Larry LaBorde
http://www.federalobserver.com/archive.php?aid=7185

January 26, 2004

Author Larry LaBorde and his wife Puddy both live in the South with their two almost grown children and Haley the
wonder dog.

(Editor's Note: Shortly after sharing this story with the audience of my daily radio broadcast, Perspectives on
America, I received an email from a friend of Bunker Hunt. Hunt is still alive, and is recovering from the effects of
chemotherapy. We wish him well - he is a pioneer in many respects - no thanks to the government that screwed him
more than once. - J.B.)


Nelson Bunker Hunt @ Wikipedia Smile



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文章时间: 2011-5-13 周五, 下午5:16    标题: 40年白银期货价格宏观走势图:Silver Spot (Yearly Chart) 引用回复


40年白银期货价格宏观走势图:Silver Spot (Yearly Chart)

Osama bin Laden v.s. Nelson Bunker Hunt - 32 Years Apart

银价已经做好了一个完美双顶,拖下来的打压手法也如出一辙。除非短炒,捞底放着高风险。

$SI_F 双峰就象那高耸的WTC双子塔。。。呵呵,银mm你大胆地往前走,莫回头,啊,莫回头。




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文章时间: 2011-5-15 周日, 上午3:04    标题: 引用回复


从15年月线图上看,CRB正在做一个巨大的头肩顶,值得好好关注后市走势:



“如今在商品期货大牛市已经持续了十一个年头的时候,世界上最大的大宗商品交易公司 Glencore 的IPO马上就要开始上市发行了,这是否意味着商品期货市场的鼎盛期即将过去?关于这个问题只有事后才能得出确切的答案。”

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文章时间: 2011-5-19 周四, 上午11:16    标题: 引用回复

Gold Investors Choose Bars Over ETFs In Q1
by BMG Article Editorial on May 19, 2011


世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)表示,央行第一季度黄金需求激增,而且此担忧因素将支撑黄金价格。

With many question marks over the safety and security of gold ETF’s, in terms of how much gold is actually owned, investors are switching into the safety and security of physical gold in record numbers. The World Gold Council reports that buying of physical investment products helped lifted overall bullion demand by 11 percent in the first quarter. Conversely, the WGC said ETFs recorded their first net quarterly outflow since mid-2007 in the first three months of the year.

Total coin and bar demand rose by 52 percent or 125.5 tonnes to 366.4 tonnes in the first quarter. Gold investment increased by 26 percent in tonnage terms to 310.5 tonnes, helping raise total bullion demand to 981.3 tonnes from 881 tonnes.

Eily Ong, research manager for the industry-funded WGC, said she expected this trend to persist throughout the year. “We have had geopolitical unrest in the Middle East/North Africa region, the ongoing uncertainty and concern about sovereign debt issues (in Europe), and continuing global inflationary fears around the world,” she said. “In China and India, they are still trying to hike interest rates to combat inflation,” she said. “All these provide a very suitable environment (for gold investment).”

Central banks were also major gold buyers, adding 129.3 tonnes to their holdings, up from 58.8 tonnes in the first quarter of last year. Until recent years, central banks were net suppliers of gold to the market. The scale of central bank purchases in the quarter, coupled with a slight drop in scrap supply, pressured supply down by 4 percent to 872.2 tonnes in the first quarter.

Overall prices should remain underpinned this year by concerns over the global economy and geopolitical unrest, the WGC said.

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文章时间: 2011-6-04 周六, 下午7:25    标题: 引用回复


35年最大苦旱 欧洲预警粮荒

自由时报|2011-06-01


欧洲北部地区最近遭遇三十五年来最严重旱灾打击,带动国际粮食价格攀升,导致数百万人陷入贫穷境遇,面临粮荒。德国农民要面对小
麦枯黄、甜菜歉收,法国全国一半地区亦已实施限水。欧洲多处地区的农民都因为这次旱灾而损失惨重,多国出现饲料短缺问题,德国南
部巴伐利亚州的啤酒花和英国东部的穀物也都严重歉收。

法国限水 德国无雨 英国高温

气象学家表示,欧洲北部过去两个月降雨量比平均少了五十%,温度则比平均温度高了摄氏四度。目前法国一半以上地区限水,热浪影响
作物收成,乾旱严重到直逼一九七六年的程度。英国同样感受到气候威胁,今春各地气温居高不下,伦敦等地均温达摄氏十.三二度,创下
一六五九年以来的春天纪录。

德国今年春天一样很热,日照时间是往年两倍,部分地区降雨量更只有往年的五%,德国农民协会发言人亚当斯表示,小麦枯黄、甜菜几
乎长不出来,黑麦乾到「捲曲、奄奄一息」,「我们非常需要下雨」。

对法国中部利穆赞市(Limousin)的农民马基斯来说,以前每逢这个季节,他的牛早在山坡上大啖青草了,可是今年不一样,他的牛只能嚼
着为冬天储备的乾草,因为这裡连月乾旱,原本应该青葱翠绿的草地,现在放眼望去尽是枯黄一片。马基斯每天睡不好觉,烦恼是不是
该降价卖牛,免得秋末牧草用罄,到时想养也没得养。

有这种困扰的,马基斯不是唯一一个。欧洲北部正经历一九七六年以来最严重的乾旱,农人抗议、消费者不满、预算紧缩,正为西方国家
带来强烈冲击。

法国牧人开始卖牛卖羊,积累的不满情绪,也引发抗议行动。法国西南部上週有农人因无法取得汲河水使用的临时许可,封锁通往公路的
道路抗议。为平抚农人情绪,法国政府已要求布鲁塞尔提早发放欧盟补助金,法国农民工会也希望取得无息贷款,助农民度过漫长的炎夏。

欧洲、中国与美国等地接连乾旱,首当其冲的就是粮食储备,食物专家原本希望欧盟国家今年能有四%到五%的小麦与大麦储备,不过这
个目标将因为乾旱无法达成。联合国粮农组织(FAO)表示,六月收成,将是观察粮价转趋平稳或持续攀升的重要指标。欧洲此时发生旱
灾,对已饱受金融危机困扰的国家而言,更是「雪上加霜」,财政预算更添压力,更难对受灾农民增拨援助,造成恶性循环。


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.iask.ca/news/china/2011/0531/74002.html

湘鄂皖数百条河因旱断流 洪湖核心区水深0.3米

南方旱情重创水产业 水产公司劝退上千名员工

浙江各地降水异常偏少 舟山岛水库的水仅能撑1个多月,6月1日起限时供水







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文章时间: 2011-6-05 周日, 上午9:01    标题: 引用回复


观测金价:


过去十年里,金价自年初之年底有某种规律性。 Jonathan Kosares
撰文对此进行了阐述,该文发表在 usagold.com。 下图来自该文。
http://www.usagold.com/analysis/doldrums-2011.html



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文章时间: 2011-7-08 周五, 上午9:48    标题: 引用回复


棉市高处不胜寒 冲高减仓探低在望

2011年07月08日


经济增速回落态势仍在延续,为企业去库存再添压力;政府大幅下调包括混纺布、亚麻纱线等纺织原料的进口关税;纱、布销势持续低迷,纺织企业库存压力加大等,也加大棉花市场面临的调整压力。中储棉指出,目前国内市场下游产购销未见起色,纺织集团下调4级皮棉采购价格,令现货价格走低,前期表现较为坚挺的新疆棉也未能幸免。与此同时,棉纺织企业继续低价抛售产成品库存,纯棉纱价格延续跌势;PTA产能扩张导致其价格大幅下跌,涤纶短纤行情受到拖累。中储棉同时指出.

另一方面,美国棉花实播面积同比增长25%,增幅大于预期;澳棉、巴西棉和西非棉全面进入市场、印度增加出口配额;但现货需求持续低迷、欧元区债务危机难解等因素,国际棉价继续振荡回落。截至7月3日,本年度印度新花累计上市量达520.2万吨,同比增长5%,其中北部产棉区的新花已全部上市。从目前情况来看,预计本年度新花上市量有望超过美国农业部的最新产量预测521.9万吨。截止7月7日,盛泽市场纯棉纱C32S普梳主流报价为30100元/吨,较前日跌100元/吨。

点评:昨日美棉继续回落。国内下游纺织需求疲弱,现货指数报价继续下跌,销售依旧困难。而且随着7、8月份银行业务还贷趋紧,纺织企业继续大量倾销,棉纱类整体行情将维持跌势,棉花企业为回笼资金将出现硬性亏损积极销售情况,中期看对棉花将形成持续打压。昨日郑棉1201合约郑棉1201合约冲高回落,短线继续测试23000上方压力,中期延续震荡探底走势,短线看有继续反弹之势。操作上,短线进出,观望为主。

目前评级机构对欧元区其他国家债务评级持续下调。美国经济恢复缓慢的状况延续,市场关注的焦点在中国。最近国家总理温家宝讲话、中国人民银行报告,均强调调控通胀仍是首要任务。7月6日央行宣布年内第三次加息。笔者认为,此举印证了决策层视通胀为调控首要目标,远没有到放松境地的局面;同时,此次加息,势必对国内目前资金面,尤其是部分行业如纺织行业资金雪上加霜。

  其次,棉花基本面而言,利空有望深化。当前,下游消费不佳的状况进入了新阶段。第一,下游企业进入新的一轮降价抛售过程,但消化库存状况仍无好转,多数企业预计要到三季度末才能出现改观;第二,自3月份尤其是4月份以来的国内纺企限产停产寻找替代品等,带来棉花消费量实质缩减,有望在年度后期对资源的供需形成重大影响;第三,现货市场进入了低位抛售阶段,部分囤棉企业受农发行催贷、新花上市前担忧价格续跌等各种因素,开始降价销售,但问津者寥寥;第四,截至7月中旬,我国新疆、黄河流域等地区新花长势良好,只要8月、9月份不出现恶劣天气,新花有望提前上市,顺利接轨本年度棉花资源,而开秤价格可望向国家制定的收储价靠拢,成为大概率事件。

  再者,外盘前期反弹,更多是多头的救命稻草。不过,6月30日美国公布美棉种植面积同比增加25%达到1373万英亩,远超市场预期。即便考虑美国德州弃耕率达到50%左右,美国新棉产量目前最低预估也在350万吨以上。考虑中国、印度以及澳棉、巴西棉丰产,新年度棉花资源供应宽松度明显好于本年度水平。

   中国方面,中国棉花协会预测2011 年棉花种植面积增加8.39%,高于此前增加5.1%的预测。另一个棉花产量大国印度的棉花种植面积今年将达创纪录的1250 万公顷而且,上周美国中南部包括德州南部棉区获得降雨,亦提升苗情,后期美德州棉花有进一步改善的基础。数据方面,纽约期棉投机净多头率截至7月1日已连续四周减持,美国农业部公布的美棉销售报告持续维持负签约量的尴尬水平,尤其是2011/2012新花签约量也维持地量,因此外盘近期持续下跌,进一步考验113美分附近关口支撑,并有下破寻找110美分甚至更低的可能。

  最后,从技术以及资金面角度观察,今年2月份以来行情震荡性波段大幅走低,多空力量间往往最终以空方获胜,最重要的一点就是顺势而为。在综合不利因素影响下,市场大肆增仓短线反弹,料难以持久,而新低平台下探似乎也已经不远,值得期待.


棉花分类,短绒棉,一级棉(这个类别是主要于牛仔裤和工业用棉如帆布)

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文章时间: 2011-7-11 周一, 上午11:49    标题: 引用回复


咖啡股

















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文章时间: 2011-10-24 周一, 上午2:18    标题: 引用回复


卡扎菲毙命 明春全球油价将大降

2011-10-23


最新一期「贝伦金融周刊」报导,利比亚独裁者格达费上周身亡预料将有助于利比亚恢复原油供应,对油价带来下跌压力,该周刊大幅下修2012年春季的平均油价至每桶110美元。

报导说,贝伦原本预期秋季展开的油价长期多头走势,已因为全球供需因素的消长而改变。贝伦在7月的封面报导曾预测,西德州中级原油与布仑特原油的平均价格,到2012年春季将攀至历来最高的每桶150美元,但现在看来这个价位实现的可能性已很小。油价可能不会从本月平均的每桶95.90美元下跌多少,但2008年7月创下的历来最高平均价133美元,预料不会在2012年重现。贝伦预测,油价到年底可望维持在上周约100美元的水准,然后到明年春季逐步上涨到110美元。

贝伦大砍油价目标40美元、从150美元降到110美元,理由何在?从需求面看,虽然包括中国和印度等新兴经济体对原油需求仍然强劲,但代表欧美等已开发国家的经济合作发展组织(OECD)的需求已明显疲软。OECD国家占全球原油消费超过一半。贝伦的油价目标原本假设美国国内生产毛额(GDP)将成长3%,现在则下修至2%;欧洲的成长则从微幅成长下修至持平。OECD的原油消费在2010年出现比前一年成长,但2011年和2012年很可能都减退。

另一个新因素预料将对欧盟的需求带来进一步的压力:欧元兑美元汇价下跌。由于原油以美元计价,如果欧元对美元贬值,以欧元购买原油的价格将因而上涨。如果贝伦对欧元将继续贬值的预测正确,对欧盟的原油需求将是雪上加霜。

从供应面看,利比亚今年初以来的政治动态,已使该国每日减少150万桶的优质原油供应,如今格达费身亡可望使原油供应逐步恢复到昔日水准。据摩根士丹利商品研究部主管阿里迪纳预测,利比亚的石油供应到年底将恢复到正常水准的三分之一,到2012年再增加到三分之二。

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文章时间: 2011-12-21 周三, 下午12:21    标题: 引用回复


中国11月份大宗商品进口强劲反弹

2011年12月21日


周三公布的海关数据显示,中国11月份大宗商品进口强劲反弹,铜、铁矿石、糖和棉花进口量均接近纪录高位,证实了之前的初步估计。

在国内房地产市场疲软及外部宏观经济形势不利的情况下,进口状况能够间接反映作为全球第二大经济体的中国的制造业的健康状况。

分析师称,9月和10月大宗商品价格回落鼓励了逢低买进,提振了发货量,这印证了有关中国经济正经历软着陆的预期,而没有像市场观察人士此前担忧的那样出现急剧下滑。

分析师称,11月进口量的跃升也可能是由于该月的工作日多于10月份。

中国11月精炼铜进口量增至343,926吨,为当月历史上第二高水平,仅较2009年6月少35,017吨,受到了年底合约项下发货量及价差优势等因素的提振。

伦敦金属交易所铜价9月份和10月份分别下跌了24%和大约7%,相比之下,上海期货交易所铜价9月份下跌了22%,但10月份上涨了10%。

海关还证实,中国11月份进口铁矿石6,420万吨,较10月份增加了29%,为当月历史第三高水平。

渣打(Standard Chartered)在一份研究报告中称,中国最新公布的数据意味着一些钢厂已经重启闲置产能,而9、10月铁矿石价格下跌也鼓励了钢厂逢低买进。

但海关数据还显示,来自印度的铁矿石供应在下降,1-11月份印度出口中国的铁矿石量同比下降了24%。相比之下,同期来自巴西和澳大利亚的铁矿石进口量分别增长了10.3%和11%。

11月玉米进口量较上年同期大幅上升,达到244,756吨,为2011年当月第二大进口量,仅低于10月份,主要受玉米收储活动提振。11月份97%的玉米进口来自美国,其余来自老挝和缅甸。

但1-11月份玉米进口量较上年同期减少24%,意味着今年中国玉米进口量可能最多与去年持平。

11月糖进口量较上年同期增长17倍以上,至418,392吨,创下当月历史第二高水平。进口量最高的月份为2011年9月的468,868吨。

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank, RBK.YY)在一篇报告中称,在当前种植年度,作为全球最大糖消费国的中国的糖产量可能连续四年无法满足国内需求。

11月棉花进口量较上年同期增长两倍,至378,124吨,为1月份之后今年月度棉花进口量第二高。

Chuin-Wei Yap

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文章时间: 2011-12-29 周四, 下午1:36    标题: 引用回复


天然气又到了一个反转点附近。


油气价格比率OGR在其新高32已经盘亘了两天,$NATGAS的价格跌至关键的$3心理支撑位。

油气价格OG Ratio(WTIC/NATGAS)三年走势图:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC:$NATGAS&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t01367512043&r=9035


下面是几个天然气的ETFs及其相关股票走势图:











抄底天然气,做多油气股,一周之内分批买入,这部分资金配比
NG期货 : NG ETFs : 油气个股 = 25% : 15% : 60%



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文章时间: 2012-1-03 周二, 下午7:22    标题: 引用回复



Notes
Season begins in August of year indicated and continues until July 31 of the following year.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service
Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR



美国花生价格飙升至历史高点

英国《金融时报》 杰克•法尔基


花生的价格已今非昔比。由于花生主要种植区的持续高温天气和严重干旱,这种酒店小食品的价格已飙升至创纪录高点。

2011年,美国花生价格上涨近两倍,而在最大进口地的欧洲,价格则上涨了60%。每年价值约为185亿美元的全球花生业,受到了全球第二大生产国印度、主要出口国阿根廷以及美国供应下降的影响。

美国人对花生价格上涨的感受最深——这已迫使零售商大幅提高了花生酱的价格。花生酱是厨房橱柜和食品银行的一种主要食品。美国食品制造商,比如Planters品牌所有者卡夫(Kraft)和Jif花生酱制造商JM Smucker,上月将花生酱价格上调了30%-40%。

美国农业部花生专家比尔•乔治(Bill George)表示:“你只能等着,现在把花生酱抹得薄一些,用得时间更长些,以坚持到明年”。

花生是一种生长在地面的豆科作物,在种植和生长期需要潮湿的土壤。

美国花生种植地区连续两年的干旱,已极大地降低了零食和糖果中所用的花生品质,因为植株在花生成熟前已经枯萎,或是果实稀疏。

根据美国农业部的数据,美国花生产量今年将下降12%,导致全球花生库存降至14年来的最低水平。

全球最大的花生种植国中国今年获得了丰收,产量比年度平均水平高出7%左右,填补了美国产量下降的缺口。格拉维特表示:“我们正在从中国收购花生以供应美国。”他补充称,市场上缺少高品质的花生。

译者/何黎

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文章时间: 2013-4-23 周二, 上午1:06    标题: 引用回复

纯属误会 时间: 2012-1-03 周二 写道:
美国花生价格飙升至历史高点
英国《金融时报》 杰克 法尔基

花生的价格已今非昔比。由于花生主要种植区的持续高温天气和严重干旱,这种酒店小食品的价格已飙升至创纪录高点。

译者/何黎



原文标题: A Bumper Crop and Chinese Go Nuts
原文地址: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578428862496641112.html


网上找到的唯一翻译,差强人意。或者读原文,或者将就看。



A Bumper Crop and Chinese Go Nuts
【华尔街日报】作物大丰收, 中国大疯狂

By CAROLYN CUI

[原创-翻译] 李阿土 2013-4-20 17:28


(本文标题下并列着4个书签,分别为文章,幻灯片,股价,评论,因译文结构所限,本文以自上而下的方式排列,其中股价区原文无内容_译者注)


ALBANY, Ga. — Mei Guan had never seen so many Chinese customers at her Hong Kong Café in 10 years of operation. She wondered what brought them all to this small city in southern Georgia, because "there's really nothing to see in Albany," she said.

佐治亚州奥尔马尼--关梅从未见过如此多的中国顾客光临她经营了10年的香港咖啡馆,她想知道是什么带他们来到这个南佐治亚的小城市的,因为"奥尔巴尼这里没什么可看的",她说.

They came for the peanuts.

他们为了花生而来.

A stream of Chinese nationals began arriving in the peanut-farming region last winter, causing a frenzy in a $4 billion U.S. industry. With six-figure checks in hand, the Chinese are expected to scoop up 300,000 tons of peanuts this year—half of expected U.S. exports.

络绎不绝的中国国民从去年冬天开始来到这个花生产区,造就了一个40亿美元规模的美国产业疯狂,怀揣着6位数的支票,中国人期待今年从地里挖出30万吨花生,并期望一半能够出口.

The influx of Chinese means Georgia's peanut-shelling companies have been on hiring sprees to staff up factories that are running 24 hours a day, some seven days a week, to keep up. There aren't enough trucks to ship all the peanuts to the port in Savannah, where containers sit full waiting for weeks to get onto vessels for Asia. U.S. exports are expected to double over last year.

中国人的涌入意味着佐治亚州的花生脱壳公司要一直敞开招工以增补24小时运转的工厂,一些要保持一周七天无休,没有足够的卡车运输所有的花生到萨凡那的港口(美国佐治亚州东部的港口城市_译者注),那儿堆满了为装上前往亚洲的船只已等待了数周的集装箱.美国的输出被期待比去年翻一番.

China's appetite comes from a combination of cheap prices in the U.S. after a record crop last year—up 84% over 2011—and ravenous demand in China for peanut oil. The result is a welcome boost to peanut-growing regions from Georgia to Oklahoma.

中国的胃口来自于以下综合因素,美国去年创纪录的丰收_比2011年增加84%_之后的廉价,以及中国对花生油的贪婪需求,这导致了一个受欢迎的推动力使花生种植区域从佐治亚延伸到了俄克拉荷马.

"To have a single source to buy this huge volume of peanuts is a dream for us," said Bob Parker, president of the National Peanut Board, an industry group representing peanut farmers.

代表花生种植业者的行业组织_国民花生董事会主席鲍勃.帕克说,"单一的客源购买如此庞大数量的花生,对我们而言就象一个梦".

Peanuts were rarely on China's shopping list before last fall, particularly from the U.S. due to high prices and long shipping passages. China itself leads the world in peanut production, growing about eight times what the U.S. does.

去年秋天以前花生很少出现在中国人的采购清单上,尤其是对美国,因为价格高,路程远.中国自己的花生种植和生产规模是美国的8倍,位居世界前列.

China only recently started buying peanuts from other countries like India as its appetite for peanut oil and other peanut products expanded. Chinese consumers burn about three million tons of peanut oil, considered a high-end cooking oil, exceeding the country's output of 2.3 million tons. It is also used in medicines, lotions and cosmetics.

中国仅在近来开始从印度等其它国家购买花生,这出于对它对花生油的喜好和其它扩展的花生产品.中国消费者燃烧了大约300万吨被视作高端食用油的花生油,这超过了本国230万吨的产量,它还被用于药物,洗涤剂和化妆品.

The American Peanut Council, which promotes U.S. peanuts, never considered China a prime customer, instead targeting Europe, Canada, Mexico and Japan, said Patrick Archer, the council's president. He added that Chinese buyers generally care more about price than quality so some U.S. producers worry this could be a fad.

旨在促进美国花生产业的全美花生理事会从未考虑过中国是一个主要顾客,相反他们的目标是欧洲,加拿大,墨西哥和日本,理事会主席帕特里克.阿彻这样说. 他额外提到,中国买家通常关心价格甚于关心品质,所以一些美国生产者担心现在的情况可能只是一阵风而已.



(图片说明:标题为重大的花生市场,第二行为中国不是典型买家,直到近来价格下跌,柱图是2011年8月至2012年7月间美国对各国的花生出口量,单位是千吨,曲线图是花生价格趋势,单位是美分每磅__译者注)


Previously
Chinese Demand Reshapes U.S. Pecan Business

先前
中国人的需求重塑美国山核桃贸易
(这里是一个延伸阅读的链接:http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704076804576180774248237738-lMyQjAxMTAzMDEwODExNDgyWj.html __译者注)

The shift kicked off last winter, when Chinese distributors, roasters and peanut-oil processors became drawn to falling U.S. prices, which declined by more than half to 46 cents a pound in December compared with $1.15 a year before. The dip was due to the surge in supply but also weaker demand in some markets.

转变开始于去年冬天,当时中国经销商,烘烤业者,花生油加工业者开始拉低美国的价格,此前一年的价格是1.15美元每磅,但在11月时降低超过一半至46美分一磅,这个价格下跌一是因为供应量的激增,二是因为其它市场需求疲弱.

China's alternative source, India, was imposing export controls, making it a less reliable supplier. Meanwhile, in Albany and other towns in Georgia's peanut-growing regions, trailers and barns were overflowing with peanuts after the usual storage bins overflowed, said Tyron Spearman, executive director of the National Peanut Buying Points Association.

中国的替代货源印度经常利用出口管制,使它成为一个低可靠度的供应者,同时,在奥尔巴尼和佐治亚州的花生种植区的其它城镇,在常规的储存仓被装满后,拖车和谷仓也被花生塞满,泰伦.斯皮尔曼说,他是国家花生买点协会的执行董事.

Albany, the birthplace of the late singer Ray Charles, is a short drive from a number of shellers including American Peanut Growers Group and Birdsong Peanuts. Some Chinese buyers showed up to put down cash advances, while other executives made the trek to inspect the production and shelling sites in person.

奥尔巴尼,已故歌手雷.查尔斯的出生地,距离诸如美国花生种植者组织和鸟鸣花生公司之类的花生脱壳业者的大量工厂只有短短的车程,一些中国买主在此露面,放下预付现金,然后其他的执行主管们亲自跋涉着去检查生产和脱壳现场.

Terry Shamblin, president of American Peanut Growers, which is 60 miles from Albany, said he has received several groups of Chinese visitors. "They would sit and talk for hours about how the U.S. peanut industry handles things," he said.

The new customers kept prices from falling farther and the deluge of orders was felt along the peanut-producing food chain.

美国花生种植者组织距奥尔巴尼60英里,其主席特里.夏布林说,他已经接待了几拨中国访客,他说,"他们愿意坐下来谈几个小时关于美国花生产业如何做事."
这些令价格大跌和订单泛滥的新客户被感觉到在探寻花生生产的食物链.

"The Chinese have come in, and really stretched the U.S. shelling capacity to its max," said Sidney Levy, a peanut broker in Atlanta.

In the U.S., a dozen or so shellers act as middlemen between farmers and end users like peanut-butter and candy makers including J.M. Smucker Co.and Hershey Co. as well as companies abroad.

奥尔巴尼的花生经纪人西德尼.雷维说:"中国人已经来了,真的把美国的脱壳能力撑到了最大."
在美国,许多这样的脱壳业者担当农场主和最终用户间的中间人,这些最终用户包括盛美佳公司和好时公司,也有海外公司.

Since December, shellers have added shifts and hired workers to keep from being overwhelmed by demand. So far this year, 1.6 million tons of peanuts have been shelled, 25% more than a year ago, government data show.

In Donalsonville, Ga., the American Peanut Growers group said that about 15% of its business this year would come from China; it had none last year. The company plans to shell 122,000 tons of peanuts this year, 22% more than what they did in 2012, Mr. Shamblin said.

12月份以来,脱壳业者已经增加生产班次和雇工以避免被需求压倒,政府数据显示,今年迄今为止,160万吨花生已经被脱壳,超过前一年25%.

佐治亚州多纳斯维利,美国花生种植者组织说今年他们的业务的大约15%将来自中国,去年则没有,今年公司计划脱壳12.2万吨花生,比2012年多22%,夏布林先生如此说.

Tony Gunter, export sales manager at Clint Williams Co., a sheller in Madill, Okla., said he had to turn down some new Chinese orders to get existing customers their peanuts on time.

But China's appetite is just too big to ignore. Mr. Gunter said he is planning to visit China to meet clients. "The day will come when they are a regular customer," he said.

托尼.甘特是位于俄州马迪尔的脱壳公司克林特威廉公司的出口销售经理,他说,他不得不推掉一些新的中国订单以及时满足现有的客户.
但是中国的胃口大到不能去忽视,甘特先生说他打算去中国拜访客户,他说:"他们成为老主顾的日子就要来了."


Slideshow

In Demand: Peanuts
China is buying up a massive portion of the U.S. record crop of peanuts this year at cheap prices - enough to double the amount of exports of a typical year and create an economic surge in Georgia's peanut-growing farmland.

图片区
需求旺盛:花生
中国正以便宜的价格购买美国今年丰收了的花生的很大一部分产量--这足够是其它典型年份的输出额的两倍,并且在佐治亚州的花生种植农业区创造了一个经济激增.



(图一)
Raymond McCrea Jones for The Wall Street Journal
雷蒙德.麦克雷,琼斯为华尔街日报(下同_译者略)

Peanut grower Ray Morris plowed peanuts at his farm near Leesburg, Ga. The Chinese are expected to scoop up 300,000 tons of peanuts this year—half of the total expected U.S. export.

花生种植者雷.莫里斯在他位于佐治亚州里斯堡附近的农场中犁出花生,中国人期待今年从地里挖出30万吨花生,并期望总量的一半供出口.



(图二)

Terry Shamblin, president and CEO of The American Peanut Growers Group, walked through the cold storage facility in Donalsville, Ga., where shelled peanuts are stored. APGG is one of several peanut shellers in the southeast to see a sharp increase in demand from Chinese buyers.

美国花生种植者组织的主席兼CEO特里.夏布林穿行在位于佐治亚州多纳斯维利的寒冷的储藏设施间,这里储存着脱壳花生.美国花生种植者组织(APGG)是美国东南部的几个花生脱壳业者之一,它已看到来自中国买家的需求激增.



(图三)

Peanuts loaded in to large sacks are kept in cold storage until they are shipped. There aren't enough trucks to ship all the peanuts to the port in Savannah, Ga., where containers full of them sit waiting for weeks to be packed onto Asia-bound vessels.

被装入大型麻布袋的花生保存在冷库中直到发货装船,没有足够的卡车运输所有的花生到萨凡那的港口,那儿堆满了为装上前往亚洲的船只已等待了数周的集装箱.



(图四)

Peanuts worked their way through a flat-screen shaker at APGG's facility. China has only recently started buying peanuts from other countries, as its appetite for peanut oil and other peanut products has expanded. The oil is used for cooking, and in medicines and cosmetics.

APGG的设备,花生正在通过一个振动平筛机,中国仅在近年来开始从其它国家购买花生,这出于对它对花生油的喜好和其它扩展的花生产品.这种油用于食用,药物,洗涤剂和化妆品.



(图五)



APGG uses five of these $200,000 machines, which scan and sort each peanut for imperfections. Last year's U.S. crop grew 84% from the prior year—and was shoved into trailers and barns after the usual storage bins overflowed—causing lower prices. That helped to fuel China's appetite.

APPG使用5台这种价值20万美元的机器,它们能筛选出每个不合格的花生,去年美国的农作物比上年度增产84%__在常规的储存仓被装满后,它们被强塞进拖车和谷仓__这导致价格降低,有助于给中国人的胃口加油.



(图六)

Scott Miller, chief quality officer for APGG, looked at a gravity separator at the Donalsonville facility. Because of Chinese demand, peanut shellers have been on hiring sprees to staff up factories they are running 24 hours a day—some seven days a week—to keep up.

斯科特.米勒, APGG的首席品质官,在多纳斯维利的设备边看着一台重力分离器.因为中国的需求,花生脱壳来者要一直敞开招工以增补24小时运转的工厂,一些工厂要保持一周七天无休.



(图七)

Last winter, Chinese distributors and roasters inquired on the Internet for shipments from shellers in Georgia, Virginia and Oklahoma. The Chinese were drawn to falling U.S. peanut prices, which declined to 46 cents a pound in December compared with $1.15 a year before. Pictured here is a sizing shaker.

去年冬天,中国经销商和烧烤业者就从花生脱壳业者所在的佐治亚州,维吉尼亚州和俄克拉荷马州出货在网上询价.中国人拉低了美国的花生价格,相对一年的价格1.15美元每磅,在11月时降低至46美分一磅.此图是一台大小分类振动器.



(图八)

Each year, Chinese consumers burn about three million tons of peanut oil, considered a high-end cooking oil, and exceeding the country's output of 2.3 million tons.

中国消费者每年烧掉大约300万吨被视作高端食用油的花生油,这超过了本国230万吨的产量.
(译者:花生油是人体燃料么?用烧一词.图片明明是大豆油,不学中文也不行)


*********************************************************************************************


Comments(19)
评论(19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall Dillon Wrote:
There goes the price of peanut butter again if the Chinese gobble up all our peanuts.
4 Recommendations

如果中国人吞噬了我们所有的花生,花生酱又得涨价了.
4 顶
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
herman unanski Wrote:
Sounds like a "win-win" to me. Let's see if Obama can screw up this deal!!! Nancy Pelosi is trying to come up with a plan to tax peanuts! Joe Biden thinks they are cashews!
20 Recommendations

我听着象是"双赢"啊,让我们看看,是否奥巴马能搞砸这桩生意!!!南希佩洛西正在设法提议一个花生税的计划! 拜登副总统想着它们是腰果!
(拜登爱吃腰果么?__译者)
20 顶
-------------------------------------
1 day ago..
Jeff Catlett Replied:
He will demand background checks on those nuts:)
8 Recommendations

他(指奥巴马)将要求对这些坚果作背景调查Smile
8 顶
-------------------------------------
1 day ago..
Tom Topar Replied:
Good one!!!!
2 Recommendations

说得好!!!
2 顶
---------------------------------------------------
1 day ago..
John Beauregard Replied:
win win lose lose
The Chinese win
US peanut growers win
US consumers lose (higher prices)
US taxpayers lose (just like cotton, rice, sugar, potatoes, corn, wheat and milk; peanut growers are heavily subsidized.)
This is the *precise* moment to stop all peanut subsidies. Prices are high therefore the loss of the subsidies will be felt less.
15 Recommendations


赢赢输输
中国人赢
美国的花生种植者赢
美国消费者输(更高的价格)
美国纳税人输(就象棉花,大米,糖,土豆,玉米,小麦和牛奶,花生种植者得到了大量的补贴.)
这是"精确的"时机去停止所有的花生补贴了,(如果)价格高,因此失去补贴将没啥感觉.
15 顶
------------------------------
1 day ago..
Tom Topar Replied:
Right John,as usual the taxpayer subsidizes everyone including the Chinese
3 Recommendations

赞楼上一个,象往常一样,咱们纳税人补贴包括中国人在内的每个人.
3 顶
-----------------------------
1 day ago..
Victor Cook Replied:
He'll demand we use peanut oil in our engines.
1 Recommendation

他(指奥巴马)将要求咱们的引擎使用花生油.
1 顶
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 days ago..
Jay Sigel Wrote:
It's Pres. Carter's fault.
2 Recommendations

这是卡特总统的错(因为卡特总统决定向农业提供大规模补贴么?__译者注)
2 顶
--------------------------------
1 day ago..
Marshall Dillon Replied:
No wait, you mean its Bush' fault. That's what we've been brainwashed to believe by the O White House these last 4 years.
3 Recommendations

别吞吞吐吐,你的意思它是布什的错,那就是过去4年我们被奥黑的白宫洗脑所相信的.
3 顶
-------------------------------
1 day ago..
Andrew Palacios Replied:
Clever.

楼上的楼上聪明啊.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 day ago..
Hubbard Morris Wrote:
A clear case of agile shopping by Chinese buyers. Gladly we have the goods to sell. This wave of demand leading to capacity expansion is a win for both Americans and Chinese. It's interesting, by this article's account, that the desired product is peanut oil, with no mention of peanut butter.
4 Recommendations

中国买家的精明是一个清楚的事实,很高兴我们有东西可卖.这一波需求带来的容量扩充对美中两国都是胜利.有趣的是,按这篇文章的解释,被渴望的产品是花生油,没提到花生酱.
4 顶
------------------------------
1 day ago..
Tom Topar Replied:
It peanut butter were included they would have to buy all the sugar and salt!

花生酱被包括了,他们还要买走所有的糖和盐!
-----------------------------

1 day ago.
Alex Grove Replied:
I think peanut butter is only big in the US and maybe some parts of Europe. Chinese chefs add peanuts to fried dishes and use the oil for stir-fry but the idea of a PB&J sandwich seems a little bizarre to them. I guess peanut butter is our Vegemite.
3 Recommendations

我想花生酱只是在美国和一些欧洲国家用得多,中国厨师把花生用在爆炒的菜中,或使用花生油炒菜,一个花生酱三明治的点子对他们而言看似有点奇怪,我猜花生酱只是我们的酱料.
3 顶
----------------------------
1 day ago..
Douglas Rubin Replied:
.
Chicken "paws" (the feet) have been a wonderful export match as well. In China, they're a delicacy, sort of like our Buffalo Chicken Wings, but here they are clearly eschewed.
We produce and eat a lot of chicken and the feet are not as desirable for consumption within the US. Trade is a wonderful thing and we are fortunate to have the productive Chinese people purchase from us.
3 Recommendations

鸡的"凤爪"(鸡脚)也是一个神奇的出口产品.在中国,它们是美味,有些象我们的布法罗鸡翅,但这东西他们都避而远之.
我们生产和食用大量的鸡肉,鸡脚在美国是不值得要的下角料,贸易是件奇妙的事,我们幸运的是有富有成效的中国人从我们这里买(这些)东西.
3 顶
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 day ago
ROLAND GONG Wrote:
.
Exporting is always good to offset the bi-national trade deficit, doesn't matter crop, scrap, auto and plane. US ordinary workers need job and money, hi-tech doesn't help them much so far.
3 Recommendations

出口总是好事,可以抵消两国间的贸易逆差,别担心农产品,废料,汽车和飞机,美国普通劳动者需要工作和钞票,目前为止高科技还没帮上他们.
3 顶
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 day ago..
David Duma Wrote:

"Chinese consumers burn about three million tons of peanut oil, considered a high-end cooking oil, exceeding the country's output of 2.3 million tons. "
Huh? You don't really mean burn it?
2 Recommendations

"中国消费者烧掉了大约300万吨被视作高端食用油的花生油,这超过了本国230万吨的产量."
嗯? 你不是真的指烧掉吧?
2 顶
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 day ago.
Jaime-Axel Ruiz Baudrihaye Wrote:
.
Good news for Senegal!
2 Recommendations

塞内加尔的好消息! (塞内加尔被称为花生之国__译者注)
2 顶
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 day ago..
Kevin Berman Wrote:
"To have a single source to buy this huge volume of peanuts is a dream for us," said Bob Parker, president of the National Peanut Board". Did Bob Parker retire from the Price is Right? Seems the Chinese think so.

"国民花生董事会主席鲍勃.帕克说,单一的客源购买如此庞大数量的花生,对我们而言就象一个梦".鲍勃.帕克放弃要价是正确的吗?看起来中国人就想这样.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 hours ago..
Charles Hall Wrote:
.
I grew up in Donalsonville many years ago and have fond memories of peanuts growing in the fields (and fresh boiled peanuts in the fall). I have known Mr. Shamblin all my life. I am glad for him and the fine men and women in South Georgia who continue the tradition of growing peanuts. I wish them well.

多年以前,我在多纳斯维利度过了我的青葱岁月,广阔的田地里,花生苗在阳光下茁壮成长的美好记忆仍留在我的脑海里(还有秋天里那鲜美可口的水煮花生),我终生都与夏布林先生相交相识,我为他和南佐治亚的那些好男人好女人而欣喜,他们延续着花生种植的传统,我祝福他们.

http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-183546-1-1.html


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文章时间: 2013-6-01 周六, 上午1:37    标题: 引用回复

China's Power Consumption Growth Since 2007


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性别:性别:男
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文章时间: 2013-7-26 周五, 下午7:59    标题: 引用回复


[原创] How to choose different gold markets to play?

bobcat 发表于 2009-11-4 11:30 AM


Let us compare three different instruments for gold play,

1. Gold mining stocks (stock market),
2. Gold futures (futures market),
3. Spot gold (FOREX market),

based on the following considerations.

(a) Tax
For 2 and 3, 60% of the gain is taxed as long term,
regardless your holding period and regardless you long or short.

(b) Leverage.

The leverage of 2 or 3 is much higher than 1.

(c) Cost

The cost of buying stocks may vary from person to person, account to account.
Thus I will not discuss about it.
The ask-bid spread for 3 is in general larger than 2, and since you always trade
against the dealer, you always "pay" the spread; but there is no commission for the trade.
For 2, you pay a small commission. For the spread, since you do not trade against the dealer,
you may "gain" the spread, and therefore the cost of 2 in general is lower than that of 3.

(d) Trade or Hold (only for 2 and 3)
If you trade short term, because of what explained in (c) above, 2 is a better choice than 3
for lower trading cost. But if you plan to hold for a longer period of time, 3 is better
because you don't need to rollover to new contracts and therefore the cost is lower. In fact, my
own long play has always been 3.

(e) Interest
Most brokers nowadays don't pay interest for short proceeds.They pocket it themselves.
For 3, you get or pay an interest daily depending on your trading directions. However,
there is a small borrowing/lending spread charged by your broker against you.
For futures, the interest is built in and so there is no interest spread.

(f) Regulation Protection
Stock market is more regulated so that you are better protected for the failure of
the brokers or the clearing firms. Futures market is less regulated than stock market
but better regulated than Forex market.

(g) Correlation to the stock market (an important point)
I first make the assumption that you want to long gold regardless the stock market. Under this assumption,
if the stock market is strong, 1 has advantage because the gold mining stocks are more likely
to go up with the stock market. If the stock market is weak, 2 or 3 is a better choice.


You may also consider gold ETFs (for mining stocks or for gold commodity) for convenience.

The symbol for gold spot in FOREX is XAU/USD

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